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2017 Housing Market Prediction - Northern Colorado

By
Real Estate Broker/Owner with New Paradigm Partners LLC EB #1326335

If one can assume that the national economy will continue to grow as it has for the past several years, it's pretty easy to predict what 2017 is going to look like in Northern Colorado - it's a textbook supply vs. demand scenario that is essentially a continuation of what has been going on for the last 4 years.

 

During that time, the Northern Colorado economy has experienced vigorous economic growth from new and expanding businesses. Combined with its attractive lifestyle, new employment opportunities have led to large population gains - from 2014 to 2015, the Greeley MSA ranked 6th among the nations 381 MSA's for population growth and the Fort Collins MSA ranked 10th. And the region simply hasn't added sufficient housing units to accomodate that growth.

 

In 2015, Colorado added 102,000 new residents, but only added 25,143 new housing units of all types. With an average of 2.5 people per household, that's a 12,000 unit shortfall for that year. 2016 data isn't yet available, but it's going to show similar results.

 

So what we're looking at is simply more people wanting homes than the available supply can satisfy. And when that happens, prices rise. This is what that has looked like for the major Northern Colorado markets:

 

Northern Colorado Median Home Prices January 2017

 

And here's a look at the culprit:

 

Northern Colorado Median Home Inventory January 2017

 

Traditional analysis would suggest that those higher prices would incentivize more homeowners to offer their homes for sale and cash in. But people are tied to their jobs and communities. For them, selling also means buying, and rising prices and lack of inventory will then put them on the other, less favorable side of the transaction. With wage gains running at a much slower pace than housing prices, that's a difficult place to be, so people are generally staying put. That leaves new construction to take up the slack, and, for a variety of reasons like available land, regulations, builder market choices and uncertainty, that isn't likely to make a significant difference.

 

So 2017 is going to be another year of high housing demand and low inventory. This will be our 4th year of that situation, and as Realtors, we're all getting pretty good at making the most of it - but that doesn't mean we have to like it.

 

It's a bad market for buyers and selling agents. Multiple offers are common and homes are expected to sell for more than list price. Successful buyers are entering transactions with less protection than optimal, giving away inspection and appraisal rights, offering other concessions to make their offers more appealing, and Textboxoperating at the limits of their budgets. Frustration levels are running high for buyers with less ability to be flexible, such as those using FHA loans, as well as for their agents. Many are simply giving up, while others are moving further away, but there are few reasonable commutes that provide much improvement.

 

For sellers and listing agents, it's a different experience. It's relatively easy to sell a home in Northern Colorado these days. While pricing isn't technically any easier, the market will provide any needed corrections on the upside - probably by accommodating them - and downside misses just look like invitations to bid. Sellers are happy - homes are selling quickly, no one is asking for seller concessions, and contingent contracts are almost non-existent. But for listing agents, it's not all sunshine - there just aren't that many listings to be had.

 

The coming year is going to be another challenging one for agents. There is simply going to be less business being done, and more competition for what there is (yes, of course the number of licensed agents is growing...mumble,mumble). Listing and negotiating skills are critical right now, and finding creative ways to apply them will be necessary for success.

 

And on the macro level, as an industry, we need to work with our communities and our builders to find ways to increase the housing stock, particularly at the entry and lower-mid levels. If we can moderate the imbalances there, the rest of the market should correct itself.

Posted by
Mary & Dick

Mary & Dick Greenberg
New Paradigm Partners LLC
2601 S. Lemay Ave. #41
Fort Collins, CO 80525
970-689-4663
www.maryanddick.com

 

Data Source: IRES MLS

Comments(19)

Anna "Banana" Kruchten
HomeSmart Real Estate - Phoenix, AZ
602-380-4886

Dick 11 offers within days.....I hear you. And you're right 1 winner and 10 losers isn't a good thing. We need more inventory.  We see this happening here as well but in the under 300 price range.

Jan 27, 2017 08:23 AM
Michael Jacobs
Pasadena, CA
Pasadena And Southern California 818.516.4393

Hi Dick AKA Economist Guy - okay, the culprits have been identified and it appears Northern Colorado, like some other areas in our country, needs a inventory revolution to surface.  

While that process may be more evolutionary, I am confident that those who contact you and Mary for representation in the areas you serve, will be in the best possible position to take advantage of the opportunities that become available whether they be a buyer or seller -- perhaps, even both.   

Jan 27, 2017 08:27 AM
Debb Janes
Nature As Neighbors - Camas, WA
Put My Love of Nature At Work for You

It is a rough market for buyers. And, we also understand the reluctance of homeowners to list their current house given the lack of inventory for a replacement. It's a Catch-22 and extremely frustrating. 

Jan 27, 2017 08:34 AM
Kathleen Daniels, Probate & Trust Specialist
KD Realty - 408.972.1822 - San Jose, CA
Probate Real Estate Services

Dick, we have seen these trends in the past.  There has been a historical cycle that just seems to repeat. It is a touch market in so many areas across the nation.

Jan 27, 2017 09:32 AM
Nina Hollander, Broker
Coldwell Banker Realty - Charlotte, NC
Your Greater Charlotte Realtor

Great analysis, Dick. Sounds a lot like the Charlotte market, but I think we've had a bit more of a head start on new construction, which is helping relieve the thineventory to a small extent. Problem is that new construction has become very expensive and prices people out of that market.

Jan 27, 2017 09:50 AM
Hannah Williams
HomeStarr Realty - Philadelphia, PA
Expertise NE Philadelphia & Bucks 215-820-3376

I understand your Mumble mumble .....I hope your prediction turns more positive in 2017 ..One thing for sure anyone choosing your services will be wonderfully represented

Jan 27, 2017 10:31 AM
Carol Williams
Although I'm retired, I love sharing my knowledge and learning from other real estate industry professionals. - Wenatchee, WA
Retired Agent / Broker / Prop. Mgr, Wenatchee, WA

I sure hope supply can start catching up with demand!  Too much pressure from too many angles otherwise.  

Jan 27, 2017 10:34 AM
Ron and Alexandra Seigel
Napa Consultants - Carpinteria, CA
Luxury Real Estate Branding, Marketing & Strategy

Dick,

Great prediction, and we are huge fans of anecdotal evidence.  They always are a great way to understand what is happening.  A

Jan 27, 2017 12:11 PM
Debbie Laity
Cedaredge Land Company - Cedaredge, CO
Your Real Estate Resource for Delta County, CO

The low inventory is hurting a lot of people...buyers and sellers as well as driving agents nuts. Hopefully something will break lose this year. We aren't seeing much new construction in my area, but we don't need the houses, either. 

Jan 27, 2017 12:40 PM
Belinda Spillman
Aspen Lane Real Estate Colorful Colorado - Aurora, CO
Colorado Living!

What are these things you call listings.   It has been very scarce down here.  I am wondering if the new ego monster in office is causing some folks to hold steady.  Usually by now, I see an increase in listings but no such luck.

Jan 27, 2017 02:03 PM
George Souto
George Souto NMLS #65149 FHA, CHFA, VA Mortgages - Middletown, CT
Your Connecticut Mortgage Expert

Dick we have the opposite here in CT.  Both extremes can make for challenging times.

Jan 27, 2017 02:32 PM
Myrl Jeffcoat
Sacramento, CA
Greater Sacramento Realtor - Retired

102,000 new residents in 2015 is a lot of growth for Colorado in a single year! Was that the year they made pot legal?

Jan 27, 2017 04:03 PM
Scott Godzyk
Godzyk Real Estate Services - Manchester, NH
One of the Manchester NH's area Leading Agents

That is a common formula for growth and increased values Dick Greenberg , more people than homes available for sale. Have a good Friday

Jan 27, 2017 04:31 PM
Nathan Gesner
American West Realty and Management - Cody, WY
Broker / Property Manager

This is a nice write-up on the market for northern Colorado. Well done!

Jan 27, 2017 09:27 PM
Endre Barath, Jr.
Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices California Properties - Beverly Hills, CA
Realtor - Los Angeles Home Sales 310.486.1002

Dick yes in a competitive market ten losers is not unusual. BTW I did not have to read your post the graphs told me right away the lay of the land. We have had this issue now for going on three years....Endre

Jan 27, 2017 09:41 PM
Praful Thakkar
LAER Realty Partners - Burlington, MA
Metro Boston Homes For Sale

Dick Greenberg - Excellent presentation. The graphs tell the whole story - low inverntory, high demand - these two lead to increase in median price.

Looking at the chart, what was $150K median price in 2013 is now $250K at the end of 2016! That's about 10% every year!

That shows the real growth in your area.

Jan 27, 2017 10:28 PM
Praful Thakkar
LAER Realty Partners - Burlington, MA
Metro Boston Homes For Sale

It seems it's easy to sell the home in your area. I had similar experience recently. We had 40+ groups show up at the open house, more than 12 offers - only one at asking price and all other above asking price. Sold at $22K more than asking price!

The general trend I see, after reading more than 50 prediction posts in this contest is - low inventory and high demnad. With that, marginal increase in mortgage rate will not do much harm to growing economy. Not an expert in this field, though.

Jan 27, 2017 10:31 PM
Praful Thakkar
LAER Realty Partners - Burlington, MA
Metro Boston Homes For Sale

And of course, thanks for your participation in this contest - really appreciate it.

Wishing you all the best in 2017. Dick Greenberg.

Jan 27, 2017 10:32 PM
Chris Ann Cleland
Long and Foster Real Estate - Gainesville, VA
Associate Broker, Bristow, VA

Your market in Fort Collins is definitely feeling more strain from a lack of inventory.  While we in Bristow, VA have seen more stability for the last few years.  I do think 2017 here is going to be about buyers outnumbering sellers though, even here. 

Jan 28, 2017 10:45 AM