Market Continues to Slump in the Poughkeepsie, NY Area

Below are the most current market stats for the Dutchess County, NY area. Notice the average sales price dropped over 13%, that number by itself doesn't mean much, but when you look at last months numbers, the decrease was over 8%. There seems to be a pattern emerging and it doesn't look good for sellers who purchased in 2004-2006 during the peak. Up to this point we've been seeing 2-3% decreases in the average selling prices (not bad, some may even say the market needed it), last month it jumped from the 2-3% to over 8%. Many were hoping this was just a statistical hick up, but with this months numbers in that doesn't seem to be the case. So what does all this mean..... well to put it frankly IT'S A BUYERS MARKET. Not news for any of you I'm sure. If you've read a newspaper, turned on the news or logged onto the internet, I'm sure you've seen all the "THE SKY IS FALLING" media frenzy. You know... "The Housing Crisis"  or my favorite "The Housing Recession". The reality is this is just part of the process. Real Estate runs in cycles, it goes up and it goes down and we are currently in a down market. But if you go back to April 2002, the average selling price was $237,802, now compare that to April 2008 $345,223. That's a 45% increase in 5 years. As my favorite stock predictor puts it "we're taking a little off the top".  I can't predict the future but I believe that 2008 will be the hardest hit in this down market and we'll see the sales prices begin to decrease at a slower rate in early 2009 with the market bottoming out in late 2009 - early 2010. So good news for buyers right.... not so fast. This is an election year, and keeping the economy above water will be front and center, but come December things will change. The dollar has been taking it on the chin for a while now and the Fed can't continue to lower rates without sending our economy into a tailspin. As the dollar weakens the cost of oil increases. As oil/gas increase, inflation will set in. I expect as soon at this election is over you'll see interest rates rise, probably not double digits but likely in the 7-8% range. So if you find right house, don't snooze or you may lose! This year will provide some of the best buying opportunites and rates aren't likely to stay this low for ever.

 April 2008 Sales Statistics