Lock Watch for the Week of 2/5/2018

Lock Watch for the Week of 2/5/2018

The "Lock Watch" began, humbly enough, as an experiment to alert RPM Mortgage's Top 20 loan officers about economic events that could incite volatility in the mortgage market throughout any week.  We didn't want to get blindsided by a bond market sell-off or potential rally that could have significant impact on the rates available to our clients, so early Monday I tried to outline the week ahead with an abbreviated calendar like the one you see below.  Note that I am not an analyst --- hell, I barely made it out of high school.  If you ask me for a prediction on rates, I probably will not give you one, and if I do, you ought to know it's as suspect as the next.  The Lock Watch is about awareness, not prescience, OK?  Over time, the emails I sent out were greeted with much appreciation and I figured, "Why not roll it out online?"  That's what I'm doing here.  So please keep the feedback coming!

Volatility-O-Meter:  Mid-to-High.  After Friday's (2/2/18) stock market sell-off and the political backdrop, there's no way I can say volatility is less than "high" this week.  The interesting dynamic I saw Friday is that higher rates could start pulling money out of the stock market as bond yields become more attractive.  

All times are Pacific:

Mon, 2/5:       ISM Non-Mfg Index (7am).

Tues, 2/6:       International Trade (5:30am), JOLTS (7am), 3-Yr Note Auction (10am).

Weds, 2/7:     10-Yr Note Auction (10am).

Thurs, 2/8:    Jobless Claims (5:30am), 30-Yr Bond Auction (10am).

Fri, 2/9:         Quiet.

10-Year Treasury History

2.85%     Today

2.70%     One Week Ago

2.47%     One Month Ago

2.42%     One Year Ago

Oscar Gamble

Oscar Gamble died last week at the age of 68, though most of you probably never heard of him, much less his passing. Oscar played pro baseball mostly in the '70's but history will likely remember him most for the huge afro he unsuccessfully tried to contain under the hideous baseball caps of the prehisteroid era (yes, I just made that word up and think it's quite funny...).  I read a few of the tributes to Oscar and several things stuck out.

1. He was born to sharecropper parents in 1949.
2. He was recruited by legendary Negro league scout, Buck O'Neil. Buck saw him play a high school baseball game and, correctly and immediately, identified the bat speed and athletic characteristics of a future major leaguer, even though he was looking at a present day dirt-poor kid from the Alabama backwoods.
3. Oscar's teammates, across his career in Chicago, New York, Cleveland, etc., loved him. Uniformly, they recall he always had a smile on his face.
4. The press loved him too. Once asked to characterize the craziness of George Steinbrenner's Yankee's clubhouse he said, "They don't think it be like it is but it do."
5. Gamble hit exactly 200 career home runs, but more than 10% of them came off of Hall of Fame pitchers. The opposition could never count the dude out and he had the ability to hurt any pitcher with his power. Gamble's optimism and self-confidence were summed up in another dinger:  "When I step up to the plate, I'm in scoring position."

Take me out to the ballgame, 

Robert J. Spinosa
Vice President of Mortgage Lending

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