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Bubble Schmubble...

By Doug Buenz

Real Estate Agent with COMPASS BRE# 00843458

March 05, 2007 05:32 PM

What if the real estate experts declared a real estate bubble, but no one participated? While the national news is full of articles about home price declines and increases in foreclosure rates, the Bay Area, especially the East Bay area in Pleasanton and surrounding areas, is quietly showing surprising strength in the early Spring.

Low inventory and steady if not spectacular demand is keeping the market stable. There are even (you didn't hear this from me) multiple offers happening, although not the 12 offers/$50,000 over asking/no contingencies/You get to keep our kids type of multiple offers we saw in 2003 & 2004. So where does that leave us? As real estate brokers, we can only really concentrate on the here and now. Clients don't pay us to arrive at the value of their home in 6 months, or one year ago, but rather to arrive at the value of the house today, given current market conditions. So right now, today, the first week in March, the Pleasanton area real estate market is good, stable, and acting like a typical early spring market. Don't ask me about the market in say 6 months, because obviously I can't say. But for now, the only bubbles we are seeing in Pleaanton are the champaigne bubbles celebrating the relatively quick sale of the seller's house.

Now... back to the South Florida condo market.

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Diane Bell, Hilton Head Real Estate, Bluffton

Charter 1 Real Estate, Hilton Head, Bluffton, SC - Hilton Head Island, SC

Bubble Schmubble.....I like that! Glad to hear your market area is performing well and I hope it continues for you. Things are looking more positive here in Hilton Head, too. Happy Selling!

Mar 05, 2007 10:45 PM

Anonymous

Harry Slater

I find it halarious reading real estate agents talking about the upside of Pleasanton's real estate, while at the same time ignoring the downside of things (or the fact they haven't closed a deal in months). The truth is, sales have dropped dramatically in the past 3 quarters, prices have dropped significantly, homes are sitting on the market for over 100 days and counting. As if that wasn't bad enough, banks have REALLY tightened their loaning practice, and there are many foreclosures coming into the market in the months to come. A quick trip to realtytrac.com will show you the growing list of preforeclosure properties throughout all of Pleasanton. Let's just say 50% of those become foreclosed, even without new supply of foreclosed properties, you'll see DOUBLE as many houses on the market as you see today. And keep in mind that these are foreclosed properties that will sell for pennies on a dollar. That'll no doubt, in my humble opinion, have a significant impact to housing prices in Pleasanton. My guess is that the median home price in Pleasanton will be somewhere in the upper 500's by years end and will drift down to 480ish before Pleasanton will see any stability or recovery. In a market like this, people would rather move back toward the area around the bay instead of constantly dealing with horrible commute on 580 and 680. And unlike what some may claim, there are lots of traffic on 580 because people are commuting to the Central Valley...not because they want to live in Pleasanton. So, stop kidding yourself!

Apr 07, 2008 07:41 PM

Doug

That article was written over a year ago. Things change. Sales have dropped, but "dramatically" might be a stretch. Yes foreclosure activity is increasing, but there is demand for those "bargain" properties. If you think they are going to sell for "pennies on the dollar" then you are in denial as well. There is money out there, but many buyers are just waiting for the right opportunities (best deal). Many short sale and foreclosure properties in Pleasanton and Dublin have multiple offers on them. There is a short sale in Ruby Hill right now that has 6 offers on it, and could probably have 4 or 5 more but they have elected not to show it anymore. You are failing to account for demand. And just as you claim people in the Tri-Valley want to move back towards the area around the bay, there are scores of people who live in the central valley who want to move to the Tri-Valley for exactly the same reason. Schools and quality of life will always make Pleasanton in demand for buyers, especially when price erosion makes it more attractive. Pleasanton is not immune from market forces... no one is. But to think it will become the next Antioch is fantasy as well. By the way, Antioch and Brentwood have seen dramatic increases in pending sales, so they are perhaps nearing stabilization. Only time will tell.

Apr 08, 2008 02:08 AM

Bubble Schmubble...

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