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Freshly Killed Mortgages and Jungle Economics

By
Mortgage and Lending with Platinum Home Mortgage Company NMLS #238304

Here in California, its a jungle out there. Buyers have stopped waiting for houses to "GO LOWER". They are not wondering if buying real estate is a "good idea". And they sure aren't thinking about the potential for appreciation.

They have only one thing on their mind: Get in while you can. They are out in full force everywhere, hot on the trail of REO's, and operating at a fever pitch.

They are the economic scavengers in the real estate jungle....picking the bones of all those freshly killed mortgages.

Do I blame them? Of course not! It is the law of the jungle. We need scavengers so things won't go ROTTEN, you know. Just when they were convinced they would NEVER own real estate in California, along comes the mortgage crisis and they are salivating at the chance to feast on all those cheap houses.

Here is a twisted irony: Suddenly we are back to multiple offers. Buyers are bidding up the prices of REO's. Have we really come full circle leaving a giant swath of carnage in our wake? At what cost did we recycle that $500,000 house into the $295,000 REO (bringing buyers back into the market)?

Well, at least there are BUYERS again.  I guess we should consider this some kind of consolation prize.

Some of you are probably wondering why, if the price was going to be $200,000+ cheaper, we didn't just let the original guy who paid $500,000 stay there?

Some of you are probably thinking about all those real estate owners. You know, the ones that have seen the value of their house sink to the "give away" prices of those lender owned properties.

And if, in all the frenzy to grab the cheap REO's, I am reminded of the guy who lost his house, will you forgive me? For every house that proudly displays a "LENDER OWNED" sign, let's not forget there was someone who lost his house to foreclosure, ruining his credit for years to come.

Now, I know these are the laws of the jungle. They call it the circle of life, right? And its all a part of the process to keep the eco(nomic) system in check. With all those dead mortgages lying everywhere, we should be very grateful that there are hungry buyers ready to devour what remains after the kill.

So I try not to think about all that has died in the name of balancing this out of whack eco system.  But working and living in this jungle means I must pass by the carnage every day.

It isn't pretty, and I can't help but wonder if the tiger is still somewhere nearby, silently lurking.

 

Written by Janet Guilbault, Mortgage Lending Expert Based Out of the San Francisco Bay Area

 

Janet Guilbault
Platinum Home Mortgage Company - Walnut Creek, CA
San Francisco Bay Area Direct Mortgage Lender

Diane: I am thrilled to have buyers, but having a little stuggle because this new batch of buyers is far from my niche...they are first time buyers who need FHA loans.

It brings up another subject I considered writing about: Do you change your niche when the market makes another niche better (more profitable)?

My brokers say yes. I have mixed feelings.

PS My bank account says yes too.

Jun 30, 2008 08:08 AM
Janet Guilbault
Platinum Home Mortgage Company - Walnut Creek, CA
San Francisco Bay Area Direct Mortgage Lender

Sally and David: Lenders who qualify buyers for prices they should not? What does this mean....that you believe that the buyers should not be buying such an expensive house?

I am curious because our guidelines are now quite strict....no more stated income loans, everything being looked at with way more scutiny.....

Do you mean if bank says they can have a debt to income of 45% that you believe this is too high?

Confused!

Jun 30, 2008 08:12 AM
Janet Guilbault
Platinum Home Mortgage Company - Walnut Creek, CA
San Francisco Bay Area Direct Mortgage Lender

Missy: You have made an excellent point. When there are multiple offers on regular lisings (not those cheap REOs) we will know we are going in the right direction for a recovery.

But...................that may not happen until

1. All REO inventory is gone or

2. Prices drop to the same low level as the REOs

Jun 30, 2008 08:14 AM
Janet Guilbault
Platinum Home Mortgage Company - Walnut Creek, CA
San Francisco Bay Area Direct Mortgage Lender

Dawn: I don't think we have hit bottom, but what I think does not matter. Buyers think it has hit bottom or they wouldn't be out there making all those offers.

Jun 30, 2008 08:17 AM
Janet Guilbault
Platinum Home Mortgage Company - Walnut Creek, CA
San Francisco Bay Area Direct Mortgage Lender

Spencer: Well, I am glad that someone commented on the whole mania aspect of these buyers.

I almost make the post about that very issue. Here we are with a mania to buy real estate because it is so cheap. But a few years ago there was still a mania to buy, but because it was getting so expensive so fast.

I don't know if we just have some kind of twisted relationship with real estate. But we do seem to want it no matter what happens.

Thank goodness for that.

Jun 30, 2008 08:20 AM
Janet Guilbault
Platinum Home Mortgage Company - Walnut Creek, CA
San Francisco Bay Area Direct Mortgage Lender

Nancy: The new cars that are in the driveway.....I hope they are very small and electric.

Jun 30, 2008 08:23 AM
Carolyn Gjerde-Tu-Davis
Lyon Real Estate - Davis, CA
Ca Real Estate

The idea of whether or not we have hit bottom doesn't seem to be as prominant in the buyers I am working with currently.  There is a sense that prices (REO properties) are attractive RIGHT NOW, it is a very competitive market, most buyers I'm working with write 3 or more offers before getting one accepted.  (yes I'm also in California). 

Jun 30, 2008 10:08 AM
Janet Guilbault
Platinum Home Mortgage Company - Walnut Creek, CA
San Francisco Bay Area Direct Mortgage Lender

Carolyn: The inspiration for this post was all of my pre-approved buyers. They keep putting in offers and having multiple offers they must compete with. In frustration they are bidding up the price.

All comments from California indicate this is happening all over the state.

Thanks for the comment.

Jun 30, 2008 10:20 AM
Dasaret Cefa
Edgestone Realty, Alba First Coast Management - San Marino, CA
Earn 10% on your money. I acquire and manage rent

a pleasurable read Janet!

Jun 30, 2008 11:00 AM
Tina Merritt
Nest Realty - Blacksburg, VA
Virginia Real Estate

I love that bottom picture!!!!!!  Looks like he got a great "deal"!!!!!!

Tina in Virginia

Jun 30, 2008 11:47 AM
Karen Cooper
Karen Cooper | Sr Mortgage Loan Originator ! NMLS # 223305 | First Federal Bank of Florida, Ocala, FL - The Villages, FL
Helping Homeowners w/Home Loans in 27 US States

Janet - Looks like you've focused the "survival of the fittest" perspective away from the mortgage/ real estate industry members and on to the Sellers in your neck of the woods. Things here in Southern Oregon have never been quite as glum as markets like yours, but many California Sellers become Southern Oregon Buyers, so we've been seen "gnawing on your bones". :->

Jun 30, 2008 01:37 PM
Patti Geib
Capital Line Funding Group - San Diego, CA

Janet:  Great post.  It's a little known fact that there are 4.25 years of inventory on the banks books.  We have a lot of selling to do.  And something else to muddy up the water is that most banks do NOT own the homes they are selling, nor did the trustee conducting the sale have the authority to sell the property. so it's going to be interesting when this comes apart.  Banks are demanding that the potential buyer use the bank's designated "title" company which I personally find very suspicioius under the circumstances.  Remember most all of the mortgages were sold on the secoondary market, paper work did not get converted so they don't really know who owns the property or who is the trustee.  I am sorry it's a mine field for the unsuspecting buyer.  I'd say read all the documents VERY CAREFULLY because the buyer has NO Recourse. 

Patti Geib - Capital Line Funding Group - CA

Jun 30, 2008 01:58 PM
Janet Guilbault
Platinum Home Mortgage Company - Walnut Creek, CA
San Francisco Bay Area Direct Mortgage Lender

Patti: You have really shocked me with you figure of over 4 years of inventory. That would be the reason they need to sell cheap. Too many houses.

What gets me is how the lender seller insists on pre-qualifying the buyer before the Realtor can submit an offer. So mortgage broker (me) has staff send everything from the file over to the lender just so they can make the offer.

Then, while lender seller considers offer, they also try to steal the client from the mortgage broker!

What is wrong with this picture???? My Realtor called it slimy and tacky. But I am now used to it, and am thankful those people they have hired to steal clients are not usually too terribly hard to compete with.

 

Jun 30, 2008 04:02 PM
Janet Guilbault
Platinum Home Mortgage Company - Walnut Creek, CA
San Francisco Bay Area Direct Mortgage Lender

Karen: Where is the best beach property in Southern Oregon? I want to be a Californian that is gnawing on some bones in Oregon.

Jun 30, 2008 04:04 PM
Liz Moras Migic
Chilliwack, BC
Chilliwack, British Columbia - Realtor

Do you ever start feeling invisible when someone consistently doesnt respond to your comments.........above below and around ....just never to yours............?

Jun 30, 2008 06:49 PM
Janet Guilbault
Platinum Home Mortgage Company - Walnut Creek, CA
San Francisco Bay Area Direct Mortgage Lender

Liz: Please forgive me? I did overlook responding to your comment and I am very sorry for that. You are NOT invisable, and I appreciate each and every comment and every reader I have. I really slipped up and I am sorry.

You have said that your market is not following California. Does this mean your REOs are not selling, or are they not priced low enough to attract attention? Or do you have so few REOs, that this is not significant?

You are right about the zig zag effect. I was surprised that all that commented from Calif were in agreement with what was happening in their market. Yet for the other markets this was not the case.

As for your remark about ominous....I have observed that when buyers get in a frenzy, they lose their heads. I see people buying only because things "appear" to be bargain basement priced. My point at the end is that prices could still go down. Most are using the 97% loans and could end up underwater quickly if prices sink.

Buyers should proceed with caution.

Again, sorry for my lack of response.

Jul 01, 2008 02:15 AM
Karen Cooper
Karen Cooper | Sr Mortgage Loan Originator ! NMLS # 223305 | First Federal Bank of Florida, Ocala, FL - The Villages, FL
Helping Homeowners w/Home Loans in 27 US States

Janet - We drove the entire Oregon Coast during Spring Break a few years back, and there are TONS of great beach areas. Depends on what you are looking for. Newport is a popular vacation destination; Brookings is a quieter one with a weather phenomenon that makes it one of the best places to be in Oregon in autumn; Florence is the destination of choice for the off-roaders; Tillamook is where the famous cheese products come from and some amazing property in this rural area in the northern regions; Astoria and her famous bridge...these are a few of my favorite things.

Jul 01, 2008 09:12 AM
Janet Guilbault
Platinum Home Mortgage Company - Walnut Creek, CA
San Francisco Bay Area Direct Mortgage Lender

Karen: What about Cannon Beach? I went there once and thought it was beautiful.

Jul 01, 2008 10:40 AM
Karen Cooper
Karen Cooper | Sr Mortgage Loan Originator ! NMLS # 223305 | First Federal Bank of Florida, Ocala, FL - The Villages, FL
Helping Homeowners w/Home Loans in 27 US States

Cannon Beach is a beautiful area, is a favorite weekend destination for Portlanders, misses a lot of the rain other areas of the Northern part of Oregon get, and is a hop skip and a jump from some great wineries and Portland. Although we were too early when we pulled through Cannon Beach, I heard they put on a mean sandcastle building competition.

Jul 10, 2008 11:04 AM
Thomas Hargreaves
TriStar Financial Services - Eugene, OR

"it's not what happens around you that matters, it's What you do about it.

                                                                    Jim Rohn

Jul 13, 2008 07:15 AM