Ed Taylor, Tribune
May 7, 2008 - 9:55PM
A metropolitan region is emerging that stretches from the Mexican border at Nogales, through Tucson and Phoenix, to the Prescott area - a region that will double in population to 10 million in the next 30 years.
A study released this week by the Morrison Institute of Public Policy at Arizona State University calls this "megapolitan" region the Sun Corridor and says it is one of 20 such super complexes that will attract most of the nation's population growth through 2040.
Robert Lang, a professor of urban planning at Virginia Tech and a co-author of the study, told a gathering of real estate professionals sponsored by Bankers Trust Wednesday that the corridor will not become one uninterrupted urban blot on the map but a series of distinct realms that will interact economically.
"It's based on an idea that economies overlap if you have a certain amount of interchange between people commuting," he said. "Like people, for example, who live in Pinal County that go north and south to work. Those kinds of households create a bridge between Tucson and Phoenix."
Each area will offer its own real estate development opportunities, he said.
Lang was especially optimistic about the prospects for the south East Valley from Tempe, through Mesa, Chandler and Gilbert into Pinal County.
He predicted the region will double in population to two million in the next 30 years. It already possesses a belt freeway (Loop 202) and a "serious" airport - Phoenix-Mesa Gateway Airport - with three runways that can handle almost any type of aircraft. Its core city, Mesa, is bigger than Cleveland, St. Louis and Minneapolis, but its downtown is more worthy of a town of about 10,000 people, Lang said.
That opens opportunities for more redevelopment in the Mesa Town Center, especially if the Phoenix Metro light-rail line is extended from its current planned terminus at Main Street and Longmore to the east, he said.
Also, the East Valley has good prospects for development of new edge cities such as the giant Superstition Vistas proposal south and east of Apache Junction.
Scottsdale offers development opportunities of its own in luxury housing, upscale retail and class A office space while emerging exurbs in Pinal County will attract midmarket housing and retail, he said.
Lang also sees great potential for transit-oriented development around light-rail stations. The light-rail line's stimulus to development is more important than the actual number of riders it attracts, he asserted.
Although Lang's presentation Wednesday focused on real estate, the ASU report also addresses questions raised by so much growth such as governance, infrastructure and quality of life.
The report advocates a more global outlook in education such as more emphasis on foreign languages, most efficient transportation, establishment of more regional authorities such as the Central Arizona Project to deal with common problems and use of improved building materials to reduce the heat-island effect.
Funding for the report was provided by the Stardust Foundation, Arizona Public Service, Salt River Project and Unisource Energy. Copies are available at www.morrisoninstitute.org.
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