Simi Valley and Moorpark Real Estate - Home Sales. Should  buyers wait or buy now?  The following reasons indicate that a wait and see approach might not work out in the long run.  Timing the market cycles for absolute high and low points is about the same as playing roulette.  

1. Interest Rates are Low.  In looking at the boom between 2003 and 2005 it is clear that an  interest rate base has been established above 5%.  


2.  A price drop over the next 12 months may not save you any money over the long haul.  If interest rates increase while prices drop.  The monthly payment will be the same and could even be higher. Interest rates for 2006 and 2007 averaged over 6.34%.  Rates as of today were at 5.88%    The Bank always wins at the interest game on 30 year mortgages.



3.  Buyer confidence is low however in 2006 Buyers were willing to commit to higher payments and higher home prices.  Ventura County is growth controlled by local and county government.  New housing will always lag demand.

4. The world population grows at 90 million people per year.  California offers unique weather and employment opportunities that keep areas like Simi Valley and Moorpark very desirable.

5.  Price declines in Simi Valley have seen as much as 30% in some tracts and 18% among the more stable tracts. Good buys are out there.  Not every property is good right now, but with careful research there are gems to be had.

When will we hit bottom?  How long will we stay at a bottom?  These are unknowns. The affordabilty issue will control these two questions.  One thing that I am very confident in, is that the days of 24% and 29% price increases will not be around for many years to come.  The news will be 6 months behind reporting the correction as usual and when the market begins to recover the increases in price will be single digit and probably closer to the 6%-7% historical averages.  The home you purchase to shelter your family is not a stock, stock option or commodity, it's a long term investment and reacts better when treated like a crock pot rather than a microwave.