THE GREAT DECEPTION

 

The world is not ending.  Birds are chirping. The sun rises and sets everyday...just like normal.  Things are not as bad as you hear.

 

In fact, this country is doing very well. The USA is doing much, much better than you would think from listening to the news.

 

You have likely heard: This is the worst economy since the Great Depression!  What incredible garbage!

 

Just to put things in perspective, here is how today's market compares to the Great Depression.

 

I consulted an article from Dr. Gary Wolfram called: Econ 101: The Great Depression from the

Business and Media Institute.

 

Here are some important highlights:

 

The Great Depression (1929-33) The deepest part of it

2008 Sub Prime Crisis

Unemployment

24.75% at peak

5.0%

Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

US lost 29% of GDP

World lost 50% of GDP

GDP grew 0.6%

Dow Jones Average

Down 85%

Down 11%

Depositor banks lost to closure

10,000 of 25,000 (40%)

6 of 8,507 

(7/100th of 1%)

FDIC-Insured Institutions only

(doesn't include all banks)

 

So, NO, this is NOT the GREAT DEPRESSION.  It IS, however, the "GREAT DECEPTION" from the media.

 

How bad is this "GREAT DECEPTION"?  Well, do you remember hearing about how Colorado was #1 for foreclosures in 2007, then, wound up at #5 for the year?  

 

Well, Colorado had (and still does) have an unusual procedure for foreclosures.  In 2007, a home could be in foreclosure multiple times and cured multiple times. So, a home could be counted multiple times.  Based on the statistics from the Colorado Public Trustees Association, we are over counted by 37%. YES!  Over 1/3 overstated!! 

 

Here are the stats:

 

 

RealtyTrac Statistics

The "REALITY TRACK"

Foreclosures (Public Trustee Sales in Colorado)

39,403

 

Source: RealtyTrac

(Click here for source)

24,929 (Actual Sales)

 

Total opened: 39,607

Total RealtyTrac Overstatement: 37% or 14,678

Source: Colorado Public Trustees Website

National Rank

(Assumes RealtyTrac's numbers are correct for other states)

5

15 

 

(Based on using the Colorado Public Trustee's Websites' Data, not RealtyTrac's)

 

 

However, I bet you thought that we were #1, didn't you?  I did, too, until I did the research.  Knowledge is power in today's market.

 
This post has been included in Colorado Information

2 Comments on The Media -- They Just Get it Wrong...Part 2 of the 5 Part Series

MAY
25
2008
313,581 Points 1 Featured Post Outside Blog

Michael, thanks for the perspective.  I look at this economic time more like the early 1980's without the high inflation, the banks that we have lost I would compare to the savings and loan fiascos, certainly nothing comparable to the Great Depression.

1:07am • #1

Hey Michael!  I don't really want to get my mind going on the media, after all, it's late at night and I'm trying to get myself ready for bed!  Unfortunately the aspects that make our country great are also the aspects that will some day destroy us.  The media had one thing in mind when they implemented the destruction of the housing market.  They had decided the Democrats had to capture the Congress in 06.  The way to do this of course was to destroy the economy.  If they could destroy the housing market, they would have a major negative affect on our entire economy.  Now that we are getting closer to the 08 election, the media continues to tell the consumer not to buy homes quite yet.  It's still going down.  In reality, in 05 when they started their rampage, the market was starting to pull back a little bit.  This would be the natural progression of our Real Estate curve.  Once they realized they were going a great job of destroying things, they increased their negativity. 

The media is extremely powerful and if you are told again and again that the market is crashing, eventually the average American will listen.  I'm sure we will still be hearing how bad the market is until after the election.  My guess is in January of 09 we are going to see the media touting how the housing market has leveled and thanks to our new Democrat President things are looking up.  It's very scary how much power they have.  With that said, it's up to us, the consumer, the Real Estate Agents, that must educate the buyer on the truth.  In fact, I would imagine if we could get Realtors to focus on how to generate business and be positive, the market would correct itself quicker.  Most Agents I talk to are talking gloom and doom.  Actually, I don't think they have seen gloom and doom if they think this is it!

Mitch Ribak
11:06pm • #2

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Michael Clarkson

Littleton, CO

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Mile High Home Hunter Realty

Address: PO Box 620519, Littleton, CO, 80162

Office Phone: (303) 317-2478

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Michael Clarkson is one of Denver's highest profile brokers. He’s been featured in Realtor® Magazine three separate times, Denver Post, Denver Business Journal, KOA Radio, KHOW Radio, and the Colorado Radio Network. Michael is a licensed Managing Broker in Colorado and a GRI (Graduate Realtor® Institute). He is also a partner in the firm, Cash Path Real Estate LLC. Michael has an MBA in International Business from Regis University in Denver.


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