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Mortgage Market Guide: Housing Data, Retail Sales Heat Up
|In This Issue|
Last Week in Review: Housing data and Retail Sales measures were up. Wholesale inflation remained tame while consumer inflation edged higher.
Forecast for the Week: Turkey drumsticks and key data will both be served up in this shortened holiday week.
View: Improve your productivity with these six easy tips.
Last Week in Review
“I’d build a big tall house with rooms by the dozen right in the middle of the town.” Fiddler on the Roof. The latest numbers on Housing Starts and Building Permits may encourage dismayed homebuyers facing a lack of inventory.
October Housing Starts surged, the Commerce Department reported, up 25.5 percent from September. It was the highest level since September 2007. Single-family starts, which make up the largest share of the market, jumped nearly 11 percent, while multi-dwelling starts skyrocketed by 68 percent. From October 2015 to October 2016, Housing Starts were up 23.3 percent. October Building Permits also rose 0.3 percent.
In more good news, Retail Sales were solid in October, which could spark a boost in the U.S. economy heading into the holiday shopping season. The Commerce Department reported Retail Sales rose 0.8 percent, above expectations, while September’s numbers were revised higher. The positive numbers in September and October were the best two-month rise since early 2014. Retail Sales are up 4.3 percent from a year ago.
Wholesale inflation was unchanged and still tame in October, per the Producer Price Index report. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) edged higher but was in line with expectations in October at a 0.4 percent increase, though this was the largest gain in six months. Core CPI (which strips out volatile food and energy) was just below estimates. Year-over-year consumer inflation numbers edged lower.
Inflation will continue to be a data point to watch since increased inflation can hurt the value of fixed investments like Mortgage Bonds, and home loan rates to which Mortgage Bonds are tied.
For now, although home loan rates edged higher following election results, they are still in attractive territory.
Forecast for the Week
Investors will have a lot to digest in this shortened Thanksgiving week.
The markets will be closed all day Thursday for Thanksgiving. On Friday, Stocks will close at 1:00 p.m. ET, while the Bond markets will close at 2:00 p.m. ET.
Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve. In contrast, strong economic news normally has the opposite result. The chart below shows Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), which are the type of Bond on which home loan rates are based.
To go one step further, a red “candle” means that MBS worsened during the day, while a green “candle” means MBS improved during the day. Depending on how dramatic the changes are on any given day, this can cause rate changes throughout the day, as well as on the rate sheets we start with each morning.
As you can see in the chart below, Mortgage Bonds have attempted to stabilize following their post-election dive.
Chart: Fannie Mae 3.5% Mortgage Bond (Friday Nov 18, 2016)
The Mortgage Market Guide View…
If your workday can’t get any longer and your to-do list isn’t getting any shorter, you’re probably looking for ways to get more done in less time. Fortunately, there’s no shortage of innovative ways to improve efficiency. Here are six easy productivity hacks to help you in a hurry:
Time your tasks. Timing everything you do during the day not only helps you keep track of where your time goes, but brings a sense of urgency to your work that may help you finish faster. Make sure to take breaks between timed sessions!
Follow “the two-minute rule.” This rule states if a task only takes two minutes or less to complete, just handle it. Otherwise, it may take more time to stop what you are doing, write notes down and recall the task later.
Write more. Writing things down the good old-fashioned way using pen and paper helps minimize digital distractions and improve concentration and recall.
Be meeting mindful. Meetings should be short and have a specific purpose. Shoot for 15 to 30 minutes tops. Requiring an agenda will also help move meetings in a swift direction. Assign homework in advance as needed, so attendees can be ready to roll.
Long email chains can be frustrating and time-wasting. Once a chain deviates from the main subject, stop it and schedule a meeting or identify who in the group should continue the email thread and ask for others to no longer be copied.
Don’t hunt for news. A reader such as feedly or Feedreader can help you organize your best news sources and favorite topics, so you save time hunting around for news manually. Capture it all in one place for efficient reading.
Put these tips to use this week. Then check here for 95 other efficiency hacks and great time-saving tips!
Please feel free to pass these helpful tips along to your team, clients and colleagues.
Economic Calendar for the Week of November 21 – November 25
The Christian Penner Mortgage Team, A Branch of
American Financial Network, Inc
CORP NMLS# 237341 ; Equal Opportunity Employer ; Equal Opportunity Lender American Financial Network, Inc. 10 Pointe Drive, Suite 330, Brea, CA 92821.
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