User5919_1_t Manhattan Beach CA/ e-PRO..... Kaye Thomas...
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On those mornings when I have way too much coffee my brain seems to turn in strange directions. Today is no exception. Inventory has really declined in Manhattan Beach  and in fact in all the Beach Cities.  So it occurred to me that maybe the reason inventory has gone down and people appear to be  buying is that there have been almost no negative articles on real estate in the last few months.  In fact when looking at the archives for our local South Bay newspaper.. The Daily Breeze the last really negative feature was on October 27, 2006.  In 45 articles on California home prices in The LA Times the last dismal  real estate sucks article  was October 12, 2006. 

So I'm thinking that perhaps people pay a whole lot more attention to media news then we think and especially to negative media news.  The reason for this great epiphany is that Wednesday The Daily Breeze  ran a headline on how prices have dropped in the Beach Cities.  It was one of thoses the Sky is Falling pieces. It was the first one I had seen in a long time. I had two clients ask me about the article so I discussed it in my other blog. The basic facts were almost true.  This morning another article titled More First Timers Locked Out  is featured.  I find it troubling that just as the market seems to be settling down negative publicity is once again on the move.  

 We may be making a major error if we dismiss the influence these articles have on the general public.  The LA Times  might not be able to find a buyer but The Daily Breeze seems to be doing just fine.   The Beach Reporter  serves not only as the local community throw-a-way but as a major source of real estate listings for Manhattan Beach and the other Beach Cities..Hermosa, Redondo and El Segundo.  The paper comes out once a week on Thursday and by Friday morning you will be hard pressed to find a copy.  It is the Holy Grail of Real Estate listings for most buyers and sellers in our area. 

I know other cities have similar publications that write about real estate prices and trends. In the Active Rain archives there have been 97 blogs mentioning newspapers.  Most of them are aimed at advertising and how the internet will completely take the place of print advertising. This assumes that the real estate market is nothing more then a giant classified ad for buying and selling homes and I think that's wrong.  Almost none of the articles mention the influence of newspapers in local markets.  I think this is a big mistake.  While many people no longer purchase a newspaper it doesn't mean they don't read them especially the little local papers.

 

Walk into a Hospital waiting room, Carwash, Laundromat, Hotel Lobby or other public gathering place and they aren't giving away laptops or i-pods to catch up on the local news.  I think we often get so caught up by our view of the internet and how technology seems to be driving our business that we forget that not everyone is wired nor do they care to be.  They use the internet to read e-mail, maybe shop for an airline ticket or send a gift  from Target.  They may look at Realtor.com or search for  Manhattan Beach Real Estate but they are still leery about giving out their real names and phone numbers.    

Now it may just be a coincidence the our real estate market improved when the negative headlines declined but it is certainly something I'm going to watch a bit more closely.  As I said... some mornings I have way too much coffee.

All content copyright © 2007   Kaye Thomas  

 

20 Comments on Don't be So Quick to Dismiss the Local Newspaper.

I have made the same observation.  I believe the local papers sometimes create perception, which becomes reality.

03/03/2007 05:26 PM by Randy L. Prothero - Hawaii REALTORĀ® (Century 21 Liberty Homes)


Randy: Glad to know I'm not the only one who is noticing this and that it is happening in other communities.  Real estate is local and the internet will not change that aspect of our business.

03/03/2007 05:36 PM by Manhattan Beach CA/ e-PRO..... Kaye Thomas... (Real Estate West)


Our locals definitely like to believe what they read in the paper.  The local papers cause quite a stir.  When I recently announced my decision to pursue real estate full time after months of people telling me that it wasn't such a good idea the first comment was hey the paper says the market is picking up again.  Sometimes I think if agents are susceptible to buy into it as well when looking for some explanation about what's going on in the market. 

03/03/2007 05:55 PM by Brian Brumpton, Boise Idaho Real Estate Professional. (Keller Williams Realty of Boise)


On the east coast there have been a lot of "bubble" scare articles.  It definately has had an influence on the public's perception.  It is difficult for the public to get a true picture of what is happening because often bad news seems to be of more interest to the press than any good news!  Some realtor groups are able to get some articles in the paper or have been guests on the radio, but it is difficult to get a balance viewpoint out to the public.

03/03/2007 05:59 PM by Joan Whitebook, ABR,e-Pro,CEBA Southern New Hampshire (Buyer's Option Realty Services)


I have called out a local reporter in our area on my blog at www.SellShocked.com He speaks in general, national and half truths. I do believe it scares buyers and sellers and even some agents that don't take it upon themselves to be informed.

03/03/2007 06:50 PM by Darin Persinger (More Listings | More Sales)


Brian-You are right.. agents often go along with the message instead of fighting it head on..

Joan-Ah yes the Bubble syndrome..  which is still pushed by the Bubble Bloggers.. It seems to have become more of a cult then a real economic phenomena

Darin-These are usually the same guys who accuse REALTORS® of being blind to market forces and refusing to face a market in chaos while they run around screaming that the sky is falling.  They usually fail to take the entire economic picture into effect .

03/03/2007 07:19 PM by Manhattan Beach CA/ e-PRO..... Kaye Thomas... (Real Estate West)


The 2 articles mentioned are in direct relation to statistics posted by the CAR. The CAR releases the Quarterly "Affordability" Index and an article comes out regarding it. If affordability improves they say it, if affordability goes down, they say it. The data drives the article, not some RE bias. Papers release RE articles in California on very predicatable patterns, 1) The day after the NAR existing home sales data is release 2) The day after the CAR monthly release 3) The day after the Dataquick report comes out. 4) The day after the Census new home sales report comes out 5) The day after the quarterly summaries of sales and afforability by NAR and CAR. If the numbers go up, they say they are up, if the numbers are down they say they are down. The realtor groups have always controlled the data and the conversation (fixating people on median price, instead of volume or inventory), your issue should be with the trade group. If you go back historically the articles during the boom times were very positive. As things come off their highs, the articles reflect that.

03/03/2007 08:24 PM by Mikey


The difficulty I'm having right now is that, given the climate forecast by the papers re. real estate, why do I want to pay them money to advertise properties, when the internet is available?  I'll do a small ad, but  large company advertising amidst the gloom?  I don't think so...

03/03/2007 09:03 PM by Options Realty


Mike: That's true.. but the headlines used are sometimes deceiving.. which is how they sell papers.. often you have to wade through to find.. that as in this case the prices they compared were  January 2006 to January  2007 not for  the entire year.  It makes a difference when you look at the monthly figures for the whole year and see they were all over the place.  If you check my other blog  and my monthly Market Conditions report for Realty Times you will see that I tend to include lots of data: current inventory, prices, areas, number of pendings and sold information.  I agree that  I am not as accurate as CAR numbers  because I use information from my local MLS and CAR has all figures from closed transactions....However CAR doesn't show current inventory or pendings they only deal with properties that close escrow.  It's not the data I question.. but the headlines..

Laurie: Much depends on where you live and what your clients expect.  In my area you advertise in the Beach Reporter.. which actually is OK as they tend to like us.. the rest I only do minimal advertising in them

03/03/2007 09:48 PM by Manhattan Beach CA/ e-PRO..... Kaye Thomas... (Real Estate West)


The media certainly has an influence. My husband hears a lot at work about 'the bubble', or 'why did your wife get into real estate now?' The perception is that it's a bad time to buy or sell, but only 48 less homes sold in 2006 than 2005 in our market. 

03/03/2007 10:40 PM by Debbie Malone, Realtor (R), Lynchburg, Smith Mountain Lake, VA (RE/MAX 1st Olympic)


Kaye,

I am an avid local paper reader! I absolutely love them. The news is relevant to what is happening in my neighborhood, I stay cuaght up on local social, political, educational, and commercial developments, and I can't imagine that others don't feel exactly the same way! While larger papers such as the LA Times may be suffering from lower readership, I can't see that happening in the long realm with small town papers. I don't believe that any economies of scale will ever make it likely that other methods will squeeze out this local media medium. But then, I won't hold my breathe! Local papers are powerful because of this dynamic. Because it is a local source, it carries greater weight with the reader than a broader paper. I love your blog on this and think your observation is very insightful! 

03/03/2007 11:18 PM by Sara Washburn (Realty Executives Brio)


Debbie: I think people really want to believe that the rise  in home prices was a fluke and they will drop to 1990 levels.  I've been doing this a long time and just don't remember so many people being so bitter and nasty about the market... envious.. pissed off... angry.. but never so venomous.. I suspect it has more to do with overall economic conditions then individual real estate markets.  While the economy is still technically OK there are a lot of people who have lost their jobs or been displaced by others who will work for less. 

03/03/2007 11:20 PM by Manhattan Beach CA/ e-PRO..... Kaye Thomas... (Real Estate West)


Sara- I also love the local paper.. it is the first thing I turn to in the morning to see what I can find for a blog piece on my other blog.. Real estate continues to be local and as influential as the internet is... there will always be a place for the community paper.. Thank you for your kind words

03/03/2007 11:28 PM by Manhattan Beach CA/ e-PRO..... Kaye Thomas... (Real Estate West)


I gave up reading the paper a long time ago, I am glad to hear they are lightening up.  Thanks for sharing Kaye. 


03/04/2007 12:24 AM by Laurie Manny, Long Beach Homes - Long Beach Condos (Main Street Realtors Long Beach California)


Newspapers are certainly a solid source of information. Our company has been trying to trend away from newspaper advertising but fortunately the agents are not easily going along with the corporate desire. In my opinion there is still a large segment of the listing population that does not use a computer for every decision.

03/04/2007 03:45 AM by Dan Cummings - Connecticut's Running Realtor (Raveis Real Estate)


Laurie- Morning coffee and the newspaper.. I just can't give either up..

Dan- I think you are correct .. there are more people then we realize who are not using the internet for their news.. those of us who use the internet on a daily basis assume that everyone else does... especially those in the under 40 generation.. but it's not true.. as I noted it's the little local throw-a-way that is the real estate bible in my community

03/04/2007 10:56 AM by Manhattan Beach CA/ e-PRO..... Kaye Thomas... (Real Estate West)


The media here is ENTIRELY doom-and-gloom - and we feel it!  They skew the stats to make it a 'bigger story', and we spend a lot of time difusing it.....

Really, we are turning around - we're just not going up 56% a year, like we did in '05, so everyone thinks the sky is falling!  (sigh)

SK

03/04/2007 11:39 AM by Adam Tarr ABR,ePro, Assoc. Broker (RE/MAX Excalibur)


SK:  We see the same here.. which may be why the absence of negative news for the last few months was so noticeable.. Of course prices have dropped.. and yes they do fluctuate from month to month but the bottom didn't fall out of the market and it isn't likely to either.. unless there is a major national economic disaster.. but that doesn't sell newspapers.. However unlike the other forms of the media you can usually find the disclaimer to the headline somewhere at the bottom of the article..

03/04/2007 02:55 PM by Manhattan Beach CA/ e-PRO..... Kaye Thomas... (Real Estate West)


I still love to sit and read the paper with a cup of tea.  However, it is true that people are online and most every home has the internet at hand.  I still love reading the newspapter.

 

Patricia Aulson/REALTOR/SEACOAST NH & ME 

03/04/2007 03:11 PM by


Patricia: You are not alone.. and that's what we sometimes forget.. even avid internet users still read the newspaper..

03/04/2007 03:19 PM by Manhattan Beach CA/ e-PRO..... Kaye Thomas... (Real Estate West)


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Real Estate Agent: Manhattan Beach CA/ e-PRO..... Kaye Thomas...  (Real Estate West)
Manhattan Beach CA/ e-PRO..... Kaye Thomas...
Manhattan Beach, CA
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Real Estate West

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My thoughts on everything from Real Estate in the South Bay beach cities of Manhattan Beach, Hermosa Beach, Redondo Beach and El Segundo California to anything else that strikes my fancy.


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