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Follow the Money

By
Real Estate Technology with Carmody and Associates LLC

Regardless of the results of the Pennsylvania primary tomorrow, the Clinton campaign is simply out of gas.  Current figures from Fox news show Senator Obama with $41 million on hand with negligible debt while Mrs Clinton has $9 million on hand with $10 million in outstanding debts. 

Mrs Clinton will stay in the race but is fighting a very difficult battle with no funding and an insurmountable deficit in earned delegates. 

I have been very critical of the management of the Clinton campaign in the past with comments about poor strategy and poor overall planning coming from the fact that Hillary thought it would be over by February 5th and had no structure in place for the rest of the elections to follow.  I am a bit surprised that the Clinton machine can't keep up with the new kid in fundraising.  She has not broadened her base for fundraising - despite early warnings last year  that Senator Obama would be no pushover in financing his campaign.  Senator Obama has broadened the Democrat base, made masterful use of the internet and raised the overwhelming majority of his money from small contributors and not big corporate interests that you hear so much about.  

Now add to those criticisms the fact that their fiscal responsibility seems to be lacking as well (coming to the wire with debts exceeding cash on hand) and we have yet another indication that this candidate is not ready to go on day one. The bottom line is that she cannot handle the bottom line.  I don’t want her with her finger on the button, answering the phone at 3a or handling my country’s checkbook.

Senator McCain and the RNC had better be watching.  True, there is only a 60 day campaign after the convention – but McCain is not raising money at the required levels yet.  Unless we want another Bob Dole race which fades away because of lack of funding – the conservative base needs to step up to the plate (the multi-thousand dollar a plate fund raising dinner plates) now.  Federal funding of the MCCain campaign is an embarrassing option that says our guy couldn't get the job done.  And we will lose to the Senator from Illinois.

 

Comments(23)

» Bill Burress Nationwide Mortgage Originator
» Bill Burress Nationwide Mortgage Originator - Fort Myers, FL

Ted:

You mentioned the 60 day general election. Karl Rove mentioned weeks ago that the longer the primaries are drug out, the more advantage goes to the Dems.  McCain will have less time to get his message out.

Apr 21, 2008 10:00 AM
» Bill Burress Nationwide Mortgage Originator
» Bill Burress Nationwide Mortgage Originator - Fort Myers, FL

Ted:

Congratulations!

This post has earned featured post status on the Silent Majority group in ActiveRain.

 

 

 

 

 

Apr 21, 2008 12:53 PM
Ted Baker
Carmody and Associates LLC - Winter Haven, FL
MidFloridaMediation.com

Bill (Gillhespy) - Thanks for your input, Bill.  I disagree.  What has Mrs Clinton accomplished other than her campaign ? That is not just a comment on her - I have written that I feel the background of a Senator is of questionable use for an executive position - and we have three to choose from.  So, I am impressed with Senator Obama's campaign from the standpoint of fundraising, innovation, campaign decisions and strategy, organization, management, compliance, getting candidates for delegate on all ballots and goal setting.  I feel that Mrs Clinton, in comparison, has done a poor job of management for the smartest woman alive - as the media used to call her.  I think the comparison is very relevant. 

(but I will vote for McCain anyway.)

Bill (Burress) - I hate to disagree with Karl Rove - that is a low percentage bet - but McCain has the opportunity to place paid media prior to the conventions if he has the money.  What I was actually referring to in my post is that the fund raising limits and accounting are separate for pre-convention and post-convention.  The short run to the election from the convention will help McCain stretch his money if he accepts federal funds and  therefore accepts limits too.  (I think the number is $31 million for fed funds). In the normal election cycle there would be an extra month after the July or August convention.  This year the Republican convention is the first week in September. 

At the moment the Democrats are getting negative publicity with the negative campaigns of the candidates.  As long as that continues, the more polarized the party may become - and the more bitterness may remain after the final decision - which may come at the conventions if Hillary continues to fight over Florida and Michigan.  So I apparently disagree with the master (Karl Rove) twice - I think the more they tear at each other and the more the supproters of each candidate become vested in their guy (or gal) - the more benefit to the Republicans.  Right now McCain should be trying to reach the conservative base to get fundraising.  After the convention - he will need to go after independents, moderate democrats and disaffected democrats who feel they got robbed at the convention when their candidate lost. 

The other wild card is the presence of third party candidates.  Bob Barr (former rep from GA) as the possible standard bearer for the libertarians - which has not occurred yet, could be a big problem for McCain and could elect the democrat (I assume Obama).  (Ralph Nader could help McCain - but not as much)  Joe Lieberman speaking at the Republican convention may be a real plus in pulling those in the center toward us. 

THanks to all for stopping by

 

Apr 21, 2008 02:13 PM
Simon Conway
Orlando Area Real Estate Services - Orlando, FL

Ted - the money question is very important, but I have not ruled out Hillary finding a way to steal the nomination from Obama.

I agree McCain needs to start raising cash and fast. He is in a difficult position because politically keeping his mouth shut while the two Dems hammer away at each other is great strategy - but it does leave him short of funds.

Apr 21, 2008 02:28 PM
Rich Jacobson
Fathom Realty West Sound - Poulsbo, WA
Your Kitsap County WA Real Estate Broker
I wish the financial aspects of campaigning weren't such a big determining factor, but there doesn't seem to be much that can be done to control the obscene amount of money that is spent simply to get someone elected. 
Apr 21, 2008 06:31 PM
Ted Baker
Carmody and Associates LLC - Winter Haven, FL
MidFloridaMediation.com
Rich - glad to see you.  Feel free to stop by any time.  The costs of the campaigns certainly would dismay the founding fathers.  But rough and tumble politics for the Presidency have always been a feature of the American Scene.  In the arena of politics, the money guarantees the ability to express one's opinions.  But current spending levels by all parties is staggering.  I favor the fewest possible controls to assure freedom for political speech - but would favor much more stringent and prompt disclosure of all contributions.
Apr 21, 2008 07:08 PM
Ted Baker
Carmody and Associates LLC - Winter Haven, FL
MidFloridaMediation.com
Simon - neither has she.
Apr 21, 2008 07:35 PM
Kevin Robinson
Twin Falls, ID
Fractional Developer
Lets all send Mr. McCain some money. He is going to need it. I can't take 4 years of Osama or Hillsy.
Apr 22, 2008 01:44 AM
Gary L. Waters Broker Associate, Bucci Realty
Bucci Realty, Inc. - Melbourne, FL
Eighteen Years Experience in Brevard County
Money is what the election process is all about...and the Republicans need to get out their checkbooks!
Apr 22, 2008 03:39 AM
Rich Jacobson
Fathom Realty West Sound - Poulsbo, WA
Your Kitsap County WA Real Estate Broker
Ted - What I'm saying is that a candidate shouldn't be elected because they have the biggest budget. That's the unfortunate part of the process. I felt that Mike Huckabee might have been a more viable candidate, but unfortunately, he didn't have the deep pockets that others did. 
Apr 22, 2008 04:34 AM
Patrick Johnson
Windermere - Bellingham, WA
Ted, I would agree with everything here. There is one point to make also, you need money AND the media to win. Look at Mitt Romney, he had lots of money (much more than McCain and Huckabee) but the way he was presented by the media ( bad, rich white guy and of course a Mormon ) made it impossible for him to win. I think the Billary and NObama camps had the same amount of money not that long ago, but the media has been calling/telling us for her to drop out for two months. That affects donations big time. 
Apr 22, 2008 04:43 AM
Broker Nick
South Florida Real Estate & Development, Inc. - Coconut Creek, FL
Broker Nick Relocation Broker Service
Can I follow the points, TED. I seem to be missing some of mine.
Apr 22, 2008 04:58 AM
Hugh Krone
Weichert Referral Associates - Hamburg, NJ
Realtor, Sussex County NJ
Ted I,m afraid of the third party situation , but maybe we can get Al gore to run too.
Apr 22, 2008 07:57 AM
Ted Baker
Carmody and Associates LLC - Winter Haven, FL
MidFloridaMediation.com

[UPDATE]

In the day following the expected Clinton win in Pennsylvania, her campaign reports ten million dollars raised on the internet.

 

< sigh >

 

Apr 23, 2008 12:15 PM
Broker Nick
South Florida Real Estate & Development, Inc. - Coconut Creek, FL
Broker Nick Relocation Broker Service

Ted: The war machine of McCain needs to be what it is a campaign machine producing money to sustain the momentum. He needs to pick his Vice President candidate so that Conservatives will unite and campaign and raise the money for him as well. I hope he doesn't have the Bob Dole mentality or the Dole campaign staff...yikes

 

Apr 23, 2008 12:59 PM
Mary Thomas BH,MB,HB, PV, Estates LA+
Remax Estates Properties - Los Angeles, CA
Mary C. Thomas Your Agent around the Globe
Ted, They should have put all there money together and built homes for the poor,,They would have received my vote then maybe...we wouldn't have known that much about either of them ..Would have solved the homeless problem and our nausea at their campaigns. Great info.. What a waste of money....
Apr 23, 2008 06:46 PM
Ted Baker
Carmody and Associates LLC - Winter Haven, FL
MidFloridaMediation.com

run a political campaign or rebuild New Orleans... now let me see.

Thanks Mary, you voice an opinion shared by many

Apr 23, 2008 07:05 PM
Mike Frazier
Carousel Realty of Dyer County - Dyersburg, TN
Northwest Tennessee Realtor

Ted,

If McCain would pick a conservative running mate I think the money from the right would start flowing!

Apr 27, 2008 12:49 AM
Ted Baker
Carmody and Associates LLC - Winter Haven, FL
MidFloridaMediation.com

You are in good company, Mike.  Many feel that Senator McCain should pick and announce his running mate sooner rather than later.

I am concerned that the dynamics of the race after the conventions will be different depending on the candidate  who finally makes the cut on the Democrat side.  So the selection of a running mate may be different depending on whether we are running against the liberal socialist from Illinois or the liberal socialist from New York.  I have been one to express the thought that he keep his powder dry until we know who he is running against.  But then I complain about lack of fund-raising.  I see the inconsistency in my position.  I also note that I do not recall such an abbreviated  general election season with the conventions scheduled so late.  So you may be right on this one and I may come around in my view soon.  But not yet.  I will let the Dems feed on themselves for a while more.

Apr 27, 2008 01:34 AM
Broker Nick
South Florida Real Estate & Development, Inc. - Coconut Creek, FL
Broker Nick Relocation Broker Service
McCain should pick a running mate now, so he can raise the money to defeat communism in America.
Apr 27, 2008 04:01 AM