There have been many scapegoats in history.  

Steve Bartman, the Chicago Cub fan who many believe cost the Cubs a trip to the World Series for the first time in nearly 60 years.

Bill Buckner, who made an error at first base that Red Sox fans believe cost them the 1986 World Series.

According to legend, some ancient cultures would sacrifice criminals in response to natural disasters.

I won't mention the political scapegoats.  For many, even their mention is painful.

Scapegoats have been with us throughout history.   Some people need them to give a face to catastrophes that are beyond rationalization.   

To make the unexplainable easier to explain.   To make it so we can look in the mirror and not see the problem.

If you read the comments in Active Rain, it's pretty clear.  The scapegoat in the $900 billion mortgage crisis is the stated income loan.  

It's all the stated income loans fault!!   Liar loans.   Borrowers being deceitful to qualify for homes they couldn't afford.  Agents pushing loan officers to "go stated" to get their deals done.  Unethical loan officers making up income to get the borrower's qualified. 

Its soooooo obvious.  That's the reason for the mess!!!   Off with its head!!!!

The truth cannot be any further out in left field than one of those Sammy Sosa towering home runs hit out on Waveland Avenue in the incredible McGuire battle of ‘98.

The stated income loan has been with us many, many years as the loan of choice for the self-employed borrower.   It came with a few stipulations.   You had to be self-employed.  You had to have great credit and a nice-sized down-payment.  At least 20% down.

And historically, those loans had a very low default rate similar to full doc loans,

Then came the Millennium.   A new century with new hope, spirit and revitalization.  And with each year, the stated income loan became a little easier to get.   

A little less credit needed.   A little less down payment.   A little less information about your job.

I can remember banks, backed by Wall Street, offering 100% financing for stated income borrowers with 620 credit scores and being salaried was acceptable....oh, yeah, one day out of bankruptcy OK too!!!

Did I sell those loans?  Of course.    And as opposed to many here, I refuse to apologize.

I believe, when you are in sales, you sell the products that you have in your inventory.

In my opinion, and many others, 100% financing for all borrowers, of all documentation types, all the way down to a 580 credit score and below fueled the greatest real estate explosion in history.

Speculators fueled it even more just as they had the stock market and tech stocks of the late 90's.     

And just like the stock market, prices got too high for the investors to make money, they left, and we ended up with too much supply for the demand.   

Depreciation set in.  People had none of their own "blood" in the deal or even worse they had actually "profited" by draining the equity of their home in the hot market, so they walked. 

Or their ARM that they had agreed to because they wanted the "lowest payment possible" and would simply "refinance" later adjusted and there was no longer a refinance opportunity.

There are villians and victims scattered all over this warfield.

The stated income loan is a small player in the colossal economic and emotional damage that the market is experiencing.    

And like all scapegoats, history will eventually expose the truth.

Moises Alou played left field for the Cubs in 2003.  He was the guy who was about to catch the second out of the 8th inning.  The Cubs would be four outs away from their first World Series in 56 years with their best pitcher on the hill.

Steve Bartman, reached out for a foul ball, got in Alou's way, and in a nanosecond, destroyed the dreams of Cubs fans everywhere.

A few weeks ago, Alou, who now plays for the Mets, was talking to a reporter after a game.  He told the guy, "The funny thing is I wouldn't have caught it anyway."

 

 

 
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24 Comments on The Scapegoat of The Mortgage Crisis : The Dastardly Stated Income Loan

Hey Aaron, I totally agree that stated income loans have their place in this world.  We bought our current house with one as I was a waitress with tip compliance when we bought it.  We also had 10% down.  We also took out a second to put in a pool.  This was all prior to our boom.  We still ended up with negative equity today when we had doubled our equity at the height.

Luckily we are fixed in our rates!

Look at all the pent up demand in our market as tipped income workers could not buy after the stated loans started disappearing.  Prices had to go down tremendously for them to get into conforming loans.  If we ever see such easy money again, we will see another boom again.

05/02/2008 08:08 AM by Renee Burrows - Las Vegas NV Real Estate (Nevada Realty Solutions)


Aaron,

Great post...and with a baseball flavor...a must read!!! Thanks,   Fran

05/02/2008 08:58 AM by Fran 'The Title Man' Gaspari Title Insurance-PA & NJ (Patriot Land Transfer, Inc.)


Renee---Someone sent me a great quote yesterday from William Feather, "Success seems to be largely a matter of hanging on after others have let go."  The stated income loan, which is difficult to get today, and even more difficult to process for those like us who stll have it, will return.

Thanks, Fran.  I appreciate it and I am now starting to feel baseball season!

05/02/2008 09:51 AM by Aaron Gordon, Home Loan Consultant, Las Vegas, NV (Home Loan Consultant)


Hello Aaron,

Outstanding post amd I agree 100% with everything you've said. Excellent post.

Sean Allen

05/02/2008 01:26 PM by International Financing Solutions


Nicely said, Aaron. Great entry. I love the analogies to baseball (I'm a Red Sox and Cubs fan). Thanks and best wishes to you and yours!

~ Jamie

05/02/2008 02:07 PM by Jamie Woods (First Metropolitan Mortgage)


Aaron:  Great post.  Stated Income is a necessity and IT'S BACK.  Of course Verified Assets go along with it, my now that makes sense.  Loved the baseball analogies, so true, so true.  History will sing another tune and it will be back.  Patti Geib - Capital Line Funding Group - CA

05/02/2008 03:56 PM by Patti Geib (Capital Line Funding Group)


Thanks Patti.   Its amazing what what you have to go thru on a stated income loan today to prove reasonability but a lot of loan officers today either cant get them done or have very limited access to them.

05/02/2008 04:03 PM by Aaron Gordon, Home Loan Consultant, Las Vegas, NV (Home Loan Consultant)


Great post.  I deal with people facing foreclosures all day long and guess what, very very few are stated income. 

I have been trying to find a good stated income product here in Florida without much success - My FICO is almost 800 with verifiable assets but they all run like I have the plague.  God forbid I want to buy a NOO!

 

05/02/2008 04:34 PM by Wendy Smith Real Estate


Great post Aaron. It does take two to tango though right. If the lenders did not offer this loan we probably would not be in this mess.

05/02/2008 05:29 PM by Mike Jackson (Realty World Global)


Very artistically written. Thoroughly enjoyed your post. 

05/02/2008 05:57 PM by Alan Robinson (PTE REAL ESTATE GROUP)


Wendy--- You will want to try Bank of America or Countrywide.  But be prepared.  It wont be easy, even with your excellent credit.

Thanks, Mike.  I agree 100%.  The stated income loan is not innocent here.  100% stated was a major part of the problem.   But there is a place for these loans with reasonable down payments.

Thats very kind, Alan.  I appreciate it.

05/02/2008 06:03 PM by Aaron Gordon, Home Loan Consultant, Las Vegas, NV (Home Loan Consultant)


Love the clever analogies, I do agree stated loans that made sense are perfectly fine but like you said we are sales people and sell whats in our inventory, it didn't made sense to me that people with 580 scores going no doc and getting a house they know very well they can't qualify for when the interest only arm expires.  Overall good post, I still do stated loans at 80% but has to verify assets and that my friend is a "makes sense loan" cheers

05/02/2008 06:56 PM by Justin Williams - Loan Officer (Prosperity Mortgage)


If people want something bad enough, apparently they are willing to lie and forge for it! I am not sure why though.

05/02/2008 09:01 PM by Christy Powers - Pooler, Savannah Real Estate Agent (Keller Williams Coastal Area Partners)


As a Sox fan, we were quite happy with the interference...it helped us get to the World Series Win first. Ah, the poor Cubs fans. :)

05/02/2008 10:07 PM by Jennifer Kirby, the Luxury Agent (Exit Realty Eden Prairie)


nice post. Alou should've gotten ahead of the ball and said that in the press conference after the game. saved the poor guy a lot of misery.

05/02/2008 10:16 PM by Ron Domke of Casa Latino--San Pedro (Casa Latino Southern California)


The cash flow has to come from somewhere, whether it's on a tax form or from the banks, the cash flow has to be proveable. It isn't like waiters/waitresses are sending in rolls of quarters & wadded up dollar bills for their payments. In such cases the proper thing would be for the bank they have a relationship with, where their cash is flowing through on a regular basis, make them a loan. They have the best financial relationship with this borrower and it is a very smart thing to make sure any of your money you loan out is going to someone who is who they say they are.

 People just completely forget the 5 C's of lending, Credit, Capacity, Capital, Collateral and Cash flow. People have taken for granted the model of banks lending other peoples money (OPM) where it was, at is worst, mildly about Collateral and nothing else. Now we have declining markets, Collateral is a week pillar, so you increase the Capital and Credit required and want to be sure someone can make their payments.. so Cash flow has to verified.

Stated income should be given out very sparingly.. quite simply it is a high risk factor except for exceptional borrowers who have exceptional relationships with their banks. We are returning to that model and that is a good thing for the long term health of America. Unfortunately for the people who thought that gravy train would continue that will be a painful realization. Anyone who has ever studied bubbles will realize that easy credit has a hand in all of them and the contraction of easy credit is never handled well by the participants who thought it was a new paradigm that would last forever.

Stated Income and Negative Amortization loans were highly specialized niches never meant for the masses. Unfortunately they were given away to the masses and we are all suffering the results. There is no magic, it isn't complicated. It is just people are SO dependent on things being how they were the last 5 years instead of how they were the previous 50 before that. If you feel so strongly about stated income loans, band some people together and start financing them, I guarantee you will have no lack of borrowers (but I rather suspect you will have a lack of people willing to participate in lending on those terms).

05/02/2008 10:25 PM by Dude


Just like handguns, it isn't the product, it is how people use it.  Stated income loans aren't the problem, improper use is the problem.

05/02/2008 10:31 PM by Lane Bailey - REALTOR & Car Guy (Diamond Dwellings Realty)


I like your anology Aaron. Somebody has to be blamed. You are in a tough business now, as we all are.

05/02/2008 10:44 PM by Tigard Oregon Real Estate >> Wayne B. Pruner, GRI (Oregon First)


Well said sean....for those of us who are self employed!!

05/03/2008 09:45 AM by


Stated income loans are O.K.  Buyers pay a lot of money for them.  For self employed and some others, they have a place.

 

05/03/2008 03:52 PM by Lenn Harley, Homefinders.com, MD & VA Real Estate


Yes, SI has its place but - and every single person here already knows this, even if they won't openly admit it: it was abused terribly starting in early '04 and extending well into '07. I personally saw this abuse in three states and with multiple companies.

And it wasn't just the borrowers, fraud was committed on a major scale by everyone who had a financial figer in the pie: originators, lenders, peripheral agents, appraisers, brokers.

Personally, I'd applaud large-scale prosecutions (still possible) and making examples of the worst offenders with fines and Club Fed. Fraud is a CRIME.

The innocent among us, those who acted legally and ethically, those who didn't just wink and nod at the janitor claiming $150K annual income to line their pockets, are going to be cleaning this mess up for another 5 years, at least.

05/03/2008 05:46 PM by Robert Kerr (Kerr Financial)


Aaron: Gosh, what has happened around the Rain? Just when I am the judge of mortgage week in review a whole stinkin rash of brilliant mortgage posts are written. What in the world got everyone so fired up???

This is beautifully written and as you know, I am on the same page as you.

To Robert Kerr: I am NOT for large scale prosecutions. I so agree there was abuse. That has been solved by tighter guidelines.

Our entire industy is paying for this and will for many years. As a whole, we are suffering and on our collective butts. Why would we throw salt into the wounds and draw attention to one of the most profoundly embarassing moments in the history of our entire industry?

 

05/03/2008 08:35 PM by Janet Guilbault, California Mortgage Expert (Peregrine Lending Company)


Keep on pressing, Justin.  I agree wholeheartedly.

Christy--- Sure, they lie when they want something but then they tell the truth or fault others when it goes bad.

I am hopeful to see a Cubs World Series in my life time, Jennifer.  But I am already 42.

So true, Ron.  That poor Bartman has been in hell for 5 years.   Even with Alou's comment, he is still the one of the most hated men in Chi-town history.

Unfortunately, Dude, I find it difficut to respond to anonymous posts.  However, I can assure you one could put together a tremendous pool of money for self-employed borrowers at 75 LTV with 720+ credit scores.

Agreed, Lane.

I agree, Wayne, that someone has to be blamed.....and that someone is nearly everyone who was in the business at the time.

Agreed, Lenn.   I am certainly not an advocate for 90-100% stated income loans.   But there is a place for them with big down payments, great credit scores, and higher interest rates to reflect risk.

No question, Robert and I am not defending the abusers.  I am pointing the finger at them.  The stated income loan was their weapon but not the problem.

Thanks, Janet!!  I get to do the review in two weeks.  I am pretty excited about it.    Good luck with it!

 

 

05/04/2008 11:51 PM by Aaron Gordon, Home Loan Consultant, Las Vegas, NV (Home Loan Consultant)


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