The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported last week that it is forecasting $1.24 trillion in purchase mortgage originations in 2019, a 4.2% gain from 2018. In the refinance arena, the MBA predicts a 12.4% decline in 2019 to $395 billion. For 2019, the MBA sees total originations to decrease to $1.63 trillion from $1.64 trillion this year. The MBA expects home purchase originations to increase each year from 2019-2021 and should continue to increase past the forecast horizon, as more millennials look to purchase homes.
There are no economic reports due for release today. The markets are looking ahead to Friday's release of Q3 2018 first read on Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which is expected to rise 3.3%. That would be down from the frothy 4.2% recorded in Q2, however, when coupled with the past few quarters, it will be running at 3.0% year over year, a figure we have not seen for some time. GDP is the value of the goods and services produced in the United States. The growth rate of GDP is the most popular indicator of the nation's overall economic health.
U.S. consumers are expected to spend $119.99 billion online during the holiday shopping season in 2018, which unofficially begins on November 1 and ends on December 31. That would be a 15.5% gain from the $103.88 billion online sales in 2017. A few of the catalysts driving online sales this year is sky-high consumer confidence and the fact that more and more consumers are shopping online for the holiday season. Total retail sales are expected to rise 5.5% in 2018 from 2017 to $719.09 billion.
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