The Federal Reserve recently published their latest issue of the Beige Book. It is available online.

Beige BookThe following is a brief list of it's overall (national) summary findings (using data as of June 2nd):

1. Economic activity remained weak since the last report. Economic activity was weak, soft, sluggish, modest in all Districts, except Philadelphia, Atlanta, Cleveland, St. Louis and San Francisco which had stable or little change.
 
2. Consumer spending slowed over most of the county due to higher gas and food prices. Retail sales were mixed with stable to higher inventories. Vehicle sales were weak, especially for SUVs and trucks, but solid for hybrid and fuel-efficient vehicles.  Retail inventories are steady or rising.  Philadelphia noted some relative strength in demand for luxury goods
 
3. Tourism generally was dampened due to higher energy prices, while international tourists were still having positive impact in areas.
 
4. Reports were varied in non-financial service industries. Demand for service providers slowed in many areas. Air travel remained strong despite route reductions.  Shipping and freight activity was sluggish or weakening.
 
5. Manufacturing was soft since last report.  Housing and construction industries were still softer.  Food processing was mixed with "subdued" to strong demands.  Strong overseas market still positively impacting some industries, such as steel. Demand was strong for farm equipment and transportation equipment to supply defense and aircraft industries.
 
6. Commercial real estate conditions varied with some areas reporting softening. Overall rents were on the rise in New York, but were stable or beginning to slip in Boston, Philadelphia, Richmond, and Kansas City.  Sales trended downward according to the New York, Philadelphia, and Kansas City Districts.  Nonresidential construction activity was mixed.
 
7. Residential real estate markets remained weak in all districts.  Philadelphia and Kansas City reported seasonal improvements.  Inventory levels of new and existing homes were still high or rising. 
 
8. Lending activity was varied with softening in the consumer segment persisting.  Banks have continued to tighten credit standards for consumer, residential and commercial loans.
 
9. Crop conditions were generally improved.  Districts were concerned that rising feed costs were eating into profit margins.
 
10. Energy activity remained strong.  Oil producers reported increases in oil and gas drilling to their highest level in 20 years. 
 
11. Employment hiring pace slowed over past few weeks. 
 
12. Businesses contacted reported increases in input costs since the last report and expect higher prices in the near future.
 
Note: This represents the national summary for ALL districts combined. The report also provides more detail on each item summarized nationally, as well as reporting by each district on all items.



Copyright 2008 by Lawrence Yerkes. All Rights Reserved.

 
Post is included in group: Commercial Real Estate
Post is included in group: Business to Business

3 Comments on Beige Book Released By Federal Reserve For June 2008

JUN
12
2008

Lawrence - does the current economic environment reflect the activity you are seeing in your local market? Are prospective buyers concerned about those Jan and Feb heating bills?

10:59am • #1
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My "local" market is fairly broad and is somewhat varied, but generally is symptomatic of the economy as a whole.  Residential and Commercial, have different market patterns with some correlation, but not completely nor with the same timings. 

Commercial loans adjusted on their own to avoid subprime and similar issues, going back to financial basics and avoiding appreciation as a sole justification of investment valuation.

Everyone has always been concerned about Jan/Feb heating bills... now, it's a more heightened concern, but there are limited options for "hybrid or more fuel efficient" homes. 

Unless a house has been upgraded for extra efficiency, most homes are comparable in the buyers' eyes.  It's a concern, but there are not enough varieties of energy efficient homes yet from which to otherwise select.

High efficiency heaters can provide a dramatic reduction in the heating bills, as I can personally attest after upgrading our original heater last year.

12:14pm • #2

Lawrence - Thank you for the responce. I actually had not seriously thought about the subprime issues as they relate to commercial loans.

One follow-up question on efficiency. Is as vs. oil the biggie? My assumption is that that will aslo more heavily factor into the decision making process.

Again thank you for entertaining my questions.

4:37pm • #3

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Lawrence Yerkes - Broker Associate, Southern New Jersey Real Estate Services

Medford Township, NJ

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