Special offer

“Housing demand continues to outpace housing supply.”

By
Industry Observer with Paul D. Diaz, EA, MBA BK 602473

Are you experiencing this in your market? Comment below.

Interesting interview - excerpt below …

Nadia Evangelou is senior economist and director of real estate research at the National Association of Realtors. 

This conversation has been lightly edited for length and clarity. 

Phil Rosen: You don't anticipate a housing crash this year. What's behind that forecast?   

Nadia Evangelou: What we see in the data is that the housing market will likely pick up in the coming months, in the spring season. 

One very important indicator is the pending home sales index, which just rose significantly for the second straight month. 

And we actually expect inflation to ease faster than expectations in the second half of this year, which could bring mortgage rates down to the lower range of 6%. So we expect home sales to pick up and the housing market to perform better.

In your view, what's keeping home prices from crashing, which some Wall Street firms have forecasted? 

NE: It seems that homesales activity has bottomed out, and 2023 will be the turning point for the housing market. 

But what we do have in mind is that the US is suffering from a severe housing shortage. Back in 2008, we had an oversupply of homes by like 4 million, but now we have less than 1 million. This is the main factor that keeps home prices from falling

Due to low inventory, even though there are relatively few buyers on the market, housing demand continues to outpace housing supply.

What about home sales activity? 

NE: Our forecast is that even though activity will pick up in the next months, we still expect fewer homes to be sold in 2023 compared to 2022, up to 11% drop in home sales activity

But in 2024 we expect a rebound — home sales activity can increase about 18%. 

We expect 4.5 million homes to be sold in 2023, and about 5.3 million homes to be sold in 2024. 

Comments (1)

George Souto
George Souto NMLS #65149 FHA, CHFA, VA Mortgages - Middletown, CT
Your Connecticut Mortgage Expert

Paul D. Diaz, EA, MBA our inventory here in CT is super low, and I do not see that changing anytime soon.

Mar 11, 2023 02:55 PM