We have all seen the News Headlines and poll after poll of what people think. There was a new housing Poll conducted March 24^th through April 3rd. The conclusions in that poll is not that much different from all the previous media  headlines and stories that have been finding their way into our homes across the country.

Polls are conducted to get people's perceptions and opinions and if this poll reflects anything, it is that the Poll seems to run counter to the noticed increase in sales activity in many markets around the US.

Here are the highlights of the poll, including some of the poll analyser's extraordinary comments.

1. One in seven mortgage holders feel that they may soon fail to make their monthly payments" and" even more fret that their homes value is shrinking". That is approximately 14% expressing a worry of missing payments. I need to stop right here. With all the talk of government bail outs and everyone of late that has a program, is it any wonder that people are believing they may fail and maybe be able get in on the relief program. Are we losing sight of the fact they WE are the government. It makes me mad as____ , well, you know the expression, that so many may be thinking this way.

2. "More than a quarter of homeowners ,30%, worry their home will lose more value over the next two years". From what I can tell of the many sellers who are currently on the market, they must not be in this group. I suspect that they may not have been participants of the poll either. 

3. They quote one person who would like to buy a bigger home but won't because he may " lose thousands of dollars on his present home". This statement makes no account for the fact that as that may be true, he would also be purchasing the bigger home at a lower price, more than likely offsetting any actual or perceived loss of value in his present home. It must be a down payment thing on the bigger one.

4. 60% said they would not buy a home in the next two years. The reason sited for the 60% who would not buy was that they believe home prices will continue to fall. The poll states again that this market may be good for Buyers but not sellers. No one seems to be pointing out the normal cycles of real estate markets. Prices go up and they go down. In each cycle, the highs get higher but that is also true of the lows. Sellers that are selling their homes are the Buyers that are also taking advantage of the new lower home values elsewhere. First time home buyers are certainly buying up short sales and foreclosures in record numbers. It states that only 11% are certain or very likely to buy soon, down from 15% two years ago.

5. 1 in 10 have adjustable rate mortgages. Accompanied by this killer conclusion statement. "Which has often meant steep, unaffordable boosts that have forced many to refinance or even lose their homes". It implies that many of the 1 in 10 with adjustable mortgages are losing their homes. What data that is available was not used to offset that statement. For instance, how many of the foreclosures were actually speculative purchases, where investors, flippers and unprepared owners that just walked away from their own mistakes.

6. 4 in 10 believe home values will drop over the next two years. After a few more choice words about how bad that is, the article about the poll also admits that 4 in 10 also believe home values will rise over the same 2 year period. As part of the way the media works, the bad news is positioned as the headlines and buried deep in the article may be other facts that may indicate something different. From our perspective in the industry, we must work with the market conditions that vary day to day. What also seems to be exacerbating the slowdown are the new more difficult loan qualifiers. I know that people need to be mobile in our society today and unless that changes, the demand for housing will always be in play despite the news of how things are today, I have strong feelings that the market is in the throws of turning around. The poll analyzers seem to draw a different conclusion.

The poll makes this further conclusion. "The public anxiety is in reaction to an economy that is veering toward recession and losing jobs even as the housing market sputters badly. Foreclosures have soared to record highs, mortgage rates have increased, sales of existing and new homes have fallen and home values have dropped". The way this statement sounds, the Chicken Little Scenario sounds alive and well. Seriously, sales are lower than the historic highs, but interest rates are at historic lows, and home values have adjusted downward from the stratosphere where they were pushed by a frenetic market that allowed anyone to buy a home, even if they couldn't afford it and artifically created value beyond measure. What was worse was that so many people belived there was never going to be an accounting or a reconciliation and used the paper equities like an ATM machine.

The economy may or may not be heading to a recession, but there are  political and media forces that probably need this to be the case to be successful in an election year. People's interests have been diverted from about the war and are now focused on the economy. Going back to the old successful adage, "It's the economy stupid" would be the easiest to resurrect and make news with.

The poll quantified the mix of respondents as 1002 adults nationwide and of those, 769 were homeowners.  To me it is just another poll that does not clearly qualify opinions held with facts but it certainly provides news writers more ability to spin to justify news stories that precede the actual news.