Here's Johnny! 

Inflation will keep popping up in more and more pronounced ways over the next 2 quarters, and the tandem team of the Fed and the Treasury will react with temporary, stop gap measures to stave off a further unwinding of the credit markets.  The forward holds of the Titanic are flooding, the bow is tilting downward, and the response thus far has been akin to flooding the "STEARN" holds to level out the ship...(misspelling and pun intended). 

 The ship is going down.  The Treasury will be forced to create more and more money, further devaluing the dollar.  New "structures" like the emergency short term window created to infuse more liquidity into the credit market will be implemented.  Eventually, the Treasury will have to "buy back" US securities with more mysteriously created paper money and on, and on.  Each action will have a temporary "feel good" affect but once the Oxycontin wears off, inflation will rear its head again and eventually, the only maneuver left will be the "Volcker" alternative.  Yes, radical short term rate increases will be necessary which will rain on Wall Streets parade and yes, our parade!

Ahhh, the 80's.  What a wonderful economic season.  For those that don't remember it, do some research.  The wonderful thing about our economy is that for every downturn, there is an upturn (at least we hope).  Our economy is cyclical, we are a manic depressive system that rides ecstatic waves of "irrational exuberance" and suffers miserable periods of hibernation.  It is what it is.  The Fed and the Treasury try to provide the Lithium that keeps the wild swings in check, but every so often, the mania gets out of control and we think that we don't need the medication any more and we live a lifestyle of excess and have to suffer the consequences.

The Government is desperately trying to come up with a new combination of meds to help prevent the ensuing "depression" but try as they might, there are just too many injuries incurred by our period of economic excess. 

All that being said, I am optimistic.  Our economy will turn around.  But I am realistic in that I expect the turn around in about 4 years.  So what do we do in the mean time?  I don't have a clue.

 
Post is included in group: Mortgages
Post is included in group: All About Mortgages/Mortgage Networking

5 Comments on Here's Johnny! Inflation and Titanic relationship...

APR
15
2008
264,888 Points 59 Featured Posts Outside Blog
Definite food for thought Rich.  I tend to be an optimist as well.  In the meantime, I plan to keep plugging away and take every opportunity that presents itself and transcend it into something special for the short and long-term.
1:07pm • #1
1 Featured Post
You're right Jason, swinging the bat, keep on keepin' on is the way to go.  There were a lot of folks that built quarter-million dollar lifestyles and I feel for those folks.  Many of us will do just fine.
4:40pm • #2
APR
21
2008
132,865 Points 10 Featured Posts Outside Blog

Well - so much for sitting on our thumbs and waiting for those qualified mortgage applications to start pouring in!!  Totally agree - nice to find someone else who has fun with economics!

5:20pm • #3
1 Featured Post
Eleanor...my students, back in the day, thought I was nuts for being excited about Economics.  I do think that the applications are going to start rolling in for refi's, as the ARM adjustments start to become more painful with the indexes coming back off of the artificial lows, more and more people are going to be running for cover!
6:33pm • #4
APR
25
2008

One would like to see the dollar at least trade with some traction. There is zero confidence in our currency.

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10:59pm • #5

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Rich Sweum

Everett, WA

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