If one can assume that the national economy will continue to grow as it has for the past several years, it's pretty easy to predict what 2017 is going to look like in Northern Colorado - it's a textbook supply vs. demand scenario that is essentially a continuation of what has been going on for the last 4 years.
During that time, the Northern Colorado economy has experienced vigorous economic growth from new and expanding businesses. Combined with its attractive lifestyle, new employment opportunities have led to large population gains - from 2014 to 2015, the Greeley MSA ranked 6th among the nations 381 MSA's for population growth and the Fort Collins MSA ranked 10th. And the region simply hasn't added sufficient housing units to accomodate that growth.
In 2015, Colorado added 102,000 new residents, but only added 25,143 new housing units of all types. With an average of 2.5 people per household, that's a 12,000 unit shortfall for that year. 2016 data isn't yet available, but it's going to show similar results.
So what we're looking at is simply more people wanting homes than the available supply can satisfy. And when that happens, prices rise. This is what that has looked like for the major Northern Colorado markets:
And here's a look at the culprit:
Traditional analysis would suggest that those higher prices would incentivize more homeowners to offer their homes for sale and cash in. But people are tied to their jobs and communities. For them, selling also means buying, and rising prices and lack of inventory will then put them on the other, less favorable side of the transaction. With wage gains running at a much slower pace than housing prices, that's a difficult place to be, so people are generally staying put. That leaves new construction to take up the slack, and, for a variety of reasons like available land, regulations, builder market choices and uncertainty, that isn't likely to make a significant difference.
So 2017 is going to be another year of high housing demand and low inventory. This will be our 4th year of that situation, and as Realtors, we're all getting pretty good at making the most of it - but that doesn't mean we have to like it.
It's a bad market for buyers and selling agents. Multiple offers are common and homes are expected to sell for more than list price. Successful buyers are entering transactions with less protection than optimal, giving away inspection and appraisal rights, offering other concessions to make their offers more appealing, and operating at the limits of their budgets. Frustration levels are running high for buyers with less ability to be flexible, such as those using FHA loans, as well as for their agents. Many are simply giving up, while others are moving further away, but there are few reasonable commutes that provide much improvement.
For sellers and listing agents, it's a different experience. It's relatively easy to sell a home in Northern Colorado these days. While pricing isn't technically any easier, the market will provide any needed corrections on the upside - probably by accommodating them - and downside misses just look like invitations to bid. Sellers are happy - homes are selling quickly, no one is asking for seller concessions, and contingent contracts are almost non-existent. But for listing agents, it's not all sunshine - there just aren't that many listings to be had.
The coming year is going to be another challenging one for agents. There is simply going to be less business being done, and more competition for what there is (yes, of course the number of licensed agents is growing...mumble,mumble). Listing and negotiating skills are critical right now, and finding creative ways to apply them will be necessary for success.
And on the macro level, as an industry, we need to work with our communities and our builders to find ways to increase the housing stock, particularly at the entry and lower-mid levels. If we can moderate the imbalances there, the rest of the market should correct itself.
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