There is a new pressure these days on appraisers - something new to conform to. Well, pressure to hit a number is still there from some clients, but appraisers are now armed with the HVCC threat, I mean proposal, offered by NY Attorney General Cuomo and Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac. I am hearing more appraisers referring to the new proposal as something possibly harmful in the long run - but many are running to it for some "teeth" to push back on pressure.
But the new pressure these days seems to be over stable vs. declining markets!
I know in my area here in Central Florida (in and around the Orlando area) - I have regional data which typically shows the whole state as declining values! Yet many sub-market areas are doing just fine with either stable conditions, or even slight increases, depending on local market influences.
I am amazed at how the media uses a broad brush to paint the whole state as a train wreck! Certainly some of my fellow appraisers post about crashing markets in southern Florida, Cape Coral, Fort Myers, etc.
Yet one has to be careful not to buy into everything the media is feeding us these days! For example, in my local market here in Clermont, FL there is a 55+ golf community known as Kings Ridge. This neighborhood took quite a hit in 2007, yet now in 2008, the community would be considered stable and no longer declining. A search of MLS statistics confirms this with solid math:
In 2006, a search of closed sales with a maximum square footage of 1,600 sf found:
In 2007, there was a decline among this category of home:
Yet in the first quarter of 2008, there have been more sales in 4 months than there were in all of 2007! And the stats don't lie:
While the average home sale in this category has fallen (due to the sales including some short sales) - the media figures show a stable market area. The number of sales now in 2008 is what is encouraging! While there is still an over supply (37 homes in this category) - the outlook is picking up with more sales in this quarter than all of 2007!
So don't believe everything you hear in the media these days! News makers like to report headlines that grab you! And who wants to hear that the Sunshine state is looking a little bright in some markets? <sarcasm intended>
And underwriters these days are making us PROVE that the area is stable (and rightly so!) - the days of just being able to report some findings without some measure of graphical or statistical evidence are over - and as professional appraisers, it is our job to produce a credible report which can be understood by all of the intended users (homeowners included).
So take heart Central Florida! New construction has begun again, roads are being widened, commercial strip malls are under way! While the rest of the year may be some cautious steps forward....it is encouraging to at least see the steps are moving forward again!
AUTHOR:
Richard D Ferris - AmcAppraisalsinc.com - Servicing all of Lake, Orange, Osceola, Polk, and Seminole Counties. Also servicing Deltona, Deland, and Orange City in Volusia County.
Phone 877-789-5249or email me: richard@amcappraisalsinc.com
Comments(0)