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Market Trends on the San Francisco Peninsula

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Real Estate Agent with Compass CA DRE# 01215160
"If we buy this place for 900k now, How much do you think we should be able to sell it for in say 2019, or 2020?I understand the future is uncertain, just asking for your estimate."
 
Questions of this type often are asked by buyers In our high-cost area. They are, naturally, a bit shell-shocked by prices and concerned about the future.
 
Not only does appreciation vary from town to town, it varies between single family homes and condos/townhouses. It varies in different price points.
 
To give this particular buyer some idea of what he might expect, based on the past since we can't foresee the future, I pulled historical data in the area and type of properties which interest him the most. 
Appreciation, 5 years, one areaAnother way to look at the same data:
Graph, appreciation, one neighborhoodDoes this assure the buyer that a property will appreciate in value over the next 1 or 2 years? No, we can't foresee the future, but we can see what has happened in the past. Appreciation as has ranged between 4.08% and 14.54% each year over the last 5 years, for a total appreciation of over 58% in 5 years. 
 
Is buying a home or investment property a good idea in the Silicon Valley and San Francisco peninsula? Everyone must decide for him- or herself. I can tell you that I have bought a property in the last couple of years and am happy to have done so.

Comments (11)

Jeremy K. Frost
Keller Williams Realty - Dripping Springs, TX
Associate Broker, ABR,CNE,CRS,ePro,PSA,RENE,SRS

Thank you for keeping us posted and up to date. Best of luck!

Jan 20, 2018 09:36 AM
Grant Schneider
Performance Development Strategies - Armonk, NY
Your Coach Helping You Create Successful Outcomes

Good morning Lottie - I hear people say this about investing all of the time.  All we can do is give states and mention that past performance is not a guarantee.

Jan 20, 2018 09:47 AM
Li Read
Sea to Sky Premier Properties (Salt Spring) - Salt Spring Island, BC
Caring expertise...knowledge for you!

Some regions have been "discovered"...and the fundamentals mean they will always have investment cachet.

Jan 20, 2018 09:56 AM
Elizabeth Weintraub Sacramento Broker
Elizabeth Anne Weintraub, Broker - Sacramento, CA
Put 40 years of experience to work for you

You probably won't believe this, Lottie -- well, maybe you will -- but I started selling investment properties in the 1970s, we predicted in writing future appreciation, based on past trends. Bad risk management move, but we did it anyway back then.

Jan 20, 2018 10:00 AM
Lottie Kendall
Compass - San Francisco, CA
Helping make your real estate dreams a reality

Thank you, Jeremy K. Frost 

Hi Grant Schneider - we can let people see what past appreciation has been; they decide for themselves if it's right for them.

 

Jan 20, 2018 10:36 AM
Lottie Kendall
Compass - San Francisco, CA
Helping make your real estate dreams a reality

Hello Li Read - I hope my acquaintances, Jennifer and Kevin Wilson, reached out to you--they hope to relocate to your gorgeous island!

Jan 20, 2018 10:39 AM
Li Read

Look forward to hearing from your acquaintances, Jennfer and Kevin...hope they contact me.   Would love to send you a referral.


Thank you.


 

Jan 20, 2018 01:14 PM
Lottie Kendall
Compass - San Francisco, CA
Helping make your real estate dreams a reality

Risk management wasn't discussed much, if all, in the 1970s Elizabeth Weintraub Sacramento Real Estate Agent, Top 1% of Lyon Agents Nor were seller disclosures. 

Jan 20, 2018 10:41 AM
Kathleen Daniels, Probate & Trust Specialist
KD Realty - 408.972.1822 - San Jose, CA
Probate Real Estate Services

Lottie,  The market is insane. Appreciation is through the roof. We do not have a crystal ball. We look at trends. Is this market sustainable?  I do not believe so. Yet, with no inventory, those with cash will continue to drive prices up.  

Jan 20, 2018 10:50 AM
Lottie Kendall
Compass - San Francisco, CA
Helping make your real estate dreams a reality

Kathleen Daniels - 14.5% appreciation in 2-bedroom condos in one San Mateo County town in 2017; 58% appreciation in 5 years. First-time buyers today really have to want a place to compete in multiples, waiving all contingencies, often competing with cash buyers.

Jan 20, 2018 04:02 PM
Gita Bantwal
RE/MAX Centre Realtors - Warwick, PA
REALTOR,ABR,CRS,SRES,GRI - Bucks County & Philadel

You always provide good information about your housing market. Thank you for sharing 

Jan 21, 2018 02:38 AM
Lottie Kendall
Compass - San Francisco, CA
Helping make your real estate dreams a reality

Good morning, Gita Bantwal - looking at market trends is essential to helping buyers and sellers understand what's going on. Wishing you a good day and productive, happy week to come.

Jan 21, 2018 07:38 AM