News from the N.A.R.

According to the National Association of Realtors, it appears that many real estate markets across the U.S. are beginning to flatten out - very good news.  Although it could be a couple of months before we see a significant rise in the overall number of real estate transactions, it appears that home values are beginning to stabilize - and in some areas are rising.

According to Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, "Things are beginning to improve, but the availability of affordable mortgages is uneven around the country and sometimes within metropolitan areas," he said. "As anticipated, we continue to look for a soft first half of the year, for both housing and the economy, before notable improvements in the second half. Some time is needed for FHA and new conforming jumbo loans to become widely available."

The PHSI (Pending Home Sales Index) Looks like this:

Northeast: Jumped 12.5 percent in March to 80.8 but remains 15.4 percent below a year ago.

South: Index declined a mere 0.1 percent to 84.9 and is 26.7 percent lower than March 2007.

West: Index declined just 1.4 percent in March to 91.2 and is 9.5 percent below a year ago.

Midwest: Index fell 10.4 percent in March to 74.1 and is 22.3 percent below March 2007.

Looking forward, existing-home sales are projected to rise from an annual pace of 4.95 million in the first quarter to 5.82 million in the fourth quarter. For all of 2008, existing-home sales are likely to total 5.39 million, and then rise 6.1 percent to 5.72 million next year.  According to Yun, "Although more than half of local markets are expected to see price growth this year, the aggregate existing-home price will decline 2.4 percent in 2008, driven by a relatively few markets that are very oversupplied."  The median price is forecast at $213,700 this year before rising 4.1 percent to $222,600 in 2009.  Good news for all of us.

Some areas already are seeing sales increases, underscoring that all real estate is local. In March, unpublished snapshot data shows sales in Bakersfield, Calif., and Jackson, Miss., were higher than a year ago. At the same time, price gains were noted in markets such as Buffalo-Niagara Falls, and Cedar Rapids, Iowa. On May 13, NAR will report first-quarter data on metropolitan area home prices, covering about 150 metro areas, and state home sales.