"Oil prices fell steeply Thursday, extending this week's decline to more than $14 a barrel, as natural gas prices tumbled and a report suggested that the United States may be establishing a diplomatic presence in Iran" - CNN Business News

It appears that the US Government is finally taking concrete steps to communicate with Iran, the second-largest producing member of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. Press Reports indicate that the U.S. may announce a diplomatic interest section in Tehran (which would mark the first step to a permanent embassy) in less than a month.

Accordingly, if the belief is that there will not be a disruption in the oil supply from Iran, are current prices justified? Does this signal the artifical surge in oil prices is about to reverse? Is the "Oil Bubble" about to burst?

 
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20 Comments on Finally, oil drops $14 a barrel - Is the "Oil Bubble" about to burst?

Well, I'm not getting rid of my 35mpg economy car just yet.....

07/17/2008 02:05 PM by Andrea Mills YourHighlandsCountyAgent (ERA Advantage Realty)


Even if we just let some of the air out, it will be a help.

07/17/2008 02:09 PM by Jim Albano (Prudential Damiano Realty)


I don't know about a bust or not. Will we be happy if the prices return to $3.75 a gallon?

07/17/2008 02:17 PM by Gary Waters - Real Estate Agent Viera Suntree (Century 21 Baytree Realty www.moving2brevard.com)


While it will help...we need to head quickly into solar and wind power before it is too late (if it is not too late already).

07/17/2008 02:22 PM by Team DiMuria, Katy Texas Realtors (Prudential Gary Greene Realtors)


I'm getting a little kick out of this.  The Democrats called for filling of the SPR to stop (Strategic Petroleum Reserve)... President said it would have negligible effect.  Effect is negligible.  President calls for Congress to drop the drilling bans...  They say it will have no effect.  He goes part-way to drop the bans... Oil drops. 

If Congress would open up the OCS and Area 10-02, I bet we would see some more drops, even though oil wouldn't flow for 3-5 years (not the 10-14 that Congressional Democrats claim).

07/17/2008 02:30 PM by Lane Bailey - REALTOR & Car Guy (Diamond Dwellings Realty)


I think you have your cheerleading outfit on for the pro-oil boys if your celebrating now, oil is where it was in mid JUNE of 2008 not JUNE 2007 or JUNE 1999. I think Iran or Syria will be attacked this year and oil will skyrocket. Water ,Oil , Gold are the ones to watch.

Bottomline Fuel cells have always been the answer but the men behind the curtain don't want the infastructure for it. And they make the calls in Europe and here, not voters. Rockefeller and Rothschild are behind the media and what you we watch. The trillion dollar question is who is buying all the oil if you think there is a bubble...?

07/17/2008 02:33 PM by Jeff Moore (La Florida Coastal Properties LLC)


Lane - If this wasn't so serious it would sound like a comedy.

Jeff - It is widely believed that the increase in the price of oil is largely attributable to speculators and not because of the actual forces of supply and demand.

07/17/2008 04:23 PM by Stewart Penn - West Hollywood Condo Specialist (Penn Properties)


Hmmm.  Real estate drops 10% and the world is beginning to end.  the stock market drops 10% and it is THE front page story.  Oil drops 10$ in 5 days, and it means nothing. 

Sorry, but I don't go into the conspiracy theories. 

The reason oil could drop is that there is a delicate balance.  If price increases significantly impact demand, supply will outpace demand.  If the US decided that they are going to drill, supply could outpace demand.  If major economies find ways to produce energy without oil, supply can outpace demand. 

OPEC will cut production to some extent, but when they cut production, they also cut income.  So, while they want to keep the price up, if someone else is willing to take up their slack, they will keep pumping because they need the money. 

The US currently is importing about 14 of its 21 million barrels of oil each day.  Between ANWR (Area 10-02), the OCS, Florida Gulf, MT, ND, CA coast and VA coast, we could up our current production from 7-8 million barrels up to around 14-15 million barrels.  That would cut our imports in half... which would also strengthen the dollar.  It would also mean that the oil we would be importing would be coming primarily from Canada and Mexico... much less of a supply problem. 

As to the "trillion dollar question", it is speculation.  There are traders that are willing to buy futures between themselves over and over... because it keeps going up.  But, when there is a wrinkle, and some of the traders decide they aren't willing to play anymore... the pool gets smaller.  Just like flippers in real estate.  There are getting to be fewer traders willing to play, because many are thinking that things are getting out of hand... and none of them want to be the guy that bought for $140/bbl when the market decides that $90/bbl or $50/bbl or $110/bbl is more reasonable... 

And, since the industry experts think the US could bring oil online in 3-5 years, the bag is almost in sight...

07/17/2008 04:23 PM by Lane Bailey - REALTOR & Car Guy (Diamond Dwellings Realty)


Hi Stewart,

I hope the prices go down before winter hits.

All the best!

07/17/2008 07:01 PM by Kevin O'Shea, White Plains, NY Real Estate (Homes of Westchester, Inc.)


Stewart... When the oil price comes down on the barrel, gas prices remain the same here in CT. When the price of oil goes up... yup, you got it.. the price does too.

07/17/2008 08:23 PM by Valerie Osterhoudt (Johnson Real Estate, Inc.)


The consumer prices are always fast to rise on the bad news, but slow to respond to positive indicators.  That's they way it has always been.

07/17/2008 11:12 PM by Steve Shatsky - Dallas Real Estate & Short Sale Specialist (Keller Williams-Dallas City Center)


Inventory report shows higher-than-expected stockpiles of crude and gasoline, as demand for oil products slumps - CNN 7/23/08

With the oil price around $125 a barrel today, it appears that consumer demand is declining.

07/23/2008 01:22 PM by Stewart Penn - West Hollywood Condo Specialist (Penn Properties)


So just when is Bush going to "jawbone the leaders in the Middle East" and have them "open up their spigots?" Guess never. Maybe he meant he was going to jabone the leaders of the East Coast and ask them to open up their waters to drilling. No way, no how off the coast of Massachusetts.

Why can't Big Oil drill on the millions of acres they already lease? According to Forbes magazine, a record 1.6 million barrels a day in U.S. refined petroleum products were exported during the first four months of this year, up 33 percent from 1.2 million barrels a day over the same period in 2007. Shipments this February topped 1.8 million barrels a day for the first time during any month, according to final numbers from the Energy Department.

Could SOMEONE explain this?

07/29/2008 09:35 PM by Scott Smith - Gloucester & Rockport, Massachusetts (Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage)


Demand for oil in the Us is down 4% according to cnn. There is a glut of oil backing up in ports around the world, there isn't enough space to store it according to Donald Trump. George Bush and his friends can not keep the price of oil up indefinately and we are starting to see the decline now. I hope when he leaves office more of the truth of his involement in the manipulation of oil prices comes out. Like most republicans, he won't get caught for the crimes, he'll get caught for the cover-up. Just like Ted Stevens, Richard Milhouse Nixon and others too numerous to mention.

07/30/2008 09:11 AM by John Guiney e-PRO, CBR (Keller Williams Realty)


Our area is booming in Oil and Gas exploration and drilling activities.. All of the experts in the O and G industry tell me that the supply of natural gas in Texas now exceeds the pipeline capacities. With  even the threat of opening up offshore drilling and other restricted areas pending, I personally believe it is causing some of the decline in price..... I hope the bubble bursts but I also hope Americans hear the wake up call and tell congress to let us explore and drill domestically.

07/30/2008 10:18 AM by Trey Thurmond, College Station , Texas Homes (Classic Realty Inc./GMAC Real Estate)


This all reminds me of a story I read on Fort Knox. It told of all the Gold bullion that is stored there. It also siad that over 85% of the known gold in this country not in private hands is still in the ground at various Government owned lands. It is cheaper to protect this way, I believe that we have a similar situation with oil in this country and I do not just mean the oil shale in coloradop but the good light sweet crude as well.

07/30/2008 10:34 AM by John Guiney e-PRO, CBR (Keller Williams Realty)


If the oil bubble bursts, will we have learned anything though? Or will we go right back to driving alone in our gas-guzzling 8-passenger SUV each time we go to visit the next-door neighbor???

07/31/2008 10:31 PM by Laura Warden (Choices Real Estate)


Stewart, oil prices are finally hitting a pullback of a massive upswing in the last few years. We should see a natural pullback, some resistance and who knows what the bottom may be for now. The "new low" alternative analysts are saying at 90-115 a barrel, before trending back to 150-200. Scary? Well our dollar is weak because of Fiat money and our economy so Chicken Little has checked out and reality has finally set in. China and India have the pumps set on 24/7 and building more pumps daily. We are hosed unless we can figure out an alternative source. I think Branson from the Virgin Group has said it best. We need cellulous fuel or some alternative vehicle 90/10 not 10/90. Bueller? Bueller? Anyone?

08/01/2008 03:20 AM by Ryan Trask (3plains LLC)


Laura - After the Oil Crisis in the 1970's one would have thought car manufactureres and consumers would have learned a lesson - yet SUV's only became popular in the 1990's and became the most popular vehicles in America.

Will we ever learn?

08/01/2008 12:18 PM by Stewart Penn - West Hollywood Condo Specialist (Penn Properties)


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Real Estate Agent: Stewart Penn - West Hollywood Condo Specialist (Penn Properties)
Stewart Penn - West Hollywood Condo Specialist
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