Whenever I speak to my Kohala Coast, Hawaii Island prospective buyers, they ask "how's the market?" I tell them it depends. Are you asking about the number of unit sales, or median sales price? Are you asking about all of South Kohala, or only the luxury resort market segment? For this discussion, luxury is defined as homes and condos above $925,000. To my knowledge that's the least expensive unit within a tennis and golf resort with a nice ocean view. Condos currently offered under this price have peek-a-boo views at best, and most have no view at all (with the occasional exception of course). Since it was a quiet day at the office, I looked at recent MLS sales statistics for today's snapshot of the local resort market.
Like a lot of places, Kohala Coast real estate sales were hot and inventory was extremely limited through late 2005. Then the number of annual unit sales began to slide. But, as inventory and selection have improved, the median South Kohala sales prices have continued to rise. Because this is counter intuitive, each month I look at the statistics to try to accurately follow and interpret the trend. Through the first quarter of 2008 prices here continue to rise.
Here are the unit sales numbers and median sales price percentage increases and decreases for all improved residential real estate in South Kohala over the years beginning with 1998:
1998 unit sales increased 19% over 1997; the median sales price decreased 4%
1999 unit sales increased less than 1% over 1998; the median sales price increased 7%
2000 unit sales increased 16% over 1999; the median sales price increased 4%
2001 unit sales increased 1% over 2000; the median sales price increased 1%
2002 unit sales increased 20% over 2001; the median sales price increased 14%
2003 unit sales increased 27% over 2002; the median sales price increased 18%
2004 unit sales increased 32% over 2003; the median sales price increased 44%
2005 unit sales decreased 5% over 2004; the median sales price increased 29%
2006 unit sales decreased 12% over 2005; the median sales price increased 5%
2007 unit sales decreased 35% over 2006; the median sales price increased 3%
2008 first quarter unit sales decreased 13% over 2007; the median sales price increased 3%
Here are the unit sales numbers and median sales price percentage increases and decreases for luxury resort improved residential real estate in South Kohala over the years beginning with 1998:
1998 unit sales increased 41% over 1997; the median sales price increased 17%
1999 unit sales increased 21% over 1998; the median sales price increased 13%
2000 unit sales decreased 4% over 1999; the median sales price increased 33%
2001 unit sales decreased 12% over 2000; the median sales price increased 14%
2002 unit sales increased 60% over 2001; the median sales price decreased 8%
2003 unit sales decreased 8% over 2002; the median sales price decreased 29%
2004 unit sales increased 86% over 2003; the median sales price increased 23%
2005 unit sales increased 39% over 2004; the median sales price increased 3%
2006 unit sales increased 38% over 2005; the median sales price increased 9%
2007 unit sales decreased 15% over 2006; the median sales price decreased 9%
2008 first quarter unit sales decreased 24% over 2007; the median sales price increased 40%
Although the all South Kohala improved property absorption rate is currently 18 months, prices continue to trend up. While the absorption rate for luxury resort properties is currently a staggering 24 months, the first quarter of 2008 saw a 40% increase in price over the same period in 2007.
If you would like a similar analysis for a particular South Kohala neighborhood, let me know.
Comments(1)