Economic Outlook for Maricopa County, Phoenix, Arizona
It’s true what they say, “You’ve come a long way baby!” And especially true if you’ve lived in Arizona during the last 10 years. If so, you would have seen the craziest real estate market ever recorded where buyers were pitching tents in new home subdivision parking lots to be first in line for the “lottery” of lot releases. We saw table funding with simultaneous closings. And there were over 200 condo conversions with white tents and red ropes, making guests feel as if they were going to be featured on radio or tv somehow.
Thankfully those days are gone, but what goes up must come down. And down it did. The housing market dropped like a rocket with the official bottom in 2011. Most states were affected to some degree or another. But in Arizona, we were in the headlines regularly as the number 2 state for foreclosures, three years running.
Proving we’ve turned around big time, Arizona is listed as the #1 state for job growth according to this recent article by Forbes, “The Best States for Future Job Growth.” Arizona is featured as an emerging housing market thanks to the retiring baby boomers.
And our housing prices are much more affordable than our neighboring state to the west, adding to migration from California to Arizona. California is the number one state to migrate to Arizona.
Affordability is a key factor for the supporting trades. The Phoenix metro housing market is experiencing a shortage of skilled labor, according to Greg Burger, R L Brown Reports, thus delaying completion of newly constructed homes. Demand is picking up for new construction.
According to recent Q3 reports from the Arizona Regional MLS, our median sales price is $219,900 with 7.5% increase year over year.
Price per square foot has risen steadily since the official “bottom” of the housing market in 2011 as illustrated below. These reports are provided by the Cromford Report, Mike Orr, ASU, W P Carey School of Business, Center for Real Estate Theory and Practice.
Another indicator is inventory. Inventory is slowly starting to inch upwards, reflecting a slight slowing in a sellers' market.
But, total residential housing inventory is still relatively low in Maricopa County. As of today, a total of 21,493 homes, condos, townhomes, mobile homes, and lofts are listed for sale. That's not very many for the 4.009 million residents in the 5th largest county in the US!
As a percent of total sales, cash purchases are just over 20%, indicating investors are still buying and selling investment properties. Many of these are flip properties that are purchased, remodeled and re-sold.
Reviewing inventory by price range reflects what is and is not selling as quickly.
If you are interested in more data by zip code or city within Maricopa County, please contact me.
If you or someone you know is interested in selling, contact me to learn my methods to garner top sales dollar for your home.
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