There are just over 6000 foreclosures on the MLS right now. Of the 53,000+ listings on the MLS, over 20,000 are vacant and of those just over 6000 are foreclosures. The exact number of short sales on top of the foreclosures are hard to gauge.

One quarter ago, almost to the day I looked at foreclosures in specific zip codes, and then again last night. Foreclosure notices are up over 20% on average since one quarter ago. The question is how bad will this get before the number of foreclosures start to decrease?

When the financial meltdown on Wallstreet began just under a year ago, the numbers coming out were that the largest percentage of adjustable rate mortgages would adjust in the second quarter of 08. That quarter just passed. There was no specific month given as to which month would be the worst, and it is hard to say how many of these were able to refinance or work out an agreement with the bank. I doubt many could refinance as their comps would come in low. For me the question is with them adjusting in April, May and June, how many have now quit paying their mortgages in May, June and July and how many have been able to hang on for a few more months before they throw in the towel and give up? When will this wave of foreclosures hit the shores of the MLS?

It would appear that if the second quarter had the largest number of ARMs adjust then a few months would have to go by before the home owners realize they can't pay this mortgage and walk away from it. That would take us to June to August. Then after waiting the  minimum of 90 days (the cure period for the loans) the trustee sales would spike through the roof in Sept-Dec. It will then take the banks another quarter to report this to Wall Street....which would leave one to believe the 1st quarter of 09 will probably see the greatest numbers of bank failures.

This of course is only a rough guestimate of when this will completely fall apart but as it looks this may still get a lot uglier folks. But with every dark cloud there is a silver lining. Homes are finally becoming affordable again for the average Joe and they can buy again. Especially first time buyers locked out of the bubble market.

C'est la vie. We have to embrace change, it is the only constant in life.

Get ready for the BUYERS! They are coming faster and faster to pick up the bargains....