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Interesting facts and figures for San Ramon

Was away for 2 weeks as my Mom passed away. I felt like I had been away for a long long time. But now am back and trying to get myself entrenched in work again.

The market in San Ramon seems to have reached near the bottom as far as pricing is concerned. I am no statistical expert but I follow the activity closely. YTD statistics show there were 385 homes sold from January to April and this year it is 245. This is not counting new home sales, as those figures are not accessible unless I go pour over county recorders documents.

Sales activity surely seems to be slower but then again,a lot of people moving into San Ramon are coming into new homes and the resale market is slower than last year.I was running some statistics on the townhouses in the Ambridge community of Windemere and the odd finding was that year to date, exactly 8 homes sold in 2007 and 2008 but the average reduction in price was 8% in price.This mainly caused by 2 reasons- the last 7 months saw a rise in the bank owned properties in this neighborhood and Centex coming in with the Fioli project and ruining the comps. Now consumers want resales to cost less than the Fioli townhouses !!

Buyers do not want to understand how the builder is working the low prices of the townhouses.They will nickel and dime the buyers on every little thing that will cost them maybe 3 times the price through the builder than it would otherwise.Besides the new townhouses are a year from completion, so you wait for a long time to get into a home.In my opinion, it is better to negotiate the price with a resale- where you get everything ready to go and upgrades included.Buyers, understand that although sellers cannot compete with builders, yet they are realistic about prices in this market.

In my community of Windemere, I find an exciting turn of events.Here is my take on what is going to happen soon. The largest dealmaker Centex is selling out inventory fast till the end of April, which is their fiscal year end.Come May, they are taking away broker referral fee because they think they can sell remaining homes at a higher price, on their own.Oliveta has about 40 homes left, La Sera has about 10 homes left. I wish all the best to the buyers who walk in there on their own to find good deals !! So, once they are sold out the other builders come into a stronger position and there will be lesser incentives from other builders as inventory will reduce.Resale home inventory is already slowing and in my prediction soon after the summer months are over the market is going to level off with lesser inventory to choose from.People still want to move to Windemere and there will be a slow creep up in prices.

There is not a whole lot left in the 3000sq ft plus homes. Once Centex is out of the way, it leaves Lennar to demand their price on Escalante and Stafford Place or else you go over the million dollar plus mark to buy at Hawthorne or Santorini.Watch out for deals coming soon from Brookfield homes, is my hunch. They are trying to blow out Saville and they will give good incentives this summer. Once they are done with that community,they will try to pick up sales in Campton- which BTW is probably the slowest moving community. Ridiculous prices on their homes deters a lot of people.So, in my next blog I will keep you updated on what strategies are being employed and what way the curve is moving.

Posted by Rama Mehra on 04/24/2008 10:27 PM

Comments (22)

windemere housing market, san ramon housing statistics

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22 Comments on Interesting facts and figures for San Ramon

APR

2008

I like your blog. I have been looking at buying a home in Santorini. But the builder is still not coming to an agreement. For Residence 3 (the only model I like), I offered them $1.1 mln (which includes $40K in upgrades) but they are stuck at $1.2 mln. I think that's too much to ask for in this market. Do you know if they have sold Plan 3 at $1.1 mln (including $40K in upgrades)? Thanks.

Thanks for your comment.They have sold the plan 3 for not less than 1.2Million, so it will be a tough call. But here is the deal- you need to find a inventory home with them rather than a home that is months away from completion.It is going to be very difficult to get the home at that price. Here is what I found fo ryou from public tax records: 7518 Balmoral Way Brookfield Santorini to H. & M. Sherdil for $1,434,000. Looks like this was probably a plan 4 or someone did not negotiate at all.I am in the process of negotiating a deal for one of my clients at Santorini and if you would like, you can call me and we can talk.I personally believe that relationships come into play when negotiating.

APR

2008

Hi Rama. These are indeed wise and interesting facts. Thanks. I enjoyed reading your post.

Don

Thanks Don, I am grateful for your comment !

what price ranges the Campton homes are selling at?

Campton current inventory is:
Plan 1- $906,800
Plan 2- $947,800
Plan 3- $956,800
Incentive package is 120K and if you like them, prices are "slightly" more negotiable- as per the words of the sales rep.I am sure if the buyer is qualified, there will be room to bring the prices down further.

APR

2008

Thanks Rama.

I am hearing there are some foreclosures in windemere area. And speculating, more and more forclosures may come in soon as the interest rates are going up. Does this makes the San ramon prices further down.

THere was a quick spate of foreclosures in Windemere which started around the end of last year.Year to date there have been 18 foreclosures in Windemere, which is not a lot. The rate has slowed down as rapidly as it went up.Here is a list of all the foreclosures: Click Here to View Listings

MAY

2008

I see your last two blogs are in total contrast. They are just a week apart, and your other comment shows you are aware of the rates for brook field and cnetex communities. What have changed in this one week time frame.

I am not trying to criticizing you, but would like to understand the scenario. Beacuse I am planning to buy the home there, and last weeks blog was encouraging.

Rama, I'm sorry about your mom's passing. Peace.

WoW! You really write a great blog!

Kathy, Windemere is a great community and I do not think my blogs are contradictory- I may sound scattered because this is my maiden venture at writing down my thoughts and I have still not mastered the art !! And I am always open to comments !!

The activitiy is still brisk but I wanted to specifically talk about the two communities by Brookfield- Saville and Campton.THese are the 2 communities that have still not reached the bottom on their pricing and are being unrealistic. My goal is to present facts to buyers so they can make an informed decision.These 2communities are overpriced and have not reached their bottom yet.I always have this argument with the sales rep at Saville and although she agrees with me offline, she says her hands are tied.

When I write on my blog, my goal is to be informative for prosective buyers and not to be critical of any builder.Also, I agree I may not be putting in my thoughts is the most coherent manner but I feel very strongly about the topics I discuss. It just blows my mind when people go in and buy at Saville without understanding where their prices are at, and that they will make the wrong decision by not bargaining them down to where the market is dictating.I hope I was able to answer your critique, and if not, please let me know.

June, thanks for your kind wishes.I also appreciate your comments... I am trying to honest and guide buyers on market pricing to get a good deal.

MAY

2008

Thanks for clarification.It is really helpful to the readers, who are not aware of the area and help not fall into marketing hype.

I read your other blog, and it iwas really good.

And why people completely second the Gale Ranch community compared to Windemere?

Approximately what range would be a reasonable price for Saville or Campton? Are there any other communities with in those price ranges.

Kathy,I am glad I was able to clarify the confusion.On Saville I really think they should be in the range of $670,000 to $720,000.That would be the correct market price in my opinion.Campton, should start at $700,000 and not going over $790,000.They are slightly bigger homes than Saville but if you honestly ask me, the floor plans at Saville are better than Campton!!

As for Gale Ranch being second to Windemere, they really should be fourth to Windemere. Shapell built some nice homes in the Bridges community but in the new area, they feel like chicken pens; so called detached homes are 3 to one single corridor style( it is like 3 houses in a courtyard); the standard features in Windemere, for example- granite, tiles,fireplaces etc are upgrades in Gale Ranch. They have carpet in the bathrooms and toilets;6x6 white tile in the kitchen; white appliances, etc.Just the construction designs and quality of material,you can know the builder is just trying to make a quick buck by smushing homes together that look like cookie cutter homes and have no architectural detail to them.Besides just as an FYI, Shapell bought the entire valley here for $3million in 1973 !! Imagine how much money they make and I have heard some nasty stories about Shapell.

MAY

2008

Thanks Rama!. That is really useful information. I appreciate your prompt answer.

Still they are able to sell the houses. Hopefullt they realize at some point and sell the homes at reasonable price.
And , I atleast hope they are not taking off some off the standard features (in the past) and reducing the pricess to come closer to the market price

Kathy, builders are in the business to make money- like any other business people. It really boils down to the consumers to dictate a certain price and if the price is not suitable to the builder- they should stop construction !! The builders cannot take away standard features but what they are doing is that they are charging for the smallest of items like electricals, hardware etc. The way they make up their money is by charging you 3 times the price of market value of products.

MAY

2008

Hi Rama,

I just came across your website as I was looking for some new homes in the Windemere area. I see you have some interesting remarks. I was wondering if you would be able to comment on the pricing of paloma homes in Windemere by Lennar. Paloma res 1 is priced at $868,250 for a 4bedroom/3bath/3car garage which is 2566sqft/5661sqft. Do you think this is even reasonable and how much can one negotiate to bring it to a fair price?How much should this be priced at in your opinion?

I would really appreciate your feedback with a price range you think is reasonable. Here is their floor plan. http://lennar.com/CA/SanFrancisco/PalomaAtWindemere/Residence1.html

Thanks,
-Soujanya

I will be soon looking for homes actively. Right now I am just shopping around for good deals/agents/homes/location etc.

JUN

2008

Hi Rama

Thanks much for your informative blog.

I just viewed Model 5B / The Vesper / Rose Garden / Gale Ranch / Shapell Homes. Property is priced just over $1MN. Found it a little odd design having the house split into two parts and the second being above the 3-car garage. Though I found ample space between these two buildings (good enough for a pool), how does the market receive such a property. I have never come across this design - and am little worried about its resale issues.

Any help/clarification in this is highly appreciated.

Thanks

Viv

JUN

2008

Hi Viv, this is probably the Rose Garden with the casita, am I right? Well, what can I say.... not everyone wants a casita. It really depends on your family's needs and if the casita makes sense for you or not.I do not know about the impact on resale because I have not sold any home with this feature but I did sell large homes in Santorini but my clients did not choose the home with the casita.Not that I am making any racial comments, but the demographics of the buyers in this area are from Asia and culturally, Asian families do not like the casita feature.Some families may prefer it as an in law suite but Asian cultures like to have their elders live with them in the house and not out !

JUL

What is your opinion of Floretine Shapell homes.

JUL

overpriced

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