Calling The Bottom

In today's Wall Street Journal, an article cites Wellesley College Professor Karl Case calling the bottom of the national housing market:

But new housing starts have at last slumped below the seemingly magical one million mark. That happened in March. Every time that has happened in the last 50 years, it proved to be the bottom of a recession."It is really remarkable how much where we are today looks like the bottom we've had in the last three cycles," Mr. Case says. "Every time we've gone below a million starts, the market has cleared at that moment."

Is he right?

Who knows? One question to answer is what does "the bottom" mean? Housing starts? Unit Sales? Prices? What is important for Maui real estate, particularly upper-end Maui oceanfront real estate and resort real estate like in Wailea is that we are seeing more and more articles like this one calling a bottom. Just as the relentless "the sky is falling" press reports over the past few years seeped into the mentality of mainland buyers and affected their thinking about Maui, now these stories will help readjust that thinking. What we are seeing here is a burst of activity at the upper end. Is it just a burst or has that market already turned? It is too soon to tell, but historically the upper end has led the way.