SALES REBOUND AS PRICES FALL... That was the headline of the Orange County Register on Tuesday, May 20th 2008. The accompanying photo was a very crowded entry to an open house. What's happening? The bottom of this market is approaching, that's what. This is exactly what was reported in this newsletter last month. Prices have gone down so far, so fast, that it's hard for waiting buyers to resist. We saw an upward trend in open escrows as mentioned last issue, but the main ingredient is the upward swing of the affordability index which is growing every month to a higher percentage of people who can now buy a home. This correction in the market was not only inevitable, it was necessary. When the market topped out in 2006, we were down to 11% affordability. When only 11 people out of 100 can afford to buy a home, that market is in trouble. According to Dataquick sales were still off 19% from the same period last year, but that is a lot better than 36% off the mark. But still, there is a long recovery period ahead. The OC Register reported, using Dataquick numbers, that April (the latest complete month stats available), was 46% below the average April since 1988. According to the article, "Sales for the January through April period were down 57% compared with the 20 year average."
But the upward trend is significant. Both investors and homebuyers are on the hunt for the perfect deal. Certainly the raise in FHA loan limits has helped significantly as well as FNMA interest rates remaining at their near historic lows. Should you buy? That's up to each individual to decide according to their need. But it should be mentioned that THE TODAY SHOW aired a segment on real estate the last week in May. Their conclusion: DON'T WAIT! BUY A HOUSE! This is the same morning show, viewed by millions that 2 years ago proclaimed, "Whatever you do, don't buy a house right now." So the fact that they are on board with a bottoming market, is at the very least, interesting.
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