Wednesday afternoon was fantastice weather in Ann Arbor, one of those days where you are not sorry you live in this state. My family and I set outside on the deck and talked, had a glass of wine. Everyone was smiling and laughing. I had done my usual trec to the Saline Recreation Center for my work-out. People that normally have their heads down were saying hello. Wow, I thought this most be Spring is here. People are really friendly and nice.

Thursday morning we woke up to S-N-O-W. It has been cold now for the later part of the week and now there is more snow. I listed a house on Wednesday and I had on my sandles, I know because I was sinking in the wet, soggy, backyard taking pictures. The next day I had on my boots again.

And the National Association of Realtors (NAR) thinks they are having a hard time predicting housing outcomes due to strange weather patterns. I can't imagine why ?????????

Unusual weather patterns and problems in the subprime lending marketplace are creating challenges in assessing housing market conditions, but a recovery is likely this year, according to the latest forecast by the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®.

David Lereah, NAR's chief economist, says there's some ambiguity about the current housing market. I agree November and December were fantastic and I have posted before that they were my best months.

According to David Lereach, "Our goal each month is to fine-tune the forecast based on the latest housing data and a variety of economic indicators, but extraordinary weather variations are skewing home sales and clouding the picture," he says. "Underlying trends point to a housing recovery in 2007, but it will take a couple months for us to get a better handle on it. Existing-home sales are expected to slowly improve from what appears to be the cyclical low last fall, but we think there will be some additional pain in the new home market, which hopefully will start to rise later in the year."

For critics who don't understand the weather impact on seasonally-adjusted sales, Lereah says they'll likely be reminded about the consequences throughout this spring.

Here's what's happened and how it's likely to play out: In December, unusually mild weather brought out shoppers and January existing-home sales rose, Lereah explains. "However, a sudden chill in January slowed shopping activity relative to December and pending sales, based on contracts, fell," he says.

The biggest weather impact from February has yet to be seen. "February's winter storms brought markets to a halt in much of the country, and it was the coldest February since 1979 - that should drag sales down in March," Lereah says. "This means we may not see an upturn in closed transactions before May 25 when we report sales for April."

But, I'll say again, "it is GREAT DAY to BUY a HOUSE in ANN ARBOR, MI ". There is no question that the weather does effect the moods and the buying decisions of people. We have all scheduled OPEN HOUSES and then had  a snow storm keep everyone home, or a tornado, or just a dreary gray day can do it. I found it interesting that internally you know these things and it was nice to read about it in REALTOR MAGAZINE.

Well back out in to the elements !