I have posted a chart for Contra Costa County Real Estate Foreclosure Sales from December 2001 through May 2008. This chart uses a 12-month moving average of data sourced.
How to read this chart: when the market momentum reading falls from above the "0" line to below the "0" line, this signals that the trend in foreclosure sales changes from an uptrend to a downtrend. Fewer foreclosure sales are a positive sign for the market and the local economy.
When the marketing momentum reading climbs from below the "0" line to above the "0" line, this signals a trend in foreclosure sales has changed from a downtrend to an uptrend. A negative sign for a weakening local economy.This chart is one of five key real estate indicators called "vital signs" used to track local real estate market trends. Foreclosure sales (REO's) is Vital Sign #4.
"The Campbell Method" is a proven system for buying and selling real estate for maximum profits. Based on five key real estate indicators- called "Vital Signs" - The Campbell Method is a clearly defined approach to real estate investing that shows you how to anticipate the peaks and valleys of real estate cycles with incredible accuracy. These Vital Signs act as "leading indicators" and give you as much as 3 to 6 months advance notice to the direction real estate prices are likely to take, long before it becomes obvious to the general public.
I recommend that you purchase and read the book "Timing the Real Estate Market"- Robert Campbell. Log on to http://www.realestatetiming.com/ to learn about The Campbell Method, purchase the book and Market Momentum software.
Here is what Timing the Real Estate Market shows you...
How to identify the best time to buy a home- and the best time to sell
How to maximize real estate investment profits - and avoid losses
How to identify the sweet spot in real estate cycles - where the prices can go full throttle through the roof
How to identify the four stages of all real estate cycles - and position yourself to have an overwhelming advantage when you buy and sell
How to read the signals that tell you when the market is about to change
How to avoid real estate's single biggest mistake
Ten cardinal rules to follow - that guarantee optimal real estate success
Why economists and market forecasters are usually dead wrong.
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Great post Pete. Thank you for this fantastic information. We post a similar momentum chart on our blog as well, only it's based on sales, housing permits, and the current 30 year fixed rate. It may be just one of the 5 vital factors that you mention here. Best of luck.