I just did some research as to our South Florida real estate market. Here's what I found: There are now 748 single family homes for sale in Weston (compared to about 120 prior to Hurricane Wilma-over 6 times as many!). Only 68 homes are pending at this time (adjusting for the homes that have closed but are still showing pending-aprox. 10). 111 homes have closed since July 1, 2006. This means that if we assume that not a single house is added to the inventory (which is certainly not the case), it will take almost 1 year for all of the houses in Weston to be purchased based on current absorption. There are now 467 condos, townhouses & villas for sale in Weston (compared to about 35 prior to Hurricane Wilma!). 36 are pending (adjusting for closed but not changed in the mls system). 51 have closed since July 1, 2006. If no units enter the market, it will take over a year for all condos, townhouses & villa in Weston to be purchased. There are now 555 single family homes for sale in Pembroke Pines west of I-75 (compared to about 85 prior to Hurricane Wilma-also over 6 times as many). Only 63 homes are pending at this time (adjusting for homes that have closed but are still showing pending-aprox 11). 82 homes have closed since July 1, 2006. This means that if we assume that not a single house is added to the inventory (again not probable), it will take almost 1 year for all of the houses in Pembroke Pines-west to be purchased based on current absorption. (coincidentally the exact same amount of time as Weston) There are now 488 single family homes for sale in Miramar west of I-75. Only 37 homes are pending (adjusting for homes that have closed but are still showing pending-aprox. 11). Only 31 homes have closed since July 1, 2006. This means that if we assume that not a single house is added to the inventory (again, not likely), IT WILL TAKE OVER 2 YEARS FOR ALL OF THE HOUSES IN WEST MIRAMAR TO BE PURCHASED BASED ON CURRENT ABSORPTION! There are now 350 single family homes for sale on Miami Beach. 28 are pending (48 total but adjusting for ones that have sold but haven't be changed in the mls system). Only 11 have closed since July 1, 2006. This means that if no new houses come on the market, it will take OVER 4 years for all homes on Miami Beach to be purchased based on current absorption! Get a load of this! There are now 3009 condos for sale on Miami Beach (compared to less than 1/2 prior to Hurricane Wilma). About 200 are pending. Only 179 have closed since July 1, 2006. This means (with no new units entering the market) that it will take over 2 years for all condos on Miami Beach to be purchased based on current market conditions!
There are 1622 condos, townhouses & villas for sale in Aventura. 83 are pending (adjusting for closed but not reflected as such in the mls). Only 89 units have sold in Aventura since July 1, 2006. Again, assuming no new units entering the market, this means that it will take almost 2 and a half years for all of the units in Aventura to be purchased! The one last item to consider is that this doesn't take into account builder's units and for sale by owner properties. As an example, The Palace in Weston has over 40 resale units for sale but is only listing one unit in each line in the mls. One can easily gauge how many thousands of builder units will be entering the market by sweeping the skyline for construction cranes.
5 Comments on South Florida Real Estate-Did the Bubble Burst? What's Happening With the Market?
AUG
23
2006
David,
Great observation. I do hope you`re wrong otherwise the South Florida Market is in worse trouble than many of us have thought!
If interest remain stable, I feel confidant the market has somewhat stablized. We may see prices dropping in certain area`s like weston, but overall sales have picked up from it`s downward spiral in April-May.
Hi Scott, Whether I'm right or wrong, agents like us will flourish in any market. These "corrections" will help flush out the people that got into this business for a "quick buck". It will also give us some inventory to sell.
I agree with David, during the boom aka "la la land" that we had down here a year or so ago, every other person and his brother became a realtor just for the sake of following everyone. But there is a positive side to it as you mentioned that most of these "realtors" are now leaving the market as they are not used to nor adapted to the normal market conditions as we are now facing. It used to be that you enter a property in MLS and the next day you get 10 contracts, but now they are realizing that you have to work marketing these properties and investing your own funds and time in order to get some results.
If you buy now, you will find a house like the one you bought for $100K or more less than what you paid. You effectively will be catching a falling knife and become instantly underwater on your mortgage! Imagine going to the bank and asking, "I'd like to open an account for minus (-)$100K". After years of deposits adding up to $100K you will have $0 in the account. Silly isn't it? Well that is exactly what you will be doing if you bought a house right now. Maybe a little more, or a little less, but either way doesn't sound too good does it? email me you thoughts dontbuy2007@yahoo.com
If you buy now, you will find a house like the one you bought for $100K or more less than what you paid. You effectively will be catching a falling knife and become instantly underwater on your mortgage! Imagine going to the bank and asking, "I'd like to open an account for minus (-)$100K". After years of deposits adding up to $100K you will have $0 in the account. Silly isn't it? Well that is exactly what you will be doing if you bought a house right now. Maybe a little more, or a little less, but either way doesn't sound too good does it? email me your thoughts dontbuy2007@yahoo.com
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David,
Great observation. I do hope you`re wrong otherwise the South Florida Market is in worse trouble than many of us have thought!
If interest remain stable, I feel confidant the market has somewhat stablized. We may see prices dropping in certain area`s like weston, but overall sales have picked up from it`s downward spiral in April-May.