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All Things Real Estate: Is the American Dream of homeownership fleeting?

By
Real Estate Broker/Owner with Turn Key Real Estate 31RA0874656

 

Now that the moratorium and forbearance programs on foreclosures, short sales, and rentals are over, what will the market look like this year? Currently, there are over 14,000 foreclosures on Long Island. No one can determine how many will be able to stay in their homes, which have built up excellent equity compared with the 2008 market when most were underwater on their mortgages.

Today when selling one has a greater opportunity with the huge buyer demand and still low-interest rates to walk away with money and keep their credit in good standing. But will the market continue or slow down? Many experts and professionals previously predicted a slowdown in purchasing and an increase in housing inventory. However, none of these scenarios materialized, due to the pandemic, causing many to flee the large cities.

In my opinion, you become an expert when your predictions and prognostications occur on a consistent basis. Just because you are correct once, doesn’t make you an expert. Determining future events today is a very difficult, challenging, and almost impossible task to know in advance what the end result will be until it happens. Guestimates are great if they come true! Research also makes your predictions better, but because today no one has ever experienced so many unpredictable events, it’s a hard call to be very accurate.

Ray Dalio, founder, and CEO of Bridgewater Associates, one of the most successful hedge funds, has studied 500 years of the rise and fall of economies and empires around the globe. I consider him a master of his trade. He has provided some very insightful predictions as to where our country is headed in his new book, “Principles for Dealing with “The Changing World Order,” where he sees the United States in a very precarious position and potential decline as a world power.

The excessive printing of dollars is a phase that we are going through right now as the majority of past empires experienced and was a factor in their demise. We are in a very similar position adding another nail to our coffin. Moreover, the loss of manufacturing jobs to China and other countries has also impeded our standard of living for a multitude of Americans.

So many are employed in service jobs in the hospitality, recreation, and food/restaurant industries and that potentially will forever keep them from achieving a path to becoming middle class and homeowners. This is one of the reasons that slowly but surely over the last 20 or so years our middle class has been consistently declining. The much higher cost of living for housing, food, and energy has also kept more individuals and families from attaining a decent standard of living. Just look around at what is happening today with the Russian invasion and the price of gas.

The No. 1 answer, which is very crucial, is being able to gain an above-average education, someway, somehow. My personal experience looking back 25 years ago was when my daughter attended Emory University ($47,000 per year and studied abroad) and my son attended the University of Maryland School of Engineering ($27,000 per year and study abroad).

I was fortunate enough to be in a position to somewhat afford their educations (by busting my butt!), but they contributed a portion towards their expenses and both had jobs in the summer, waitressing and working in our local movie theatre.  But they only received undergraduate degrees and the timing (luck) couldn’t have been more opportune for both of them as they were able to attain excellent positions after graduating.

My daughter was going to be a Spanish teacher and my son a civil engineer. After much discussion and some convincing, my daughter applied to Bloomberg Financial, and with little or no business classes taken, she was hired after completing Bloomberg University to learn the requirements of her position. Eleven years later she was recruited by LinkedIn, where she is currently employed as a manager of a large team in charge of Fortune 500 companies.

My son has worked for Gotham, GFI Development, Shawmut, and is currently at Vanguard Construction. To achieve similar positions where they are employed today, you would absolutely need at least a master’s degree and possibly a doctorate due to the competition,  assuming that there were even positions available.

The problem today is that the cost of education is so prohibitive. There is currently $1.61 trillion of student debt. So even if you take loans out, you may be in debt for the rest of your life except for those who are fortunate to have parents able to afford the costs or the minority of those students who become professionals, e.g., lawyers, doctors who specialize, architects, engineers and earn their master and doctorate degrees.

One must consider education the No. 1 priority to attain the American Dream of becoming a homeowner; or if you are lucky receiving parental financial assistance or inheritance. The other possibility is going out and working in a field that you are interested in and possibly have a passion for. Learn the ropes and then at some point go into business with a plan for yourself. Then determine how much you want to earn which will depend on and be determined by your concerted efforts, discipline actions, and the sacrifice of your valuable time to get where you need to be.

You and only you will determine what path you take to become a homeowner and if you want it bad enough, you’ll do whatever necessary to achieve and accomplish this and make it happen.

 

Posted by

Sincerely,

Philip A. Raices, Pres/CEO, 

Graduate Realtor Institute

(What I consider a Masters Degree in Real Estate)
 
C.I.P.S. (Certified International Property Specialist)
 
The National Association of Realtors "Green" designation
(Certified in Eco-Friendly Low Carbon Footprint Construction/3-D Printed Foundations/Geo-Thermal HVAC/Solar Panels/Heat Pumps)

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Comments (3)

Dan McGuire
Signature Premier Properties - Ronkonkoma, NY

On Long Island, Suffolk County NY, our communities value education within their communities. Most buyers determine their community based on the school system. 

 

Mar 04, 2022 05:47 PM
Philip A. Raices

Hey Dan GM,


I wholeheartedly agree with your statement.  However, the problem is many on Long Island and elsewhere across our nation may not be able to afford purchasing, let alone renting in those locals that have above average school districts.  Then what happens they can only live in those towns and cities where there is greater difficulties in learning, teachers pay is considerably less, both parents working (divorced single parents or drug and alcohol issues)  without a role model; and then the streets gobble them up with the bad element that is getting worse each and every day!  Moreover, real estate in many of those areas is priced much lower, but lately probably higher and landlords don't always care about their tenants, but more about their R.O.I.  Also, real estate taxes, heating costs, water etc. for the smaller landlords is causing many to have 2nd thoughts about their investments.  


More needs to be done to elevate those in areas where education is lacking, government intervention, higher pay etc. but also getting parents on board to make sure their kids do their homework and study and also the parents need some disciplining too! We need more motivating programs for kids and parents together to make the learning experience worthwhile, exciting and beneficial for their financial future.  More business oriented, entrepreneurship and apprentice programs and jobs and government sponsored and supported.  More money for interventions and community service programs involving the local police to get more connected with families and individuals to create better rapport and long term relationships.  For without proper education the middle class will continue to erode and falter, eliminating those from ever experiencing The "American Dream" of home ownership!

Mar 06, 2022 05:55 AM
George Souto
George Souto NMLS #65149 FHA, CHFA, VA Mortgages - Middletown, CT
Your Connecticut Mortgage Expert

Philip A. Raices there are homeowners who would like to sell, but are concerned with the length of time it may take them to find a house they like, and to get an accepted offer.  That is a big concern and I feel is the main reason why we continue tho have low inventory, and keeping some potential Buyers form obtaining the American Dream.

Mar 05, 2022 07:25 AM
Philip A. Raices

Hey George GM,


Your point is well taken.  However, from my reading and research, the main most important reason that our inventory is the most historically low in 50+ years is from 2008-2015, builders large and small  reduced and many stopped filing building permits from the implosion of our market worrying that they would once again get stuck with their inventory (millions of foreclosures and short sales occurred) as prices were tumbling (rates were much higher then too).  However the smart ones saw prices leveling off by 2011 and began some construction once again.  But the millions of millennials and Gen Z's and others that have come into the market every year  since then has not allowed builders to come even close to catching up with demand.  In 2019, I did some analysis and saw that the longest economic cycle we had been in since WWII was beginning to slightly cool off, but, wham bang the pandemic hit in March 2020 and then no business for us going out in NYS until June 10.  Then the huge overwhelming shut down of almost all businesses throughout the U.S. and the tremendous exodus of families and individuals from large crowded cities eg. NYC, Chicago, Los Angeles, etc. to the burbs and even much smaller communities out west and down south which is when our market took off like a "bat out of hell" and prices went through the roof and just crushed our inventory near nothing.  Currently, there is no bubble in inventory, but there just may be a bubble in prices for so many who desire to buy; and if interest rates continue to increase, that is when more and more purchasers will jump into rentals, making rental investments very valuable.  I do not see rates going above 5%.  The reason I say this is that as interest rates increase so does the interest on our 22 Trillion+ National debt.  Read the article by Bill Conerly of Forbes magazine on 10/16/21 for an in depth analysis of our precarious and somewhat doomed financial environment.  Also, you might want to pick up or download Ray Dalio's new book (Founder and CEO of Hedge Fund Bridgewater Associates) Principles for Dealing with The Changing World Order  (Why Nations Succeed and Fail).


Lastly, we are caught between a rock and a hard place and with our Fiat currency just may have to morph with some type of cryptocurrency hybrid to survive.

Mar 06, 2022 06:33 AM
Richard Weeks
Dallas, TX
REALTOR®, Broker

Great information, thanks for sharing.  I hope you have a great day.

Mar 07, 2022 02:40 AM
Philip A. Raices

Hey Richard GM,


Thank you for your compliment, I really appreciate it!  However, as the scary continued invasion of Ukraine continues, it reminds me of Sept 1, 1939, as Hitler started his invasion of Poland, and there began the start of WWII.  But now we have not only Russia, but their new partner China, who has yet to come out and condemn the senseless intrusion into a Democratic and free country as a threat to not only other nearby countries but the world!  NATO has never been so connected and solidified to indirectly fight the aggressor.  This sick event that is in it's 11th day just may have an affect on our housing market, as the stock market has been a bit shaky, inflation is at a 40 yr high, gas prices are going to an historic level, not seen since 2008 and food and heating oil and natural gas have been increasing to levels that is putting pressure on so many budgets and possibly causing another recession! The only thing left is the psychology of our current environment that might be the last thing that just might change the current "hot market" and not the normal supply and demand economics that have been always rule of thumb.  Due to the lowest inventory that I can remember, and we all think that this amazing run won't stop until either inventory increases or what's most important, interest rates increase to a level that will slow the current trend, I hope that we are not at a critical and crucial turning point of change!  I am quite concerned, but still keep a positive attitude, and hope and pray that the Ukrainian situation will be settled and not expanded into WWIII.

Mar 07, 2022 05:54 AM