It was during March of 2006 and I was headed to another real estate convention in Las Vegas. It seemed like our company conventions were always held there. I think the person at our corporate office who was in charge of site selections had some sort of personal relationship with Vegas. Could have been Blackjack, Craps, Texas Hold-em, or maybe they just loved the buffets and the free drinks. Maybe it was all those lights! Come to think of it, it was probably just close to home and they didn't have to spend all that money on travel. Anyway, as usual, I elected to take the long way there: the stop over thing...the connecting flight gig to save money, that I was going to undoubtedly leave in Vegas anyway. Well, Denver is as good a place to stop as any. The view of the Rockies from the club car on a clear day always spurs on a good day dream or two with me and it helps while the time away until the next flights boarding call. I found my self browsing the book shop and while I usually never buy anything, picked up a book titled 'Sell Now - The End of the Housing Bubble' authored by John R. Talbott. Because it was real estate related and I WAS going to a real estate convention, I purchased the 190 page paperback for an astounding $19.95 in U.S. airport dollars. "This better be a good Read" I thought. I finished the first chapter before boarding my flight and the next two before we lifted off. Now, this nonfiction piece, written in an unemotional, almost detached speaking, did in fact appear completely objective and rational. For a dry read, it was like looking into a fogged up crystal ball that became clearer with the turn of every page. I read half of the book before we disembarked the plane and stowed it in my carry on, to be finished at my next earliest convenience. From here, I will spare you all the geeky and nerdy details and just say that Mr. Talbot was a prophet. Not in the sense that he was predicting the future of the U.S. housing market, but Japans past. WOW! Page after page, chart after chart, graph after graph. Now I could see it! On the return trip home, I came to the realization that what I have almost learned could have implications, even in our market where appreciation barely exceeds the annual cost of living index. How was I supposed to convey the information that Mr. Talbot just managed to torture my mind with. I would show up in Tupelo Ms, and proclaim the sky is falling and everyone would believe me and I would be a hero of sorts. A Parade! Interviews. All the fanfare one could want and then, instant success. Or...I could be declared the V.I. (village idiot). For some time, I figured it could be as simple as a coin toss. Hero or Idiot that is. After having left more money than I wanted to in Vegas and, as it related to my odds of winning, I thought I'd better play it safe. My career and sain reputation was way to much to gamble with. So I returned from the convention, shared with my agents, all the newest and latest and greatest insighful stuff that a company can through at you in three days time. It wasn't until the next weeks sales meeting that I presented the book and my findings to the agents in the office. The immediate response was predictable. "Do we have to read it?" "That will never happen in our market!" And bla, bla, bla, bla, bla..... I left the book out, available to all or anyone who might pick it up and maybe read even a chapter or two. But there it sat on the table's bottom shelf, in plain view of all, until, you guessed it, the market crashed...some 20 months later. Recently, I dusted the book off and placed it in the bookcase in my office where it will become only a testimonial to the words I only wish I could say. "I told You So!" Only John R. Talbot has that right.
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