I know many in real estate would like to remake the movie "Weekend at Bernies" to "Weekend with Bernake!"  But you can't! Sooner or later the party had to end. This market is so fraugth with intrigue, fraud and drama no one knows what to believe anymore.  I was thinking how in real estate the agent used to be the portal for the buyer in the sense that the real estate agent sat the buyer down adn qualified the buyer looking over income, debt, and bank statements to see if the buyer was qualified to buy.  If things looked good, the process for buying began.  In recent years inexperienced agents did not qualify buyers and put them into the car first, and when the contract was about to be written would go into a scramble mode to find any lender that could accommodate the deal.  Kind of really doing things backwards when you think about it. 

The fact was the old way of conforming ratios of debt and income were pretty good, but there were not enough deals to satisfy the greed in the banking world...so the 20% down rull gave way to the 80/15/5, and then the 80/10/10 and then the 100% borrower, and then to sub-prime that really could not afford to repay or refinance their own loan. With each change of the requirements we scrapped through the dreggs and of the barrell and beyond to find warm bodies to buy more real estate.  Well the news is, the party is over, and the appreciation and values we are now left looking at are not real by any stretch of the imagination.  So why is this a surprise to many in real estate that the copse of what we are doing is stinking so much now that the government and banks cannot even fake its death anymore?

What we will be hearing about shortly is the banks and the lending institutions are broke.  Watch the news carefully.  Bernake's speech his morning was an attempt to pour oil on the waters, and prop it up with words of confidence that really isn't there.  Too bad rigamortis is now setting in.  The fact of the matter is that the banks cannot raise cash to keep things running, they can't make loans, and they cannot hide the truth any longer.  Thier assets are now liabilities especially when you lend out 100% and it is now worth 75%, and the borrower has walked.  And guess what?  There are no buyers to take it off the banks hands.

Jim Crawford REMAX

RE/MAX Greater Atlanta  770-238-0122 Direct

Or  888-992-5546 Toll Free Office

Atlanta Real Estate & Atlanta Homes for Sale

 
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10 Comments on The Longest Sucker's Rally in Real Estate Is Just Ending!

JUL
08
2008

I couldn't agree more.  Anyone who thinks the housing market is at or near the bottom is in for a real surprise.  As you have said as the money continues to dry up and the rates increase the properties overall value will decrease.  I think the the federal government is in a position that it definately does not want to be in which is a bank bailout!

10:15am • #1
103,406 Points

Hello Jim, I think too that some of the folks on Wall Street got their greed into the game and supported junk mortgage lending practices as long as they could re-sell those loans for a profit.  When the tide turned unfavorably, those folks probably moved on to the next market segment they could spoil; perhaps in the energy segment?!

John & Kathryn

10:20am • #2
596,408 Points 80 Featured Posts Outside Blog

 Weichert Realtors Dunhill Group  That is exactly what Bernake was infering the Fed needed to do today.  They need to be in a position to help investment firms (which they are not really under Federal Charter to do) or banks in an orderly consolidation... In other words what the Federal Reserve is saying that without their guidence you will have a disorderly wholesale collapse.  We must not mince words and we need to understand what is actually happening.  This is a crisis.

10:49am • #3
596,408 Points 80 Featured Posts Outside Blog

Alexander ∞ Slocum Real Estate Team - Vancouver Washington Real Estate (RE/MAX equity group, inc.) I totally agree.  As each group disappeared from the buying scene, they opened up a new set of even lower lending standards, and then still lower, and lower again.  The no money don bid up prices so much so that most agents and homeowners think their home is worth that price.  It isn't.  It was a credit frenzy.  In many ways I am glad to be sitting on the sidelines ready to buy a great deal when I see it.  The time is nearing for incredible opportunities for cash buyers.

10:52am • #4
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Even though this was coming, we all hoped it would not happen.

1:39pm • #5
596,408 Points 80 Featured Posts Outside Blog

Randy L. Prothero - Hawaii REALTOR® (Century 21 Liberty Homes)  No one wanted this to happen.  But I also feel the Federal oversite was totally to blame!  They ahve a job to do and they did not do it. 

2:38pm • #6
131,591 Points 13 Featured Posts

Greed was at the heart of this one - it wasn't job loss like last time just pure and simple greed. I'm hoping your pessimism is somewhat misplaced but I fear it is not. We are starting to see a resurgence of buyer activity in SoCal even as prices continue to drop.

6:54pm • #7
596,408 Points 80 Featured Posts Outside Blog

Gene Wunderlich - Selling Southwest California Homes / Temecula & Murrieta (Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage)   I am on a consumer grass roots foreclosure task force in Georgia, and I was told this week that there are 2 more major waves of sub-prime mortgage resets coming this year alone.

7:06pm • #8
2 Featured Posts

Don't forget the lenders and appraisers who intentionally falsified values just to make deals.  They played a huge part in the high number of foreclosures we are experiencing.  My husband (who is an appraiser) turned down MANY appraisals over the years and lost many lender clients because the lenders wanted (expected) him to get values that were not there.  Many people who are losing (or have lost) their homes had worked with these lenders and appraisers when refinancing, cashed out their equity (with their inflated appraised value) and now cannot afford their mortgage, nor can they sell as they owe WAY more than their property is worth.  I was ill at the time that we were losing appraisal business, but I am even more peeved at this point because an honest appraiser could not keep his business/clients due to so much dishonesty in the appraisal and lending professions.

I am seeing this more and more when creating CMA's for potential listing clients.  They tell me what their home appraised for "just a year ago", which isn't close to today's market value... not even in the ballpark.  I look at the appraisals from their re-fi's to find that the comps weren't comparable in any regard, when I was able to find exact homes in their subdivision that sold 6 months to a year before the appraisal date that were truly comparable.  Then I find myself having to tell the homeowner that perhaps they should wait to sell until the value catches up to what they owe OR they will have to take a loss if they want to sell in todays market -UNLESS they are at risk of losing their home and want to try to negotiate a short sale..... but that is another blog!

What about all the people with adjustable rate mortgages who could afford their home at one time, but now cannot?  Can't the government do something to keep these interest rates from continuing to rise?  After all, there will be MANY people who will lose their homes because of the rising rates which means EVEN MORE FORECLOSURES!

Thank you for your thought provoking blog.... and for listening to me rant!  Somehow you always make me think.... perhaps too much.  I'm going to go read "The Secret" again & go to bed! (LOL - Kidding!)  As Scarlett O'Hara says, "I'll think about this tomorrow"!

Life is still GOOD!
Michelle

8:47pm • #9
596,408 Points 80 Featured Posts Outside Blog

Michelle Miller, REALTOR® (RE/MAX Town & Country)   According to what I've been reading in some new statistics, the south has been particularlly hard with a lot of losses.  I cannot speak for the rest of the nation.  I have closed many home owners that were too proud to go into short sale and they brought upwards of 15K, 20K and 40K to closing to cover their losses.  Some sales are taking over a year to sell.  I have had sellers divorce and walk away from a mess that has no solutions, their home has already been forclosed.  It is an eye opener, and even though I have been licensed since 1979, I have not seen a market this bad.  You are correct, there were loads of folks that participated and enabled this.  I like to think I did not.  I never asked once for an appraisal number or told a person to take a 100% loan.  I am glad this is over, but I like many in this business home we return to some normal times soon.  In my heart I know it is going to take a while to sort all of this out.  It is sad, but they really killed the goose that laid the golden eggs!

9:36pm • #10

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Jim Crawford ~ Atlanta Real Estate-ABR E-PRO

Atlanta, GA

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RE/MAX Greater Atlanta

Address: REMAX Greater Atlanta, 1585 Holcomb Bridge Road, Roswell , GA, 30076

Office Phone: (770) 238-0122

Cell Phone: (770) 664-9516

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Atlanta real estate broker associate, real estate columnist for www.RealtyTimes.com, real estate speaker. Real estate marketing, Internet marketing for real estate, real estate coaching Feedjit Live Website Statistics


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