Over the past few months I've been predicting a crash in the oil market.  I'm not some economic sage or expert, but like the average person, I'm endowed with a mind and I feed it constantly with information.  Like any market, oil and commodities are dictated by demand.  When economies correct themselves or recede temporarily, then demand in commodities and metals declines.  Case in point is this rush to pour cash into the commodity market.  Real estate has been down since the end of 2007, and so many investors are continuing the party in commodities.  So far it's been great, the prices just go up and up without a end in sight.

But there has been those warning signals that some of these investors have ignored.  Airlines are cutting back flights.  American's are cutting siginficanlty on travel plans.  Everyone is becoming conservation happy with their vehicles.  Consumption is dropping quickly and the rest of the world is feeling the affects of the slow down as well. 

So why are there people in the media still attempting to GIN up the price of oil!  Because it's good business people.  It's just like the real estate market in the summer of 2007.  You had these real estate investment guru's selling, selling, selling, and claiming that the end would never arrive.  But the cost of homes finally reached the ceiling, and borrowers were no longer able to make their payments.  The bubble burst and the money moved to the next best thing.

Folks, if your in Oil right now, it's getting allot like the summer of 2007.  You better reconsider why your in commodities, because that house is built on allot of media hype and futures manipulation.  China after this August is about ready for a major correction, India and Indonesia have had unprecedented growth but are also due for a pause, it just can't keep going up and up everyone.  What goes up eventually comes down.  George Soros and his buddies are ready to make a killing on betting short, and the blood bath is about to begin.  Why don't you think Obama has been that worried about the cost of gasoline.  Other then his country club mentality, he knows privately that things are about to change in a big way.

The big question is how much is the little guy going to lose in oil and gas speculation in the next 12 months.  How many of these new investors in these markets are first timers with their life savings invested?  If I had the money right now, I'd bet short as well.  Time to get out folks..time to get out.....

BTW...Oil fell $6.00 bucks today alone.  With recent articles like yesterdays about the airline's reducing their demand shortly, this reminds me allot of the last time there was such a run up on oil.