Two articles at the Wall Street Journal Online illustrate, once again, why the three rules of real estate are location, location, location. Holman W. Jenkins, Jr. writes an interesting op-ed on why the proposed mortgage bailout working its way through Congress will not actually solve the foreclosure problem.
Mr. Jenkins theorizes that the foreclosure crisis was created by speculation on the "drive ‘til you qualify" method of home buying. Most of the foreclosures in this country are concentrated in just a few areas, with the biggest grouping running from Sacramento to Las Vegas and Phoenix. His idea is that speculators bought up homes in developments on current or planned major commuter routes. As prices closer to urban centers continued to rise, buyers would continue to move further from these centers in search of affordable real estate, thereby driving up prices in these exurbs and providing a tidy return on investment.
A lot of these developments are oceans of cookie cutter development, with little recreation, infrastructure, lifestyle, or sense of place. These days, even bargain hunters aren't looking to buy something with no inherent value. An investor that knows their property has very little value isn't going to jump through hoops to continue paying the lender, even if they get a better deal on the mortgage.
Should Mr. Jenkins' prognostication hold true, we'll have a bigger problem on our hands. What in the world do you do with thousands of deserted and deteriorating homes sitting out in the middle of nowhere?
On the other end of the spectrum, Jeff D. Opdyke reports that major downtowns are weathering the storm much better. He offers a quick dissection of markets in Chicago, New York, Boston, San Francisco, and Los Angeles. The overall assessment of the markets? Slower than a couple of years ago, sure, but not abandoned in a field. High end real estate continues to rise ($10 million for a San Francisco condo, anyone?). The very best downtown locations are strong, but if you're on the wrong street, or worse yet, more than a few steps from downtown in a surrounding neighborhood, it's touch and go. Again, not perfect, but not mired in foreclosures either.
Both of these articles got me thinking about how the market is playing out in Durham, NC right now. While we don't have anyone commuting for hours just to afford a home, Durham has become even more about location recently when it comes to home sales. Our city has morphed over the past couple of decades into a new geographic identity. Rather than having one central geographic point where commerce, entertainment, and community all mesh, we have several. The downtown/Duke corridor, the Southpoint area, and RTP all feed different parts of our collective soul, and each has developed a sense of place that has supported home values.
The neighborhoods around Duke and downtown (especially those providing equal access to both) are continuing to hold value. But I also draw a conclusion from Mr. Opdyke's piece - there's downtown, and then there's downtown. The west side of downtown, encompassing West Village and Brightleaf, and extending to Duke's East Campus, is our version of downtown Chicago's Gold Coast. A great example of how the real estate market has developed is the Bullington Warehouse condominium on N. Duke Street. It was developed in the 1980's, before construction prices went through the roof. It's no frills construction has enjoyed gradual upfit over time by condo owners, meaning that a pretty nice condo can still be had for under $300,000 - and the seller can actually turn a profit. You can eat, drink, and be merry to your heart's content just by crossing the street. Or marvel at an office of the largest advertising firm in the world. Or walk by the building holding one of the largest Porsche collections in the country. Bullington Warehouse condos are selling fast and for at or near asking price. West Village is almost always completely leased up at higher than market rents. In short, this is downtown Durham's location.
A twin corridor is taking shape on the east side of downtown, traveling roughly along Mangum Street. As Kevin Davis reports on Bull City Rising, the area is taking shape, albeit at a slower pace than was expected a couple of years ago. It appears to have the makings of a location, with some great new restaurants, the opening of the Durham Performing Arts Center, and planned residential development. If the Wall Street Journal musings hold, it will it need to mature naturally over the years as the Brightleaf area has done, developing its roots and sense of place, and proving its value to the community. Forcing development to fill some ethereal "need" won't do it (sure, we can sell you an affordable condo - you know, people in Manhattan would kill to get their hands on 600 square feet for $200,000!).
The second market driver in Durham is the Southpoint area. Since opening in the early part of the decade, The Streets at Southpoint mall has served as a hub for residential and commercial development in the southern part of the county. This year, this area has been one of the two most active real estate markets in Durham, according to the Triangle Multiple Listing Service. While downtown has grown and evolved over many years into its current incarnation, Southpoint was a seemingly overnight sensation based on a different theory of location. The mall was built in a prime but underutilized location - it sits just off a major Triangle thoroughfare, I-40. This highway and its offshoots will eventually connect you to almost everywhere in the Triangle and points beyond.
As a marketing assistant for Belk during Southpoint's grand opening, I got the full tour and story. Apparently, the developers had looked at downtown Durham and its history. They knew that downtown had once been home to the best department stores and restaurants in town, with crowds filling the streets for holiday shopping and nights on the town. They wanted to bring that feeling to the Southpoint area, and designed a retail destination that incorporated some of the feel and look of Durham's tobacco town heritage. Their idea created a location in southern Durham, one not quite matched by the more generic Triangle Town Center (music will ensue if you click this link) built around the same time in Raleigh. TTC has all the stores, but not the sense of place that Southpoint has.
The up and coming corridor is the Hwy 70/98 area leading into Research Triangle Park. RTP is a major driver of employment for the entire Triangle. Its zoning has always made residential development (and public transportation) there a non-starter. As commuting to RTP from Wake County becomes more onerous, people are looking at the Durham County side of the line, and developers have taken notice. Once Brier Creek settled in, bringing restaurants, entertainment, and grocery stores, the sense of place was developed for Durham to RTP commuters.
This corridor is the other most active real estate market in Durham this year. The east part of Durham bordering Wake County is anticipated to be the fastest growing Durham submarket over the next decade.
So here in Durham we have a truly diverse, multi-node city. One hub founded on history. One founded on history removed to a new location (and with The Cheesecake Factory!). One founded on the draw of jobs and shopping in another county - go figure.
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