Lock Watch for the Week of 12/10/2018
Volatility-O-Meter:
Key inflation reports mid-week will help set the direction. Recent market (stock and bond) volatility has largely played into a narrative that the Fed may reduce number of forthcoming rate increases, but if inflation comes in hot, I expect a lot more turmoil.
Economicalendar (all times are Pacific):
Mon, 12/10: JOLTS (7am).
Tues, 12/11: PPI (5:30am) and 3-Year Note Auction (10am).
Weds, 12/12: CPI (5:30am) and 10-Year Note Auction (10am). Treasury Budget (11am).
Thurs, 12/13: Jobless Claims and Import/Export Prices (5:30am). Fed Balance Sheet (1:30pm).
Fri, 12/14: Retail Sales (5:30am) and Industrial Production (6:15am). Business Inventories (7am).
10-Year Treasury History
2.86% Today's Open
3.02% One Week Ago
3.19% One Month Ago
2.39% One Year Ago
Zanzibar
Twenty-three miles off the coast of Tanzania, Africa, you will find the island of Zanzibar. If you're flying in from Dar es-Salaam or some other point, you're likely on vacation and you'll rejoice at the sight of turquoise waters giving way to the white sand and lush palm foliage of the archipelago. When you land, the tropical air of the equatorial, Indian Ocean climate will take the edge of the third-world hustle of the airport and surrounding streets.
There's quite a lot to see and do on the small island of a million inhabitants and for westerners it's very much a culture shock too --- the island has historically been a crossroads for traders, pirates, conquerors and religions and it's still very easy to get the vibe, and see the scars, of each. Today, the island boasts resorts for beachgoers, jungle tours where you can see the massive jackfruit growing on trees, Freddie Mercury's birthplace (no joke), palm spiders as large as your hand (also no joke...), and disturbingly --- like tragically so --- caves that were used in the slave trade. On this last point, our tour group stopped at one in particular and we were given a chance to descend a ladder into a cramped, uneven space where slaves were once held prior to transportation. Even though I am not claustrophobic, I felt the sorrow and dread of slavery's abominable history upon my shoulders like a heavy chain and I wanted out of there quick. It seemed inappropriate to visit such a place as part of a tourist diversion. It was an experience I will never forget and one that reminded me that travels --- even to exotic and remote places --- can sometimes afford us much more than fun in the sun.
Would I recommend Zanzibar? Yes, for some. It's definitely an adventure. And if your previous stops were Kenya or Tanzania, safari, the Serengeti, Kilimanjaro, etc., you'd be in the right mindset to go off the edge and keep exploring.
Hakuna matata,
Robert J. Spinosa
Vice President of Mortgage Lending
Guaranteed Rate
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