First a review of where we came from. For Waltham, the market volume and prices peaked in 2005, at an annual median price of $435,000. Prices have shown about a 5% pullback since that time. The number of homes sold in 2005 was 337. In 2007, 269 homes sold so the volume has fallen off 20%. So far in the first half of 2008 there have only been 119 sales, so the market volume is low.

There is a seasonal effect on the Waltham market with Q1 (Jan, Feb, Mar) and Q4 (Oct, Nov, Dec) being the volume lows. This seasonality should be taken into account when looking at any monthly data. 2008 Q1 volume was very low, but Q2 was stronger so the strong summer trend seems to be holding.

Generally there have been fewer homes on the market this year. With sellers holding homes off the market and thereby restricting the supply, it is seems unlikely that any significant drop in prices will occur. General economic forecasts seem to hold that 2008 will see the bottom for this cycle, further supporting this view. Real estate markets tend to a 7 year cycle, so with a peak in 2005 it can be expected that the bottom should be in 2008-2009.

What this means for homeowners in the near term is that there is still demand for homes and that while sale prices will be down marginally from 2005 highs Waltham continues to be a stable market. Homeowners who purchased more than 4 or 5 years ago still have significant equity, those having purchased or re-financed recently unfortunately will likely not see price appreciation until 2009 and beyond.

Now for the summary of July results, and where we are today. In the Waltham Single Family market, there were 90 properties listed August 1. This represents a 10% decrease in inventory from the same time last year. The median sales price gave back some of the June increase but remained at $400,000 up from the May lows. In July the time on market dropped further to only 43 days, a strong positive indicator. The number of sales was 32. This is down slightly from June and 22% lower volume than last July, but with reduced supply not too bad. Currently we have only a 2.8 month supply of homes for sale which indicates that the Waltham market remains in favor of those selling property.  With such a tight supply we should see stronger pricing in August for the Waltham market.

It should be noted that approximately 10% of the homes on the market are distressed properties, Bank owned or Short Sales, so prices may experience some drag.

 For anyone interested in seeing the graphs and numbers behind these comments please go to my website www.MikesREALSolutions.com and look in the community for which you are interested. The reports are available for download as a .pdf file. You can e-mail me at Mike@ MikesREALSolutions.com with any questions.