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Buyer/Sellers - Do You Trust the Automated Valuation Models(AVMs)?

By
Real Estate Agent with Brown Realty, 210-789-4216, TREC #0492321

Buyers and sellers are flocking to the Internet to search for homes, and get estimates of value on these properties all over the country. But, can these automated valuation models(AVMs) be trusted? I highly doubt it. I read a recent blog by a fellow associate, Ms. Debbie Reynolds of Clarksville, TN about a buyer who trusted and believed in one of those Zestimates instead of an appraiser. Debbie plainly pointed out to this buyer what all real estate professionals already know - a Zestimate is NOT the Bible on determining how much your home is worth.

These AVMs are widely used by sites like Zillow for price estimates. But, can you trust their accuracy and reliability? So, what exactly is an AVM? Automated valuation models plug in basic property characteristics like square footage, number of bedrooms and baths, publicly available data, local market information, and price trends into a computer algorithm to arrive at an estimated value for a property. 

What's My Home WorthDifferent companies use their own AVMs, and each one relies on its own formula and data resources. Those that DO NOT use data from the local MLS that only REALTORS® have access to, may have less accurate information which further contributes to the unreliability and inconsistency of those estimates. Most of these models do not take into consideration the property condition. For example, two houses may have been built in the same year with very similar features, but one of them had been recently updated with new flooring, new fixtures, new appliances, remodeled kitchen and baths, while the other one still has that same old “popcorn” ceiling, wall paper, outdated appliances, and original carpet or tile flooring. Which one would you think would be worth more? But, these AVMs do not take that into consideration.

Yes, these automated valuation models have a few drawbacks which affects their accuracy, but as a Texas REALTOR®, I have access to a better tool, which we call the REALTORS® Valuation Model(RVM). Why is the RVM better? It uses better data, as the vast majority of MLSs in Texas authorize their data for RVMs. Consequently, a RVM is consistently more accurate than other AVMs. Texas REALTORS access the RVMs through the REALTORS® Property Resource, which is a comprehensive database of properties only available to members of the National Association of REALTORS®.

To get help with pricing, negotiations, and all other parts of your real estate transaction, a Texas REALTOR® is your best resource. Call Jerry Today at 210-789-4216. Visit my website to find Homes For Sale in and around the San Antonio area. Sellers can also find out How Much Their Homes Are Worth?

Comments (29)

Jeff Dowler, CRS
eXp Realty of California, Inc. - Carlsbad, CA
The Southern California Relocation Dude

Jerry

Well done article about AVMs which consumers all seem to know and love, much to our chagrin. We all know how inaccurate they can be, and they vary quite a bit on any given house. I think it's smart to know what they say about houses we might be listing, as well as for houses our buyers like to we are prepared to have an educational discussion about the true value of the subject properties. I saw Debbie's post - that was a first!

Jeff

Jul 29, 2016 09:46 AM
Jerry Newman
Brown Realty, 210-789-4216, - San Antonio, TX
Texas REALTOR, San Antonio Military Relocation

Hi Jeremy Cupp MRP, SRS Like you, I love using the RPR, since the majority of the data comes from all the local MLSs. It's always a matter of educating the public on what they can trust.

Have a Great Week, My Friend! Love your new niche for the Military.

Jul 29, 2016 12:09 PM
Jerry Newman
Brown Realty, 210-789-4216, - San Antonio, TX
Texas REALTOR, San Antonio Military Relocation

Thanks, Laura Filip RE/MAX UTOPIA | 903-271-4978 

It has been quite hot and humid out there showing homes lately. But, I was grateful for the little rain that we got the other day.

Enjoy your Weekend!

Jul 29, 2016 12:11 PM
Jerry Newman
Brown Realty, 210-789-4216, - San Antonio, TX
Texas REALTOR, San Antonio Military Relocation

Hi Jon Kolsky Your observation is so true. Unfortunately far to many online customers are looking at these AVMs and taking them at their word, even though they all have some kind of disclaimers. At least, we know better, and we educate all our clients accordingly.

Have a Blessed Weekend!

Jul 29, 2016 12:14 PM
Jerry Newman
Brown Realty, 210-789-4216, - San Antonio, TX
Texas REALTOR, San Antonio Military Relocation

Yes, Dick. I would recommend a professional every time. We can't leave these valuations up to machines, but so many are hooked on them.

You and Mary Have a Blessed Weekend!

 

Jul 29, 2016 12:18 PM
Jerry Newman
Brown Realty, 210-789-4216, - San Antonio, TX
Texas REALTOR, San Antonio Military Relocation

Yes, Carla Muss-Jacobs, Principal Broker (503) 810-7192 

They certainly are a Joke. A physical inspection of the property is needed to have an better valuation for pricing their homes. Contacting a local real estate professional is highly recommended.

Enjoy you Weekend!

Jul 29, 2016 12:23 PM
Jerry Newman
Brown Realty, 210-789-4216, - San Antonio, TX
Texas REALTOR, San Antonio Military Relocation

Right on Target, Jeff Dowler That''s why I always insist on a physical inspection of properties before I share my opinion on a CMA. I am not sure we can slow down the public from using them, so we have to take the time to educate all our clients. I just hate when one of them says, "Well Z said is was worth....".

Have a Wonderful Weekend in Carlsbad!

Jul 29, 2016 12:26 PM
Nina Hollander, Broker
Coldwell Banker Realty - Charlotte, NC
Your Greater Charlotte Realtor

Hi Jerry.... to answer your question, I don't trust the AVM's and when I list a property I uncheck the box allowing them on my listings when our MLS syndicates.

Jul 29, 2016 11:03 PM
Laura Filip

Nina Hollander we do the same thing. But I never really thought about what it meant . Thank you Jerry Newman  for brining this up. 

Jul 31, 2016 03:31 AM
Jerry Newman
Brown Realty, 210-789-4216, - San Antonio, TX
Texas REALTOR, San Antonio Military Relocation

That's a good idea, Nina. One shouldn't trust the results from those AVMs.
Have a Blessed Weekend!

Jul 29, 2016 11:41 PM
Lorrie Semler, REALTOR® in the Dallas area. Call/text 972-416-3417
HomeSmart Stars - Addison, TX
Real Service. Real Results. Real Estate

In Texas, a non-disclosure state, AVMs are next to useless. Only information from the MLS should be relied on.

Jul 30, 2016 12:07 AM
Jerry Newman

Hi Lorie, Thanks for reminding buyers about Texas being a non-disclosure state. Cash deals are often not record, unless it happens with someone who uses our MLS.


Wishing You the Best In Dallas!

Aug 02, 2016 03:28 AM
Kathleen Daniels, Probate & Trust Specialist
KD Realty - 408.972.1822 - San Jose, CA
Probate Real Estate Services

Jerry, I do not.  I do not use them on my website either. They are good for generating leads but not for providing a real home value.  I'm been spending some time in RPR ... have taken a few webinars this month. It's an amazing resource ... likely the one benefit from NAR that I feel is a true member benefit. Congratulations on this Feature post. 

Jul 30, 2016 01:24 AM
Jerry Newman

Thanks, Kathleen Daniels I am sure you'll find some value with RPR. I used it often these days.


Have a Blessed Week in San Jose!

Aug 02, 2016 03:30 AM
Evelyn Johnston
Friends & Neighbors Real Estate - Elkhart, IN
The People You Know, Like and Trust!

I am so glad to see this featured Jerry Newman , you wrote an excellent post! Well done!

Jul 30, 2016 01:08 PM
Jerry Newman

Thanks, Evelyn Johnston It was a timely subject, since I have had recent clients bring them up.

Aug 02, 2016 03:31 AM
Mayra Espinosa Realtor San Mateo Pacifica Homes
Mayra Espinosa Broker- Realtor | Call 650-996-8961 - Pacifica, CA
San Mateo County Real Estate | Buy | Sell | Invest

Maybe we need to educate our consumers on the topic,  So they know what kind or home valuation they are getting (a home valuation done by a local real estate agent professional or a machine generated). What is better? Buyers and seller should know the difference.

Home Valuation

If you are a buyer or a seller, and you are ready to make a move either buying or selling, ask one of your local savvy BPO, or CMA real estate professional. They know what is going on in their market and knows how to prepare a good CMA.

 

Jul 30, 2016 01:39 PM
Jerry Newman

Yes, Carmen. Educating our clients is an ongoing task. They can depend on us to be the source of the source. Love your graphic.


Have a Blessed Week in San Francisco!

Aug 02, 2016 03:33 AM
Richie Alan Naggar
people first...then business Ran Right Realty - Riverside, CA
agent & author

 Of opinions, there is no end. Of  pros? That's the way to go. Seek the pro who knows what to do with that information & then relax as the transaction unfolds

Jul 31, 2016 12:09 AM
Jerry Newman

Great recommendation! Richie Alan Naggar 


Enjoy Your Week!

Aug 02, 2016 03:35 AM
Sham Reddy CRS
Howard Hanna RE Services, Dayton, OH - Dayton, OH
CRS

Not crazy about them!!!

Automated valuation models plug in basic property characteristics like square footage, number of bedrooms and baths, publicly available data, local market information, and price trends into a computer algorithm to arrive at an estimated value for a property.  

Jul 31, 2016 09:24 PM
Jerry Newman
Brown Realty, 210-789-4216, - San Antonio, TX
Texas REALTOR, San Antonio Military Relocation

Yes, Sham. They can be useful, but never trusted. They certainly can't take the place of an actual visual inspection of the property, like I did last night.

Thanks for stopping by! Have a Great Week!

Aug 02, 2016 03:37 AM
Endre Barath, Jr.
Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices California Properties - Beverly Hills, CA
Realtor - Los Angeles Home Sales 310.486.1002

Jerry the Titleof your post should be 'ALL Knowledgeable agents do not Trust  AVM''s:))Endre

Aug 07, 2016 02:41 PM
Jerry Newman

Yes, Endre. That would be a great title, since I don't know any agents that would trust them.

Aug 17, 2016 10:24 PM
Debbie Reynolds, C21 Platinum Properties
Platinum Properties- (931)771-9070 - Clarksville, TN
The Dedicated Clarksville TN Realtor-(931)320-6730

Overall I think the public knows these are not fact and need to trust a local source and expert. Good post Jerry.

Aug 08, 2016 12:41 AM
Jerry Newman

Yes, Debbie, I would hope the public knows that truth about the AVMs. Hiring a local REALTOR is always recommended.

Aug 17, 2016 10:26 PM
Claude Labbe
RLAH / @properties - Washington, DC
Realty for Your Busy Life

If you find a half dozen avm's, you will find a half dozen different numbers.  What really does concern me is the variation those half dozen numbers will show.

As you well know, the sellers will pick one they prefer, which is usually not the one the buyer prefers.

Let's stick with professional appraisers with realtor support and opinion.

Aug 17, 2016 02:57 PM
Jerry Newman
Brown Realty, 210-789-4216, - San Antonio, TX
Texas REALTOR, San Antonio Military Relocation

Exactly, Claude Labbe Our professional appraisers and real estate agents can give a much better evaluation than these automated systems.

Aug 17, 2016 10:28 PM