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The Value Of A Watermelon, A Parable by Bill Roberts

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Services for Real Estate Pros with Brooks and Dunphy Real Estate DRE 00527512

The Value Of A Watermelon, A Parable
This is the story of Joe, an enterprising young fellow who bought 100

watermelons, iced them, and took them to the beach to sell.
He had planned on selling the watermelons for $5 each, but when he

got to the beach he saw a lot of people, maybe 50,000 and no

watermelon sellers.
So he priced his wares at $10 for each ice-cold watermelon.
He sold out in minutes.
He made a nice profit.
He was happy.
Johnny, who was at the beach that day witnessed this red-hot ice-cold

watermelon market. Johnny said to himself, "I can do that. I know

where I can buy a truckload of watermelons for $1 each."
So the next weekend Johnny showed up at the beach with 1000 ice-

cold watermelons. So did 999 other guys. It seems everybody had the

same idea. One million ice-cold Watermelons.
Johnny tried to sell his Watermelons for $10 like Joe did, but he was

only able to sell a couple watermelons. It seems that the other guys

weren't doing any better.
Johnny said "I got to lower my price or I'm going to be stuck with these

things."
So he reduced his price to $9, then $8, and eventually got down to $1.

He was able to sell out at that price, but he only made about $25

profit for the entire day.
Some of the other watermelon sellers weren't as lucky as Johnny. They

were slow to reduce their prices, so they got stuck with most of their

watermelons.
After all, 50,000 people at the beach might seem like a "BIG MARKET,"

BUT when you have 1,000,000 watermelons there is no way you can

sell them all.

What's the Moral?
Now there is a moral to this story, but I would like you to tell me what

it is.
And I am sure that it applies to  real estate. Do you know how?

 

Posted by

Please comment. All comments are greatly appreciated.

Bill Roberts

 

View William (Bill) Roberts's profile on LinkedIn

Comments (27)

Bill Roberts
Brooks and Dunphy Real Estate - Oceanside, CA
"Baby Boomer" Retirement Planner

Jon, Well I hope those smarter guys get here.

Bill Roberts

Aug 04, 2015 01:37 AM
Bill Roberts
Brooks and Dunphy Real Estate - Oceanside, CA
"Baby Boomer" Retirement Planner

George, It looks like you took the time to analyze this situation. Yes, the first seller had a seller's market, but the johnny-come-latelies didn't.

We havew had price run ups in real estate this last couple of years, but it was in a seller's market. What would happen if we had lots of inventory?

Bill Roberts

Aug 04, 2015 01:40 AM
Bill Roberts
Brooks and Dunphy Real Estate - Oceanside, CA
"Baby Boomer" Retirement Planner

Hi Lou, Let's hope things don't turn out poorly for us. Thank you.

Bill Roberts

Aug 04, 2015 01:41 AM
Debbie Reynolds, C21 Platinum Properties
Platinum Properties- (931)771-9070 - Clarksville, TN
The Dedicated Clarksville TN Realtor-(931)320-6730

Some people say it is being at the right place at the right time. Exploring other markets could have helped the watermelon sellers to sell their melons.  Watch your competition. They can change your market overnight.

Aug 04, 2015 02:03 AM
Bill Roberts
Brooks and Dunphy Real Estate - Oceanside, CA
"Baby Boomer" Retirement Planner

Debbie Reynolds Without a doubt. Everything changes by the minute, but most of us just don't notice.

Bill Roberts

Aug 04, 2015 02:15 AM
Lou Ludwig
Ludwig & Associates - Boca Raton, FL
Designations Earned CRB, CRS, CIPS, GRI, SRES, TRC

Bill

Someone would find a way to create a shortage of watermelon . .  . . and the prices would go through the roof.

Good luck and success.

Lou Ludwig

Aug 04, 2015 01:21 PM
Bill Roberts
Brooks and Dunphy Real Estate - Oceanside, CA
"Baby Boomer" Retirement Planner

Lou, Just like we 've had a shortage of houses these last couple of years?

Bill Roberts

Aug 04, 2015 11:36 PM
Kathy Streib
Cypress, TX
Home Stager/Redesign

Well- it's good to be the first in a market; know your market because it will change; and be ready to change with the market. 

Aug 05, 2015 03:20 AM
Lou Ludwig
Ludwig & Associates - Boca Raton, FL
Designations Earned CRB, CRS, CIPS, GRI, SRES, TRC

Bill

Kathy Streib is on point with her comments.

Good luck and success.

Lou Ludwig

Aug 05, 2015 01:05 PM
Bill Roberts
Brooks and Dunphy Real Estate - Oceanside, CA
"Baby Boomer" Retirement Planner

Kathy, We,  in California have seen home prices come all the way back to pre-crash price level. This was done with a very small pool of buyers (it is harder to qualify today than at any time in the last 10 years) and an Artificial Scarcity of houses (no new construction coming onto the market). These few sellers ahve enjoyed a seller's market, but a very thin one.

A slight change in the number of houses available or a change in the supply of buyers could affect the price greatly.

Bill Roberts

Aug 06, 2015 12:09 AM
Grant Schneider
Performance Development Strategies - Armonk, NY
Your Coach Helping You Create Successful Outcomes

Bill - the market is the great equalizer.  Find a need and fill it and when the market says too much adapt by buying quantity and adding something different or changing to something else.  You have the freedom!

In reality, unfortunately the seller would probably have regulations and fees.

Aug 10, 2015 11:27 AM
Bill Roberts
Brooks and Dunphy Real Estate - Oceanside, CA
"Baby Boomer" Retirement Planner

Ah Grant Schneider You want to spoil the parable with a dose of reality?

But the reality is that our real estate market has been spoiled also by the government (rules, regulations, restrictions) and a soft economy that doesn't allow people to do what they would want to do if things were "normal".

Bill Roberts

Aug 11, 2015 01:12 AM
Pamela Cendejas
Second Self Virtual Assistance - Kingman, AZ
Second Self Virtual Assistance (928) 692-3235

There are certainly a lot of smart people commenting on your post.  I just enjoyed the story.  Thank you, Bill.

Aug 24, 2015 03:00 AM
Bill Roberts
Brooks and Dunphy Real Estate - Oceanside, CA
"Baby Boomer" Retirement Planner

Pamela Cendejas Welcome to the discussion. All comments are welcome.

Bill Roberts

Aug 24, 2015 03:43 AM
Bob Crane
Woodland Management Service / Woodland Real Estate, KW Diversified - Stevens Point, WI
Forestland Experts! 715-204-9671

Great parable Bill, better make sure that your $100K home is the best of the $100k homes out there, or it may be rotting in the market like a month old watermelon.

Of course it is also a lesson learned every time the real estate market heats up and all the agent want to bees go out and get their license only to find that everyone else did too.

Aug 30, 2015 04:23 PM
Debbie Gartner
The Flooring Girl - White Plains, NY
The Flooring Girl & Blog Stylist -Dynamo Marketers

Great parable here.  Many lessons.  It's a classic case of supply and demand.  Day one, it was a seller's market.  Day 2 everyone jumped in and it became a buyer's market.  With added competition and no differentiation, prices declined.

Reminds me of how many people see a realtor's job as easy/lots of money, so tons more become agents and then it makes it harder for everyone.  Happens in virtually every market, but generally the first mover advantage pays off.  This happens w/ new technology all the time...and over time, the prices go down and more knock-offs.

I wonder what would have happened if it rained.

Aug 30, 2015 10:25 PM
Bill Roberts
Brooks and Dunphy Real Estate - Oceanside, CA
"Baby Boomer" Retirement Planner

Bob Crane I have lived through many real estate cycles. Surprisingly, it is always the same. But it shakes out pretty quickly. Those that are in it for a fast buck are usually disapppointed.

Bill Roberts

Aug 30, 2015 11:53 PM
Bill Roberts
Brooks and Dunphy Real Estate - Oceanside, CA
"Baby Boomer" Retirement Planner

Hi Debbie Gartner Nice to see you here. Thank you.

It seems that many just don't understand very basic economics.

And rain is good for the hot coffee sellers. Every dog has his day.

Bill Roberts

Aug 30, 2015 11:56 PM
Lottie Kendall
Compass - San Francisco, CA
Helping make your real estate dreams a reality

Hi Bill -- I loved this post. One take-away I had: lead the crowd, don't follow.

Aug 31, 2015 02:06 AM
Bill Roberts

Thank you Lottie. (It is nice to be first, but often very difficult.


Bill Roberts

Sep 11, 2015 11:22 PM
Inna Ivchenko
Barcode Properties - Encino, CA
Realtor® • GRI • HAFA • PSC Calabasas CA

It is a clever story:)

Trying duplicate someone's success be ready to adjust. Not everyone can be a successful idea generator, but following a blueprint is not such a bad idea:)

Sep 11, 2015 05:06 PM
Bill Roberts

Inna Ivchenko Thank you for following me. This is a story about supply and demand, something we are facing in Real Estate right now. Some will be surprised by what is to come.


Bill Roberts

Sep 11, 2015 11:28 PM