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You Thought It Was Bad Before? Buckle Up, I've Got News ...

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Real Estate Technology with Content, coding, marketing, host.

Now most of my writing is not about how bad things are. In fact it was I who said, "If you think the market is so bad get the hell out and let the rest of us make a living." Well, I'm thinking about getting back into Internet Services - I programmed the online catalogs (shopping cart systems), message boards [an old name for blogs], online contact management and information delivery systems, online databases for The NRA, Loomis&Fargo, Hunter Engineering, Shari's Restaurants, CrossGen Comics and many more - in fact, I programmed and developed one of the first online video streaming sites back in 1999 for a company called PCVision - bug I digress.

It's bad today from a finance standpoint. It's very difficult to get funding even for decent credit, income and asset folks. Many lenders just flat out say "no real estate agents with stated income at all".

It's about to get worse ... maybe much worse. Unless ...

Ben Bernanke and the Fed Board have control over Fannie and Freddie wherein lending guidelines are concerned. One of the many lines of "sweeping changes" they are planning on making whether you like it or not is the complete elimination of stated income loans. Shhhhh, if you oppose them you don't know what their real purpose is but I'm about to hit you with an exact scenario from my office this morning.

My client makes $60,000 per year that she can demonstrate on her taxes. Her husband makes $80,000 per year that he can demonstrate on his taxes. The home mortgage is in her name, his truck is in her name, he pays all of the utilities and contributes to the other cost of living expenses in the home. He has a middle score in the mid 500's and just came out of bankruptcy - basically nothing really available to him as a borrower. In fact, if we put him on a loan application it would cause the application to be denied because of his credit history. Now if she can state her income as her salary plus 1/2 of what he contributes to the expenses (1/2 of the house payment, the truck payment, living expenses) then she can qualify for the refinance they need to get out of the ARM they are in.

Do you think it's fair to deny her or should she be able to state her income to include her husband's contribution to expenses?

Either way the Feds plan on eliminating Stated Income loans for any purpose or reason within a very short time.

Down Payment Assistance for FHA Homebuyers. I know, some of you just went, "Well, Ken, what's the problem with that? If they can't save enough to make a 3% down payment they don't deserve to own their own home!"

Consider this: Mary and Phil are renting an apartment for $1200 per month. They have no tax advantage at all from renting. They have built no equity and no mortgage credit history. I know, that genius Kyosaki or whatever his name is tells you this is smart ... why does he own his own home then? But again, I digress.

Mary and Phil have never owned their own home but a nice Realtor™ who is also an Active Rain member has found the perfect home for them. It is a nice 3 bed, 2 bath ranch right in their area and it's a steal because it was a foreclosure. They can get it for about $110,000 and all the comps are in the $140k range. Best of all their principal and interest payment will be only $688 per month!

But wait, they haven't been able to save any money because they've been working so hard to pay off their cars and student loans and they've been paying such high rent. Their DTI will be only 31% with the new home but they have NO DOWN PAYMENT.

Still think it's a good idea to deny them the opportunity to own their own home because they haven't been able to save when they can get the home for pennies on the dollar, have great credit, good income but no down payment?

The government, by it's very design, cannot make regulations that treat everyone fairly. The best they can do is to make regulations that either treat the majority fairly or punish the majority equally.

A year ago or more I wrote "The Baby, The Bathwater, And The American Dream". It's somewhere on AR.

Lastly, at least for this blog post, interest rates are Going To Go Up. It's a necessity. Inflation is in the process of running away. Fuel costs are out of site, unemployment is up sharply, Americans are using their credit cards to buy gas and food, housing values have tanked and loans are difficult to fund. The balance is to raise interest rates. I don't have time to explain why just Google rates vs. inflation or something.

It's not going to get better soon and, in fact, it's going to get even worse before it gets better.

I wrote this to tell you to act now, urge you clients to act now. If you know anyone who has not refinanced who currently needs to or soon will need to they better do it NOW. I mean N.O.W.

Peace, ya'll

I am available for public comment. 678-946-0100

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THE OPINIONS IN THIS COMMENTARY ARE STRICTLY KEN COOK's PERSONAL OPINION AND NOT REFLECTIVE ON ACTIVE RAIN, NOVATION MORTGAGE, or ANY SPONSOR OF THIS WEBSITE.

EDUCATION BEATS LEGISLATION EVERY TIME. Get your clients, friends and family members to a LENDER RUN home mortgage seminar as soon as possible.

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Copyright©2008 Ken Cook. Georgia and Florida real estate investment loans, FHASecure and FHA Home Loans, nationwide commercial hard money and small business loans, non-recourse loans for real estate investors

Novation Mortgage, 2501 E Piedmont Road, Suite 201, Marietta, GA 30062 Georgia Residential Mortgage Licensee 20014. Florida Mortgage Broker Business MBB 0703760 FHA Lender - Equal Housing Lender

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I started writing on Active Rain in 2006 when I was representing the mortgage industry. I am no longer in that industry and many of the older posts contain outdated information. Please do not contact me for LENDING or MORTGAGE questions but rather contact a licensed mortgage professional from your area. I have always been in marketing and branding and that is still what I do. Thanks for reading!

Comments(10)

Chris Miller Nevada Land with Water Rights
Vegas Grand Realty and Property Management - Mesquite, NV
Land with Water Rights For Sale

Its a mess, but that is what we thought in 1982 also! Innovation, supply and demand, the market will work through this.

Jul 10, 2008 05:57 AM
Thomas Hargreaves
TriStar Financial Services - Eugene, OR

I agree with you, so thats why I have begun offering other services in addition to mortgages.  That way when things come back, I am still in business and have the capital to properly market mortgage business.

Jul 10, 2008 06:09 AM
Ken Cook
Content, coding, marketing, host. - Marietta, GA
Content Marketer/Creator

Chris - yes, this is my third time through something tough. I have to admit this is the worst it has been in my lifetime. Will we come through? As a nation, yes, as companies, some - 70% are already gone - IndyMac closed their wholesale division. Trust me, I'm still very optimistic on the future and have piloted my medium sized company through the times when most of my competitors closed their doors. But, BUT, going from closing $4,000,000 a month (since before the bubble) to closing $750,000 per month (after the collapse) will knock the wind out of even the most idealistic visionary from time to time. The problem is the fallout isn't over yet ... we're not as deep as we're going to go. 30% of your remaining qualified buyers are about to be knocked out of qualifying if these sweeping changes are not modified. Some will be knocked out anyway because rates are going to go up starting very soon.

Thomas - we've trimmed back just about to the bone. Gone from 14 employees to 7 and next week down to 5. 4,500 square feet of offices down to 1100 and trimming that back to 450 at the end of August. Can I make it alone? Yes, I alone can live on the volume we are able to close. Problem is we're still taking 12 to 15 new callers every day - there just is no funding for the majority.

Freedom Mortgage is a large wholesaler. Yesterday we spoke with one of the decision makers there who told us they have 900 files in underwriting but less than 300 will fund. After the FHA changes that number will be even lower. A good friend has been with BofA for a couple of years. They just cut their programs so deeply (the ones he most relied on to closed loans) that he called me looking for a job. Wachovia has almost eliminated their portfolio product. This means almost everybody is straight Fannie or Freddie and the are no more exceptions.

Jul 10, 2008 06:31 AM
Jason Sardi
Auto & Home & Life Insurance throughout North Carolina - Charlotte, NC
Your Agent for Life

Ken - I wrote a post about 6 months back about surviving in this or any other market, utilizing a 'cockroach' analogy.  In that post, I predicted in about 6 months ... all would come back, at least in my neck of the woods.  Money, unlike Real Estate, is National and that in turn affects everybody. Nostradamus, I am not.  While I don't have an Orwellian view of it all per se, I do believe the economic shake down will continue on ... 6 to 9 more months:-)

Jul 10, 2008 07:04 AM
Ken Cook
Content, coding, marketing, host. - Marietta, GA
Content Marketer/Creator

Jason - you may be right. 2 years ago I predicted we would recover from the not yet begun implosion by August of 2008 (which, if my calender is right, is three weeks from now). At that time I did not know petroleum would be $4 per gallon, beef $6 per pound, unemployment up 1%, 80% of the lenders out of business, BearStearns rescued from certain death, Fannie and Freddie stock down 55% and foreclosures as prolific as they have been. For me I can make it with just myself and a couple of assistants ... a far cry from where we were before the bubble. If we don't get some liquidity into the market soon, however, that may even change! Thanks, as always, for your comments!

Jul 10, 2008 07:27 AM
Bryant Tutas
Tutas Towne Realty, Inc and Garden Views Realty, LLC - Winter Garden, FL
Selling Florida one home at a time

Ken, DPA with FHA is HUGE in my market. It's just about the only product the average first time home buyer has at their disposal. When folks work in the service industry, as most do in my area, saving $3,000 to $5,000 for a down payment is almost insurmountable. These are just good folks that want to own a house. BUT....my guess is that if Nehemiah and Ameridream are not allowed I'll just have to place these folks with the good old "Farmer's Home Loan". That is still an excellent product to use on Poinciana.

Fortunately, for me I have revamped my marketing and have been picking up a few investors. I've snagged 15 new investors in the last 45 days and have 3 under contracts already who are using CASH!!! We love cash. So I'm scraping and clawing and have manged to place 9 deals under contract in the last 45 days with several more that I'm working on. It took me about 10 months to adapt to this new market but I am now in full swing. Heck I just got a short sale approved in 30 days and will be closing on it Monday.

BUT.....I agree completely that it's going to get a lot worse.

However, Tutas Towne Realty is expanding.

Give me a call tomorrow.

Jul 10, 2008 10:53 AM
Lane Bailey
Century 21 Results Realty - Suwanee, GA
Realtor & Car Guy

Gee Ken... Thanks.  I guess I'll go back to watching Deathrace 2000 (TiVo'd) and mutter about everything being OK... I don't want to participate in bad news. 

;^ )

Jul 10, 2008 02:08 PM
Eleanor Thorne
Equity Resources - Cary, NC
Advantage Lending 919-649-5058

Here in NC - we've been living with the "no stated and no more no doc loans" for a while.  I'm actually hopeful that if the Fed takes over - there will be more transparency.  With transparency in the mortgage market - maybe investors will come back in to purchase MBS paper.  It's the lack of folks purchasing paper (and rightfully so) that has me spooked about staying in the business... and I've been in it since I was 15 (yep first job was putting together MBS securities for a PMI company) and I'm older than DIRT now! 

Jul 11, 2008 07:32 AM
Ken Cook
Content, coding, marketing, host. - Marietta, GA
Content Marketer/Creator

Bryant - I did, we talked. It was good!

Lane - sorry, bro. Didn't mean to send you back that far! I think acknowledgement of bad news is the first step to recovery. I admit I have been fighting it tooth and nail. Now it's time to fight it with a little more hard work. Myra and I built this company and everything we have from $3500 we borrowed. We worked, no joke, from 6 in the morning until 10 at night 5 days a week, several hours on Saturdays (like I am right now) and several hours on Sundays (like we will tomorrow).

Eleanor - we'll see what happens with Fannie/Freddie ... if the feds loosen up at least $1trillion we'll have a chance but anything less than that just won't do it. $1trillion for 5 years at 2% fixed to Fannie/Freddie and when they figure out they need to listen to me on how to control oil prices we'll be saved. Other than that get ready for more of these ... http://indymacbank.com

Jul 12, 2008 06:41 AM
Gene Wunderlich
1st Action Real Estate - Murrieta, CA
Realtor & Legislative Liaison

Just got back from a month vacation  - I figure I'm not selling real estate so I may as well take a little time off. This stuff is crazy. My daughter is trying to buy a house with good income, good fico, 10% to 20% down and house payments less than she's been paying for rent. Getting her a loan has been an incredibly stressful process for no apparent reason. The knee-jerks will be the end of us. We'll get thru this but several of my friends, agents who have been down this road three or four times, are bailing saying this is the worst and it's just not worth the aggravation.

Jul 21, 2008 05:54 PM