THE GREAT DECEPTION
The world is not ending. Birds are chirping. The sun rises and sets everyday...just like normal. Things are not as bad as you hear.
In fact, this country is doing very well. The USA is doing much, much better than you would think from listening to the news.
You have likely heard: This is the worst economy since the Great Depression! What incredible garbage!
Just to put things in perspective, here is how today's market compares to the Great Depression.
I consulted an article from Dr. Gary Wolfram called: Econ 101: The Great Depression from the
Business and Media Institute.
Here are some important highlights:
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The Great Depression (1929-33) The deepest part of it
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2008 Sub Prime Crisis
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Unemployment
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24.75% at peak
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5.0%
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Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
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US lost 29% of GDP
World lost 50% of GDP
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GDP grew 0.6%
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Dow Jones Average
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Down 85%
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Down 11%
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Depositor banks lost to closure
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10,000 of 25,000 (40%)
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6 of 8,507
(7/100th of 1%)
FDIC-Insured Institutions only
(doesn't include all banks)
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So, NO, this is NOT the GREAT DEPRESSION. It IS, however, the "GREAT DECEPTION" from the media.
How bad is this "GREAT DECEPTION"? Well, do you remember hearing about how Colorado was #1 for foreclosures in 2007, then, wound up at #5 for the year?
Well, Colorado had (and still does) have an unusual procedure for foreclosures. In 2007, a home could be in foreclosure multiple times and cured multiple times. So, a home could be counted multiple times. Based on the statistics from the Colorado Public Trustees Association, we are over counted by 37%. YES! Over 1/3 overstated!!
Here are the stats:
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RealtyTrac Statistics
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The "REALITY TRACK"
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Foreclosures (Public Trustee Sales in Colorado)
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39,403
Source: RealtyTrac
(Click here for source)
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24,929 (Actual Sales)
Total opened: 39,607
Total RealtyTrac Overstatement: 37% or 14,678
Source: Colorado Public Trustees Website
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National Rank
(Assumes RealtyTrac's numbers are correct for other states)
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5
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15
(Based on using the Colorado Public Trustee's Websites' Data, not RealtyTrac's)
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However, I bet you thought that we were #1, didn't you? I did, too, until I did the research. Knowledge is power in today's market.
Michael, thanks for the perspective. I look at this economic time more like the early 1980's without the high inflation, the banks that we have lost I would compare to the savings and loan fiascos, certainly nothing comparable to the Great Depression.