January 2018 Market Report by TREB
The Toronto Real Estate Board released its report on January 2018 today. TREB no longer provides a mid-month report.
GTA REALTORS® Release January Stats TORONTO, ONTARIO,
February 6, 2018 –
Toronto Real Estate Board President Tim Syrianos announced that Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® reported 4,019 residential transactions through TREB’s MLS® System in January 2018.
This result was down by 22 per cent compared to a record 5,155 sales reported in January 2017. The number of new listings entered into TREB’s MLS® System amounted to 8,585 – a 17.4 per cent increase compared to 7,314 new listings entered in January 2017.
However, it is important to note that the level of new listings was the second lowest for the month of January in the past 10 years.
“TREB released its outlook for 2018 on January 30th. The outlook pointed to a slower start to 2018, especially compared to the record-setting pace experienced a year ago. As we move through the year, expect the pace of home sales to pick up, as the psychological impact of the Fair Housing Plan starts to wane and home buyers find their footing relative to the new OSFI mandated stress test for mortgage approvals through federally regulated lenders,”
said Mr. Syrianos.
The MLS® Home Price Index Composite Benchmark was up by 5.2 per cent year-over-year. This annual rate of growth was driven by the condominium apartment market segment, with double digit annual growth versus the single-family segment, with prices essentially flat compared to last year.
The overall average selling price was down by 4.1 per cent year-over-year to $736,783. This decline was weighted toward the detached segment of the market. In the City of Toronto, the average selling price was up for all home types except for detached houses.
“It is not surprising that home prices in some market segments were flat to down in January compared to last year. At this time last year, we were in the midst of a housing price spike driven by exceptionally low inventory in the marketplace. It is likely that market conditions will support a return to positive price growth for many home types in the second half of 2018. The condominium apartment segment will be the driver of this price growth,”
said Jason Mercer, TREB’s Director of Market Analysis.
COMMENT
2017
Here are the average sale prices as reported by TREB for single family homes of all types in the GTA, including houses, townhouses and apartments:
Restated Original Month
$768,351 $768,351 January
$876,363 $876,363 February
$915,268 $915,353 March
$918,170 $918,138 April
$862,149 $862,109 May
$791,964 $791,949 June
$745,896 $745,909 July
$731,622 $731,606 August
$774,961 $774,946 September
$780,630 $780,643 October
$762,087 $761,985 November
$735,088 $735,021 December
2018
$736,783 January 31st
The market started out last year at $730,124. That‘s the 1 January 2017 number (actually 31 December 2016).
While I have reproduced the current monthly numbers for 2017, you will notice a slight change from the numbers originally published. All the numbers are slightly off with the exception of January and February. That’s because deals fall through and then may be entered after in a subsequent month. It’s not statistically significant but if you are keeping track then it’s enough to throw your calculations off.
So, there’s a slight rise in value from the beginning of 2017, $730,124 to $736,783 to the end of January of $6,659 (13 months) and a decline from the end of January 2017, $768,351 to now $736,783 of $31,568 (12 months).
The current number approximates the August 2017 and December 2017 numbers, as well as the January 1st 2017 number. This is all very interesting. The price has basically held firm since the end of 2016.
The real difficulty we are going to have going forward is to come up with market predictions while using the Spring 2017 numbers which will turn out to be an aberration.
In January 2017, there was a shortage of listings and pent up demand from 2016. Remember the market peaked that year in November which was very unusual. Mostly, you would have expected a May peak to the market.
In 2017, the market peaked early, namely April and then effectively went back to normal. The April number was just 25% too high! A good many deals did not close and those who gambled somewhat with the market got stung.
However, it looks like we now have some stability which is generally good for the marketplace.
Kindly note that detached houses went down in value somewhat while condominium apartments went up. Really, that’s just “catchup”. Previously, it had been the detached sector which escalated. It’s not that detached are no loner “sought after” or “desirable”; they are simply “unaffordable”.
Brian Madigan LL.B., Broker
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