Unemployment numbers came in Friday showing the unemployment rate rising to 3.7%. Remember, the jobs report is the main economic component that the Fed is holding onto to prove to everyone we are not in a recession – even though up until only recently (oddly enough), 2 back to back quarters of GDP growth is what defined a recession.
We have a lot of Fed members talking this short week. They will most likely break down what went on at Jackson Hole and support the Fed Chairman’s speech from Friday.
Wednesday
- International Trade Balance
- Cleveland Fed President Mester Speaks
- Fed Vice Chair Brainard Speaks
- Beige Book
- Fed Vice Chair Barr Speaks
Thursday
- Initial & Continuing Jobless Claims
- Fed Chair Jerome Powell Speaks
- Chicago Fed President Evans Speaks
Friday
- Chicago Fed President Evans Speaks
- Kansas City Fed President George Speaks
- Fed Gov. Waller Speaks
The majority of Fed members have turned hawkish which means we should expect them to continue raising the prime rate to control their perception of inflation.
Chart Check (see above)
You can see where I mentioned (black circle) these things like to retest the lows. We’re seeing that play out. We are in a small downward channel. It’ll be interesting to hear/see what the Fed members have to say this week and how the market digests it.
Click HERE to stay current with the Fed’s meetings this year. You can also view the statements and minutes from previous meetings.
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