Originally posted at The Big Bear Skinny.
The time it will take to sell a house in Big Bear dropped by 10 months in April 2008. With the pick up in home sales that we saw in March, the absorption rate for the Big Bear real estate market dropped from 32.72 months to sell to 22.80 months to sell.
This is encouraging news for home sellers though the market is still very heavily favored toward buyers. The market will need to get closer to a 1-3 month absorption rate in order to get back to a sellers market.
Now that we are heading into the spring and summer season for Big Bear, sales will pick up even more. But, so will the properties coming on the market. The total inventory of houses on the market is currently at 1094. This number could easily be 1500 by July 4th of this year. So, even if the number of sales pick up to 100 home sales per month, the number of homes on the market will still far outweigh the demand.
The number of sales per month needs to be closer to 200 for the market to see any kind of significant pick up.
Absorption Rate By Price Range
| Price Range | Residential Properties On The Market | Residential Sales Last Month | Absorption Rate - # Of Months It Will Take To Sell |
|---|---|---|---|
| $300,000 & below | 499 | 24 | 20.80 |
| $300,001 to $500,000 | 346 | 15 | 23.06 |
| $500,001 to $800,000 | 144 | 6 | 24 |
| $800,0001 to $1,000,000 | 34 | 0 | N/A |
| $1,000,001 & above | 71 | 3 | 23.67 |
| Totals | 1094 | 48 | 22.80 |
Absorption Rates By Area
| Area | Residential Properties On The Market | Residential Sales Last Month | Absorption Rate - # Of Months It Will Take To Sell |
|---|---|---|---|
| Big Bear Lake West | 30 | 1 | 30 |
| Big Bear Lake Central | 104 | 2 | 52 |
| Big Bear Lake East | 79 | 3 | 26.33 |
| Fox Farm | 86 | 7 | 12.29 |
| Moonridge | 210 | 10 | 21 |
| Whispering Forest | 22 | 1 | 22 |
| Fawnskin | 27 | 1 | 27 |
| Big Bear City | 245 | 8 | 30.63 |
| Sugarloaf | 144 | 8 | 18 |
| Erwin Lake | 95 | 6 | 15.83 |
| Baldwin Lake | 45 | 1 | 45 |
| Lake Williams | 7 | 0 | N/A |
| Totals | 1094 | 48 | 22.80 |
Properties priced under $500,000 are selling the quickest while those between $500,000 and $1,000,000 are not faring as well.
Properties in Fox Farm, Sugarloaf, & Erwin Lake sold better as compared to Big Bear Lake Central, Lake Williams, Baldwin Lake, & Big Bear City.
These numbers change from month to month. Some of the price ranges and areas that are not doing well now have performed better in previous months.
If you are interested in how the real estate market in Big Bear is performing, be sure to sign up for my RSS feed or email newsletter.
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