The 2017 Crystal Ball for San Diego, CA Real Estate

By
Real Estate Agent with Big Block Realty 858.232.8722 CA BRE# 01261476
http://activerain.com/droplet/4YVQ

Crystal Ball, well maybe not, but sharing predictions based on trends and stats, definitely...

@2017 started out with a burst off the starting line on January 3rd for me in San Diego County. My buyers were anxious to lock down the rising rates and rising home prices before they were priced out of their "ideal" and had to "settle" for what was practical. The sellers wanted to start right away too, no waiting for the "sweet spot" of  March, which traditionally is when the CA Market is full-tilt-boogie busy by. No, they knew buyers were anxious, why wait, January is the new March in 2017...and so far it's true; we're slammed with multiple offers and outrageous incentives.

 

I privately, laughed sadly at so many of my clients in Q3 & Q4 of 2016 shooting themselves in the foot claiming" I'm waiting to see what the election does to the market." Yikes, what that meant was: I'm waiting for a non-event for real estate (that has never affected the market since I've been an agent) and allow rates to climb and prices to climb on me, then jump back in when all the other sheep jump back in and compete harder for less inventory, more expensive homes and costly rate increases. Great plan!

 

2017 Predictions

 

  • High volume of sales.
  • Inventory Shortage to continue through 2020.
  • Developers will get more incentives to break more ground in 2019-2020.
  • We've not hit a 3% growth rate the last 10 years, causing artificially low rates. This will change and as I predicted last year, the FED announced this in December. 
  • Rates will fluctuate from 2016 Q4 through Summer of 2017 (early Q3) on an upward trend.
  • Rents will continue to rise but are nearing their ceiling, I'm already hearing rent control rumblings in The Bay Area for commercial properties in my hometown of San Mateo, where they are blowing up and I believe becoming one of the most expensive places to live in CA.
  • Move Up Sales have an advantage for owners wanting to sell as $700K-$1.1 Million is one of our most active price ranges with lowest inventory.
  • Income Property Owners have an advantage, rents are climbing.

A Peek...

San Diego's 2016 Q4 Median Sales Prices +%

san diego

 

San Diego's 2016 Q4 % of Original List Price Received

 

san diego

 

San Diego's 2016 Q4 Inventory -%

 

san diego

 

 

 

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Paul S. Henderson, REALTOR®,CRS,
RE/MAX Professionals. - Tacoma, WA
Tacoma Washington Agent/Broker & Market Authority!

I enjoyed what I see in this post Thomas J. Nelson, Realtor, CRS 

Jan 19, 2017 11:10 AM #1
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Praful Thakkar
LAER Realty Partners - Andover, MA
Andover, MA: Andover Luxury Homes For Sale

Interesting take on your market, Thomas J. Nelson, Realtor, CRS.

I wonder what prompts you think of the inventory shortage till 2020. Just my thought - it's about 3 more years by which the new construction should catch up. (More of a discussion and sharing my viewpoint.)

Good to learn that rental market is still hot in San Diego and vicinity. Boston area rentals are going down first time after 2010 - and not sure if that will impact any other market. Rent Stabilization Act may make only a bit of difference as it may not be implemented in private market.

 

Jan 19, 2017 07:50 PM #2
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Praful Thakkar
LAER Realty Partners - Andover, MA
Andover, MA: Andover Luxury Homes For Sale

It's good news that Million is the most desired price range and has the lowest inventory in your market area.

Love your charts - shows prices are up in 2016 and inventory is down! If the same trend continues, chances are, your market will remain hot till 2020!

Brian says we get the trends from West - so if your predictions are right, we are good till 2021 in Boston! (and then I'll retire...lol!)

Jan 19, 2017 07:55 PM #3
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Praful Thakkar
LAER Realty Partners - Andover, MA
Andover, MA: Andover Luxury Homes For Sale

(And after these long comments, I forgot to Thank You for your participation in this contest - Thanks my friend. See you in May at Peak Experience event at Omni.)

Jan 19, 2017 07:56 PM #4
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Thomas J. Nelson, Realtor,CRS,e-Pro

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