I love the title to your post.  It definitely made me stop to read it.  I agree they are finally saying what we already knew.

Pam, that is perspective from Charlottesville, but it is different in every pat of the country.  A good answer of when it is a good time to buy is when it's cheaper than renting.  At least, if someone is willing to stay in their homes for the long term, they'll be doing fine.  However, where I am in NY, a house that costs $900,000 with taxes of $1,000 per month rents for under $4,000.  Could you, in your right mind, tell someone it was a good time to buy?  What about in Manhattan where a one-bedroom apartment  with $900 per month maintenance fees sells for $700,000, but rents for under $4,000 per month?

Thus, there are many different markets and in some places it really couldn't be a worse time to buy.  How could someone in certain areas of Florida say it's a good time to buy, when they know the average days on market is going to be 300+ if the owner wants to turn around and sell?

That's why the NAR advertisement is so pernicious.  It say, "Now is a Great Time to Buy."  While it may be true of gasoline, bread and housing (in a few areas), it's certainly not the case everywhere.  Thus, it gives Realtors a worse image, when they pay their dues to a group making these ads.  Theys should stop.

Finally, a good rule of thumb is that the best time to buy is when everyone tells you you are crazy for doing so.  That's when you know the market has finally crashed.  For example, if you told people you were going to sell your home and buy gold 10 years ago, people would have said you were nuts.  But, you would have tripled you money, at a minimum.

I think the reality is, now might turn out to have been a good time to buy and it might be the opposite, but nobody can see future.

The sad truth about what you are saying is that it took over a year of gloom and doom predictions from the media for the general public to fully buy into their propaganda, further depressing a slowing market.  I'm sure it will take just as long for the public to fully get the new message that good times are here again.  The media often propagates whatever agenda they have for so long that it actually becomes a self fulfilling prophecy.  What I fail to understand is why the media works so hard to shape public opinion instead of honestly reporting news.

I have a problem with your sell your house and buy gold analogy.  While you might have tripled your money by selling your house and buying gold, you would either be homeless or paying rent, niether option would be on my short list of preferences.  But I do get your point.

What gives you an idea that they aren't just reporting the news.  In addition, when they interview people, they are only asking for that person's opinion.  Strange.

Dave, do you watch the news?  How often do they report news in an unbiased and accurate manner?  Not often IMO.  The media kept "predicting" the demise of the real estate market long before the market turned, and I'm convinced that their daily reports of the immanent demise of the market actually contributes to the decline by essentially brainwashing the public that the decline is inevitable, thus causing a near panic knee jerk reaction.  The media today is favoring the "were going into recession theme".  If they keep saying it long enough we will head into recession weather or not the economy was really going that direction.  The economists are divided on this issue, but the media is focused on one theme.

Darrell - I agree that it might not be the time to buy in all areas.  But it is a good time to buy in some areas.  Real estate as we all know is local and it would be a much better thing for them to give a more ballanced picture, talk about how real estate is local, that all markets are not depressed and encourage people to do their homework, talk with their local Realtors and determine when the time to buy is in their area.

Pam,

 You are a CLASS ACT!!!  Right after I post to your blog, in very mild disagreement, you respond with niceness to me.  We have a glut of overpriced homes in NY and a shortage of good people like you.

David

Pam,

 You are a CLASS ACT!!!  Right after I post to your blog, in very mild disagreement, you respond with niceness to me.  We have a glut of overpriced homes in NY and a shortage of good people like you.

David

It's just a fact that bad news is more compelling than good news. The media knows this and would rather report gloom than positive aspects of the news. I say they've worn this story out...it's time for the pigs to fly!

Randy - Glad you enjoyed the title.  I like to have fun with these things.

Wow - Sorry about that.  I don't know why it posted 3X. Maybe I hit send 3 times!!!  It's exactly what I tell my dad not to do when he sends something to the printer and it doesn't go the first time.  Oh well.

 By the way - I have to agree with a lot of what is said above.  My sister is a journalist for Forbes and has taught me a thing or two about media bias.  I was always under the impression that it meant the media was baised in one way or another.

 Now I know that it means there is a general bias in the media that something is deserving of media at all.  It means that a journalist, who has no story to write, still needs to write a story if they want to keep their jobs.  So, on slow news days, they are filling in the gap with crap, for lack of a classier way to say it.

 So, to that end, I do believe that media bias has caused real estate to be a hot issue as it's easy to get comments from the 'guy on the street', etc.  However, I do also feel that real estate is down and will likely stay down for many years.   Everyone is critical of me saying this, as a broker and all, but I feel it is reality.  In places like NYC, things have become overpriced by two to three times what the should sell for based upon any reasonable multiple of their underlying rental values or any other rational model for value.  I say this with a background as a Certified General Appraiser and as a studen of economics, not only in school, but in the 16 years since I've left.

Cliff - I do think you have a point.  The media does tend to focus on the negative as they feel it makes a better story.  Then deservedly of not the public joins in like chicken little with the sky is falling.  And yes the market was declining, but I do think the media helped to send it into freefall.soncoya

Jim you are right.  Very rarely do we see a positive news story. 

"However, I do also feel that real estate is down and will likely stay down for many years.   Everyone is critical of me saying this, as a broker and all, but I feel it is reality.  In places like NYC, things have become overpriced by two to three times what the should sell for based upon any reasonable multiple of their underlying rental values or any other rational model for value.  I say this with a background as a Certified General Appraiser and as a studen of economics, not only in school, but in the 16 years since I've left."-Originally Posted by Dave Farrell

Dave, I hope you're wrong in your predictions.  For obvious reasons.  Being from a small Arizona town, I know our market is nothing like that in NYC.  We have different economies here.  But if history is a teacher then I would suggest that for those of us on the west bank our downturn may not last as long as you see it happening.  Property here became overpriced as a result of the overall trend in the RE market when everyone seemed to be speculating that they could turn a quick buck on price inflation, not based on rental values or other normal investor considerations.  That market has dried up and now buyers are either buying because they want to own or because they feel they are getting a great deal and hope for appreciation in the longer term.  The "experts" in this part of the country are suggesting that we may have already reached the bottom of the curve or will do so by next year.  In fact, one article I read suggested an increase in prices next year by a small margin, with a big upswing in 2010.  All in all, real estate is generally a long wave cycle, unlike the stock market which operates on much shorter cycles.  Since we have been in a down cylce for 2 1/2 years the it would make sense that we are nearing the bottom and will see a return to increasing prices in another year followed by 3 or 4 years of price escalation before the next peak is reached and the next dowturn follows.

Yup, tornadoes in Virginia.  THAT is why pigs are bee-boppin' through the air.  Saahhh-weeee!

The best time to buy is when you WANT. Not when your mom, or a mortgage broker, or a Realtor tell you.  You have a housing need brought on by, as one post said, being sick of renting AND wanting a piece of the American Dream.  That is the underlying driving force of our economy: satisfying a primary need--shelter.

It's a global market.  And popular media is a global "event" catering to our insatiable lust for all things gory, ugly, sensational, and tragic.  The human condition (and the misery thereof) is often the foundation that syndicated media builds viewership through--Oprah, Dr Phil, Springer...even the apocolyptic rantings and ravings from the many assorted religious sects--it's all about watching other people's problems and feeling relief 'cause they're worse off than us!  Another form of pathos (from Greek theater tragedies).

And I believe also that Pam is citing the fact that our local market, while insulated to a degree from the global trends, still feels the effects of global media trying to group us as one.  Doom and gloom sells.

And globally broadcast doom and gloom can trigger a self-perpetuating downward cycle.  Buyers lsten to "experts" saying now isn't good, buyers are told to wait 'till the market bottoms out.  But, as another poster said, you can't time a market.  You need to buy when you're ready.  We only know history, we don't know the future.  For all we know, we could all be speaking Mandarin next week.

Now Charlottesville IS unique and it's real estate market, while experiencing a correction this past year or so, has not experienced a huge downturn like many others across the nation.  I know, I recently moved from New Hampshire to Virginia--whoo-boy!  Things are desperate in New Hampshire.  Once one of the fastest and strongest markets in the country?  And now, people are scared.  I'm worried, too.  I've got a house I've dropped the price on by $80,000 up there and it looks I'm going to be chasing values for a time, still.

We're not chasing values here, in C'ville.  Yes, sellers (Realtors) have had to adjust their pricing stratagies, and yes, seller concessions are more the norm.  But the employment picture remains positive as our main employers, the hospitals, university, GE Fanuc and military, continue to grow and hire accordingly.

Yup, tornadoes in Virginia.  THAT is why pigs are bee-boppin' through the air.  Saahhh-weeee!

The best time to buy is when you WANT. Not when your mom, or a mortgage broker, or a Realtor tell you.  You have a housing need brought on by, as one post said, being sick of renting AND wanting a piece of the American Dream.  That is the underlying driving force of our economy: satisfying a primary need--shelter.

It's a global market.  And popular media is a global "event" catering to our insatiable lust for all things gory, ugly, sensational, and tragic.  The human condition (and the misery thereof) is often the foundation that syndicated media builds viewership through--Oprah, Dr Phil, Springer...even the apocolyptic rantings and ravings from the many assorted religious sects--it's all about watching other people's problems and feeling relief 'cause they're worse off than us!  Another form of pathos (from Greek theater tragedies).

And I believe also that Pam is citing the fact that our local market, while insulated to a degree from the global trends, still feels the effects of global media trying to group us as one.  Doom and gloom sells.

And globally broadcast doom and gloom can trigger a self-perpetuating downward cycle.  Buyers lsten to "experts" saying now isn't good, buyers are told to wait 'till the market bottoms out.  But, as another poster said, you can't time a market.  You need to buy when you're ready.  We only know history, we don't know the future.  For all we know, we could all be speaking Mandarin next week.

Now Charlottesville IS unique and it's real estate market, while experiencing a correction this past year or so, has not experienced a huge downturn like many others across the nation.  I know, I recently moved from New Hampshire to Virginia--whoo-boy!  Things are desperate in New Hampshire.  Once one of the fastest and strongest markets in the country?  And now, people are scared.  I'm worried, too.  I've got a house I've dropped the price on by $80,000 up there and it looks I'm going to be chasing values for a time, still.

We're not chasing values here, in C'ville.  Yes, sellers (Realtors) have had to adjust their pricing stratagies, and yes, seller concessions are more the norm.  But the employment picture remains positive as our main employers, the hospitals, university, GE Fanuc and military, continue to grow and hire accordingly.

Pam:  This sort if news reporting makes me furious; however. it is an opportunity in many cases for those of us who have the REAL facts to present ourselves as the true and knowledgable economists in our individual markets.  I put out a monthly newsletter that makes quite a ripple every month among my readers when I give them the REAL stats as to real estate performance in the area.  So I have turned this into an opportunity to expand my influence and it is working within my sphere; however, the market has slowed down here in recent weeks (when it should be screaming this time of the year), so I have to admit that ABC. CBS and NBC have done their part to push us into a recession!  I am glad to hear that perhaps they may start reversing those actions!  My $0.02, Steve

Either way you see it, it's self-perpetuating.  If things seem to be getting better, people will start grabbing awesome bargains which are to be had in any city.  Others will see the initial folks and follow along.  Soon the supply will dry up a bit and competition will ensue.  Prices will rise . . . 

My point is that it is what you think it is.  I'm in Florida where home values are WAY down.  I'm not concerned at all.  There are people snatching up bargains already. 

THINK that things are PERFECT for buyers and the buyers will come to you and BUY.  Six months later, the talking heads will be reporting on the buying frenzy.

Fulton we are lucky to be in Charlottesville which has always been a stable economy and a good real estate market.  It is nothing like the downturn in some other parts of the country.  However, the media has had an effect on our market as well, just not as severe.

Steve - Good for you to use it as an opportunity to present yourself as the local expert.  When the world gives you lemons make that proverbial lemonade.

Rebecca - Positive thinking or law of attraction.  Soon the media will have run the current story into the ground so they will jump on the bandwagon to report the bottom.  You might as well be positive; negativity acomplishes nothing.  There will always be people who need a home; the trick is to find them.

Pam, So true, the media has been for the most part just a downer. However, in my area we are having a pretty decent year so far. Some nice sales of our waterfront properties, and residential sales have picked up. I for one am very optimistic for the rest of the year. If we, the Real Estate Profs, start telling good news we just might be able to turn around a "media made" gloomy situation. We collectively have a huge voice, let's start using it. No more "gloomy gus's". (Boy I haven't heard that term in a zillion years, where did that come from?)

Jacqueline - you are right.  It is important for us to stay positive.  Negatiity does not accomplish anything and it certainly does not give a client confidence.