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We do a lot of work in the relocation industry (corporate moves and affinity relationships) and recently we were sent a request for information that I felt would make a great basis for a real estate blog for Tallahassee housing.

We are the principal broker for the Cartus Relocation Network in Tallahassee and they refer a lot of business to our residential office. They informed us that a customer is moving an employee from Pennsylvania to Tallahassee and was curious about price movements in the Tallahassee real estate market. Here is the message that we received:

In an effort to offset any market value impact created by a relocation to Tallahassee, our client has asked Cartus to assist with some metrics. We have a transferee who owns a 3000 sq.ft home in Lakawanna PA. His January appraisal was $319K and his June appraisal was $282,500. Our client is asking if there has been a defined % of decrease in the sale price of a typical 3000 sq. ft home in Tallahassee between January and June.

Thanks for any assistance you can provide.

Best Regards

xxxxx

This is a great question and really got me thinking about how to best answer and to provide the kind of information that the client is seeking. The quick answer would be to tell them that housing prices have declined slightly, but I wanted to give them a clearer picture of the market. I figured we could take a look at homes +/- 10% in size from 3,000 square feet and then graph the sales over the past six months (and beyond). Here is the graph of 3000 square foot homes in Tallahassee:

3000 Square Foot Homes Show Slight Decline In Value

The short answer to the question that we received is that 3000 square foot homes in Tallahassee have seen a very slight decline from January through June (less than 1/2%, much better than the Lakawanna market).

Of course, this exercise got me thinking about all the other information that could be derived from this type of analysis. I decided to take all the home sales in Leon County (Tallahassee real estate market) from the Tallahassee MLS and break them down into five size groups (1000,2000,3000,4000 & 5000 square feet). For example, the 2000 square foot homes in Tallahassee group was compiled from all homes sized from 1800 to 2200 square feet.

Category
Low End of Size Range
High End of Size Range
Homes Measured
1,000 Square Feet
900
1,100
1,539
2,000 Square Feet
1,800
2,200
4,710
3,000 Square Feet
2,700
3,300
1319
4,000 Square Feet
3,600
4,400
441
5,000 Square Feet
4,500
5,500
123


The first graph shows the unit sales trend, which basically means how many homes per month each category has been averaging over the past year. This graph does a great job of showing how dominant the 2000 square foot home category is in Tallahassee. It also shows that the number of homes selling each month continues to trend down and our current rate of sales is the lowest on this graph which dates back to 2001.

Home Sales Slowest in Eight Years

The second graph shows the average price trend of homes in Tallahassee. This graph shows the shows the price-running up for the years of 2004 to 2006, and the falling of prices since. Thus far, the average price has not dropped greatly.

Housing Prices On A Slow Decline

The next graph shows the price per square foot movement in each category. I believe this graph gives us the clearest picture of price movement in the Tallahassee real estate market.

Cost of Homes Lower Than Past

This final graph takes each of the three prior graphs and reports how each category has responded to the changing market from the top of the market forward. It demonstrates that since the market peaked a few years ago, the price and price per square foot trend is down from 2% for the average 3,000 square foot home to as much as 8% for the average 4,000 square foot home. Compared with the rest of the Country (and certainly with the rest of Florida, this is truly a slight decline in housing prices). It also demonstrates that unit sales are down from 25% for 5,000 square foot homes to as much as 46% for 1,000 square foot homes.

A Clear Picture Is Forming On Receding Home Prices

I hope these graphs give the reader a better understanding of what is going on in the Tallahassee real estate market. Sometimes the reports of numbers is just too confounding and it takes a picture to clarify the actual report.

This blog was the second blog posting in a row in which readers’ questions determined the subject. Please continue to post comments and make suggestions as to how we can make the Tallahassee Real Estate Blog more valuable to our readers.


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Keep checking out the Tallahassee Real Estate Blog every day for updates that include charts, graphs, and analysis of the Tallahassee real estate market.

If you like this Article then please subscribe to my blog through a full RSS feed, or you can Subscribe with Bloglines . You will be able to stay informed about the happenings in the Tallahassee Real Estate Market. You can also subscribe to this blog and have it delivered by Email.

Joe Manausa is a real estate investor and the Broker and Co-Owner of Century 21 First Realty. He can be reached via e-mail through the Tallahassee Real Estate Website or catch his latest writings on the Tallahassee Florida Real Estate Blog , or by calling (850) 386-2001.

View Joe Manausa's profile on LinkedIn

 
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45 Comments on What Has Happened To The 3000 Square Foot Home Values?

JUL
19
2008
193,781 Points Localism Sponsor Outside Blog

Wow, what an extensive analysis - how long did this take you?

11:50am • #1
511,758 Points 41 Featured Posts Outside Blog Called Shot Master

Thanks Lisa. I started at about 6:30 this morning and posted first draft around 11:00, but the idea has been "in my head" for a few days.

11:59am • #2
277,828 Points 45 Featured Posts Outside Blog

I have noticed here in WA, from buyers themselves, a trend toward wanting less space.  I think it is a trend toward being less greedy and minimizing ones wants and desires to be part of a new conservatism.  There is almost a war against "McMansions".

12:27pm • #3
276,126 Points 1 Featured Post Outside Blog

Very informative blog.  You have certainly done your homework.  Great job!

12:29pm • #4

Joe - Great blog --- very informative - and I think these will be useful with my new client that is moving here from Maryland.  Great timing!  Thanks!

12:43pm • #5
511,758 Points 41 Featured Posts Outside Blog Called Shot Master

Thanks Ardell. Maybe they are just trying to save some money...

3:53pm • #6
511,758 Points 41 Featured Posts Outside Blog Called Shot Master

Thanks Tim.

3:53pm • #7
Localism Sponsor

Joe, What a great looking, thorough report. Were your charts done in Excel? If so, how did you convert them to postable images? I've spent all afternoon trying to figure out how to get my charts posted to my first market report and am clueless (any suggestions, anyone?) Help!

7:03pm • #8
511,758 Points 41 Featured Posts Outside Blog Called Shot Master

Thanks Lisa. Once you have your graph prepared, I recommend just using a free screen capture tool to turn it into a .gif file. I use Screen Hunter by Wisdom Soft. Good luck.

7:34pm • #9
511,758 Points 41 Featured Posts Outside Blog Called Shot Master

Thanks Eva. Let me know if they need anything else.

7:35pm • #10

Wow, you really did your homework on this blog----it must have taken you an inordinate amount of time.  Actually, you probably could have broken it into several blogs.

7:37pm • #11
511,758 Points 41 Featured Posts Outside Blog Called Shot Master

Thanks Diane. You're probably right about breaking it into a few different entries. Bite size pieces...

8:21pm • #12
JUL
20
2008

Joe - what might be an interesting spin is to do the analysis with a gas vs oil breakdown. With oil prices skyrocking heating these homes in the winter is going to cost twice as much as last year especially for oil heat. Nice work!

5:30pm • #13
511,758 Points 41 Featured Posts Outside Blog Called Shot Master

IMNJ you're probably right for up there. Here, we only have a few cold nights a year. It's the cooling in the summer that gets so costly....like right now.

5:34pm • #14
250,060 Points 17 Featured Posts Localism Sponsor

Wow, You did a superb job with this post.  I love the graphs, makes it a lot easier to see the trends.

6:14pm • #15
511,758 Points 41 Featured Posts Outside Blog Called Shot Master

Thanks Ricki.  I have a hard time following data and drawing a conclusion without seeing it in a graphical format.

6:38pm • #16
JUL
21
2008
Localism Sponsor

Joe, I really appreciate the tip re: Screen Hunter. With your help, I just posted my first market report -- with charts. (I still have a few bugs to work out--like picking an easier-to-read typeface...) But at least it's a start. And to think it only took four days of prepwork. Wish I had seen your video first!

1:14pm • #17
511,758 Points 41 Featured Posts Outside Blog Called Shot Master

You're welcome Lisa. I'm heading over to your blog to check them out right now.

2:17pm • #18
NOV
27
2008
NOV
28
2008
NOV
29
2008
NOV
30
2008
1 Featured Post

This is a great answer to a really tough question. I really enjoyed this post.

11:38am • #29
DEC
01
2008
202,237 Points 3 Featured Posts Outside Blog Hit Router

From an energy standpoint alone, money, time, energy, water, etc...people are opting for smaller homes with more green features.  I think the trend everywhere is going to be downsizing, rather than the upsizing we've seen in recent years.  We have a couple of communities that'll be in big trouble when it comes as they are new communities built for the 3000 - 5000 square foot demographic.  What happens when that changes?  good question.

3:48am • #32
DEC
02
2008
DEC
03
2008
511,758 Points 41 Featured Posts Outside Blog Called Shot Master

Thanks for the great feedback Terrylynn. I agree with you too. Lots of "big" houses that will be left out.

5:35pm • #40
511,758 Points 41 Featured Posts Outside Blog Called Shot Master

Thank you Sharon!

5:37pm • #41
DEC
04
2008

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Joe Manausa - Tallahassee Real Estate

Tallahassee, FL

More about me…

Century 21 First Realty

Address: 1140 Capital Circle SE, Suite #12, Tallahassee, FL, 32301

Office Phone: (850) 386-2001

Cell Phone: (850) 508-1544

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