This is a two part piece I posted over on Linkedin. I have combined the posts here into one. Both present some interesting scenarios to the housing market and of course, the economy regardless of who actually wins come this November.
If Hillary Won the Presidency:
A recent article in TheFiscalTimes.com stated that Hillary would be a “boon to housing prices and home finance, with a neutral impact on the economy.” Hillary long track record of public service may offer her insight into the policies be on the campaign trail. In a five-way comparison between Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders, Donald Trump, John Kasich, and Ted Cruz, both Hillary and John Kasich scored positive results for the “expected impact on home value forecast” and the “expected impact of housing finance reform”. Hillary came in neutral on the “expected impact on overall economic outlook. The other three came in with negative expectations on all three counts.
Nearly half of Democrats think that housing prices would rise if Trump were elected compared to only 24% who said the same thing about Hillary Clinton. However, the comparison was tighter among Republicans. 38% feel that home prices would rise of Clinton were elected and only 33% said the same thing of Trump.
But again, these are all speculations and opinions. What do the economists, projections and past results prove? Hillary appeals to middle-class voters with retirement savings accounts in general. If she is concerned about policy issues, she would most likely hear from the business side, the consumer side, And the Labor Side. She is looking to tougher Wall Street enforcement as nearly 67% of the US population prefers the president who favors stricter regulation of financial institutions. This is primarily due to those hurt by the crisis and want to be protected from Wall Street in general.
Dennis Kelleher, president of Better Markets, a nonprofit organization that lobbies for strict enforcement of Dodd-Frank, stated: “given the hostility of the American people toward financial institutions, no one can get elected, saying they are going to side with Wall Street.”
Clinton has proposed levying a “graduated risk-free every year on the liabilities of banks with more than $50 billion in assets, and other financial institutions that are designed by regulators for enhanced oversight.” This could mean fees would be higher for firms with greater amounts of debt and riskier, short-term forms of debt.
Hillary is always described herself as “progressive”, serving on the board of places such as Walmart in the late 1980s to where she is today. She claims that she has progressed with the Democratic Party on issues such as union organizing, immigration, and raising the minimum wage. This could, in fact, prompt new jobs, which increases the level of affordability for the American public, rolling in two more first-time homebuyers and increasing the housing market overall. [Source]
If Trump wins the Presidency:
If Trump wins it will really depend on how well he gets along with Congress. Tax rates are the big thing as well as interest rates and employment. All of these play a major factor in the housing economy. Jobs down; no money; no new buyers. The housing market flops again and we are left with inventory and no consumers.
Trump says he wants to lower business and personal tax rates and as he is a businessman himself, predictions are likely to be the case. He wants more jobs in our country and being a business minded person, this may be a benefit to our country.
Some economists suggest he may lower the interest rate to refinance our own national debt and reduce regulations to businesses can grow and obtain more employees. However, Congress must agree.
A joke around the real estate water cooler has been that there will be a lot of luxury homes on the market as many celebrities claim to leave the country should Trump win. But he has never gotten the affirmation from the mainstream media or of course, from the liberals so there may be many looking at getting out of the country should Trump win.
In the real estate world, Trump is likely to support the housing economy, at least initially. What you see is probably what you get with Trump and his business experience negotiations with leaders all over the world may help bridge the economic gap we have with several world governments.
There’s no doubt that Trump is a good negotiator. This could play well for him or it could backfire – we may have to wait and see if he is the winning candidate. One side note: Trump supports free enterprise and favors less regulation of the market, which may sway some Libertarian voters as they might find his economic policies highly positive.
Will all these things come about? We will have to wait and see come November.
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