First a review of where we came from. For Burlington, the market volume and prices peaked in 2004, at an annual median price of $420,000. Prices have shown only a 1% pullback since that time. The number of homes sold in 2004 was 213. In 2007, 171 homes sold so the volume has fallen off 20%. So far in the first half of 2008 there have only been 62 sales, so the market volume is low.

There is a weak seasonal effect on the Burlington market with Q1 (Jan, Feb, Mar) being the low and Q4 (Oct, Nov, Dec) being somewhat weak also. This seasonality should be taken into account when looking at any monthly data. 2008 Q1 volume was very low, but Q2 was stronger so the strong summer trend seems to be holding.

Generally there have been fewer homes on the market this year. With sellers holding homes off the market and thereby restricting the supply, it is seems unlikely that any drop in prices will occur. General economic forecasts seem to hold that 2008 will see the bottom for this cycle, further supporting this view. Real estate markets tend to a 7 year cycle, so with a peak in 2004 it can be expected that the bottom should be in 2008.

What this means for homeowners in the near term is that there is still demand for homes and that while sale prices will be down marginally from 2004 highs Burlington continues to be a stable market. Homeowners who purchased more than 4 or 5 years ago still have significant equity, those having purchased or re-financed recently unfortunately will likely not see price appreciation until 2009 and beyond.

Now for the summary of July results, and where we are today. In the Burlington Single Family market, there are now only 56 properties currently listed. This represents a 31% lower inventory than the same time last year. The median sales price rose again in July to over $400,000 for the first time in 2008. Although, the sales volume faltered slightly with only 9 homes sold down 31% from June and the same period last year. The average time on market for properties to sell stayed reasonable at 89 days.  Currently we have only a 6 month supply of property which indicates that the Burlington market remains in favor of sellers. August seasonal demand should remain reasonable so we will have to see how the sales volume develops.

For anyone interested in seeing the graphs and numbers behind these comments please go to my website www.MikesREALSolutions.com and look in the community for which you are interested. The reports are available for download as a .pdf file. You can e-mail me at Mike@ MikesREALSolutions.com with any questions.