The last few months have been tough for most of us in the real estate industry, to say the least. Although our company has weathered the storm quite well and no one has gone hungry, we're far from having anywhere close to an average year so far this year, or last year for that matter. It seems like day after day, there's more bad news about what's going on and the prospects for a turnaround. However, lately it seems to me like there have been a few rays of hope, and more good news than I can remember in quite some time.
One of the ways I stay plugged in is attending a monthly Mentoring Club here in Southern California for real estate investors. One of the things I love about the group is that they maintain such a positive outlook while not seeing things that aren't there. They are very positive about the outlook over the next few years and believe we're just on the cusp of a turnaround. Some of their examples:
The Housing Crisis is Over - no less an authority than the Wall Street Journal thinks that the housing crisis is over. They're not predicting an immediate turnaround or double-digit growth for the remainder of the year by any means, but they do think we've hit the bottom. Some very good information and stats in the article.
Mortgage Rates Drift Lower - as most of us probably know, mortgage rates have been drifting lower and are still at 30-year lows. What's interesting about this article is in the 6th and 7th paragraphs - inflation is expected to slow and the Fed remains poised to make sure there's sufficient liquidity in the markets.
Timing May Be Right for Real Estate Investors - one of our main sources of business is real estate investors, and right now a lot of them are seeing great values in their neighborhoods, even here in California, and that hasn't been the case for quite some time. Many are piling back into the market and see things beginning to hit bottom.
5 Cities with Biggest Decline in Home Values - although the focus of this article is on the drop in house values, what's interesting is to look at the overall changes. Real estate is a "get rich slow" scheme, and let's apply that to a longer-term timeframe on 3 of the cities mentioned in the article. Las Vegas - down 24.5% from the peak, but up 135% over the last 5 years for an aggregate increase of 77.4%. Phoenix - down 24% from the peak, but up 127% over the last 5 years for an aggregate increase of 72.5%. San Diego - down 24% from the peak, but up 150% over the last 5 years for an aggregate increase of 90%.
As you can see, it's not all doom and gloom and my feeling is that the 2nd part of this year will be better than we've seen in the last 3-4 years! For more information on the Investor Mentoring Club, you can call or email me or check out Wow Events.
My guess is we are going to drift slowly down hill for the rest of the year and the bottom will be somewhere in the late fall or winter.
I love predictions. They are rarely right but really interesting to look back on.