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This won't be new news to any of you listing agents working with frustrated sellers, but most homeowners haven't adjusted their expectations of value yet. Everyone realizes that house values have declined; but no one wants to believe that their home has declined in value. Here's the data from ZillowBlog to prove just how delusional homeowners are when they ask themselves "what is my house worth?":

  • 62% of U.S. Homeowners believe their home’s value has increased or stayed the same in the past year. In reality, 77% of U.S. homes have declined in value over the past 12 months.
  • While only 38% of homeowners think their home has declined in value, about 77% of homes actually have declined in the last year
  • People living in the West seem to be a little more realistic, with 44% believing their home’s value has increased (28%) or stayed the same (16%); however more homes in the West have lost value, with 88% of Western homes declining over the past year.

 

 

 

 

Here's today's front page of the San Francisco Chronicle business section:

 

 

 

 

 

If you’d like to learn more about what’s happening to real estate prices in your area, next week we’ll release our Q2 Real Estate Market Reports, which chart home value changes for 165 metropolitan statistical areas, the largest report of its kind. New this quarter, we’ll also look at % of homes sold for a loss, and % of home sales that were foreclosures.

You can tune in to our Q2 Market Reports Conference Call on August 12 at 11am PT, to hear Dr. Stan Humphries discuss these reports as well as some more findings from today’s survey. To sign up for the Web version of this call, visit here. Or, you can dial in directly at 1-800-240-2430.

 

 
This post has been included in Washington Information
Post is included in group: Realtors®

35 Comments on Homeowners are delusional

When someone sells their home the neighbors all encourage them to sell for more. (conflict of interest)  I had a client tell me that all of his neighbors believed his home was worth over $1 Million.  Unfortunately they did not have the most valuable home in a a neighborhood that the highest closing in history was about $800,000.

08/06/2008 01:04 PM by Randy L. Prothero - Hawaii REALTOR® (Century 21 Liberty Homes)


Everyday in the Real Estate Marketplace, I encounter sellers that need to be educated on actual property valuations. It has been my experience that since people were purchasing during the housing boom, the appraisals performed were at least questionable. The justification for them was always the overwhelming sense that property values would continue to climb. Now that the appraisals are being more carefully screened, the values tend to be more in line with past real estate performance indices. While sellers may be tempted to overprice their property based on the belief that the value has either remained the same or improved, I gently remind them that in the current economic climate the price is determined by what the buyer, the appraiser and the bank is willing to pay, approve and ultimately spend.

08/06/2008 01:33 PM by Darnell Fowler


Spencer:  your quote

  • 62% of U.S. Homeowners believe their home's value has increased or stayed the same in the past year. In reality, 77% of U.S. homes have declined in value over the past 12 months.
  • While only 38% of homeowners think their home has declined in value, about 77% of homes actually have declined in the last year
  •  

    That is right on it.  People do not understand that some areas have seen a decline and others have been flat.

    08/06/2008 01:48 PM by Tim and Pam Cash - Clarksville TN Real Estate Professionals (Crye-Leike (Sango))


    Interesting post, Maybe I can use this to keep my clients real..

    08/06/2008 08:29 PM by Karl Nettgen (Century 21 Agate Realty)


    I had one of those types on a listing appt. recently.  Its all good.

    08/06/2008 08:30 PM by Chuck Carstensen (Re/max Associates Plus/The Discovery Coach)


    Great stats!  I am having the same issue as i'm sure most of you are.  It all comes down to educating the sellers from the very start.

    08/06/2008 08:31 PM by Lee Stiber (Keller Williams Real Estate)


    A neighbor has an uncanny knack for keeping his house just about $100k over the market.  He follows the market down - like walking downstairs.  

    08/06/2008 08:38 PM by Bill Gillhespy Fort Myers Beach Realtor (Century 21 Tripower Realty)


    Has anybody else been brave enough to do a CMA on their own home?  Scary stuff

    08/06/2008 08:44 PM by Marc Baysek-EXIT Realty Rockingham NC (EXIT Realty Platinum)


    What's unfortunate is losing listings because of being honest...

    08/06/2008 09:21 PM by Las Vegas Real Estate - Paul Francis, ABR,CRS (Prudential Americana Group)


    Spencer,  Very interesting post.  I agree with Paul, with peoples expectations and perceptions be skewed, I hate losing listings for being honest.  By I do it anyway.  Mike

    08/06/2008 09:29 PM by Mike Miller (Howard Hanna Real Estate Services, Inc.)


    When you are talking about the value of people's homes, you end up dealing with a lot of emotion on the seller's side. This makes it even harder to drive the point home.

    08/06/2008 09:37 PM by Karl Burger - Pensacola Real Estate News (ERA Beach Ball Realty)


    am thinking that those who think their home has not lost value also think that the answer to the energy crisis is offshore drilling...  perception as we know is not necesarily real, but it is reality.

    thanks for doing this post

    08/06/2008 09:41 PM by Gary Bolen (CRS) Lake Tahoe Real Estate Information (Dickson Realty - South Lake Tahoe)


    Real Estate is LOCAL and this is a prime example....the East coast, particularly the Metro or Tri-State area has had adjustments in the resale of homes but on a town by town basis....actual SOLD comps show prices have stayed the same. It all depends on the town or the inventory...here.

    08/06/2008 09:45 PM by Pamela STETSON (Abbott & Caserta Realtors)


    People are still living the dream............ and still dreaming

    08/06/2008 09:52 PM by Michael Eisenberg, Bellingham Realtor (Fairhaven Realty)


    Spencer:

    I know that I was pretty hard on you guys in the beginning but I can't even begin to tell you how valuable your data has been to me since moving to Bellevue.  Thanks for the update and I am looking forward to your 2nd Quarter stats...I plan to compare them against the ones from OFHEO. 

    08/06/2008 09:52 PM by Jessica Horton (Jessica Horton & Assoc.)


    This certainly is still a problem in New Hampshire.  I have had buyers not be able to get offers accepted the the sellers simply won't face realty!  I don't know how they will ever be convinced.  Hopefully, you report will help.

    08/06/2008 09:54 PM by Joan Whitebook, ABR, e-Pro, CEBA (Buyer's Option Realty Services)


    For example - see - www.realstorynj.com

    The Garden State continues to offer real estate opportunities that are worth exploring.

    • While other states have seen home prices plummet, homes in New Jersey have generally maintained their value. The chart below compares the first quarter median sales price of existing single-family homes in 2007 and 2008 within New Jersey metropolitan statistical areas (MSA) to other areas throughout the nation.

    MSA

    1st Quarter 2007

    1st Quarter 2008

    Percent Change (%)

    Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ $247,300 $237,000 -4.2

    Atlanta-Sandy Springs- Marietta, GA

    $170,400

    $154,000

    -9.6

    Atlantic City, NJ

    $264,600

    $277,400

    +4.8

    Camden, NJ-Philadelphia, PA

    $222,500

    $220,900

    -0.7

    Edison, NJ-NY

    $363,500

    $361,200

    -0.6

    Grand Rapids, MI

    $129,700

    $102,800

    -20.7

    Las Vegas-Paradise, NV

    $310,100

    $247,600

    -20.2

    Miami-Ft. Lauderdale-Miami Beach, FL

    $385,300

    $318,900

    -17.2

    Newark, NJ-NY-PA

    $423,700

    $409,300

    -3.4

    Northern NJ-NY-Long Island

    $463,700

    $445,400

    -3.9

    Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ

    $262,500

    $222,200

    -15.4

    San Diego-Carlsbad- San Marcos, CA

    $595,200

    $459,000

    -22.9

    Trenton-Ewing, NJ

    $283,800

    $288,200

    +1.6

    Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV

    $427,800

    $371,800

    -13.1

    Wayne, NJ-NY-White Plains

    $521,400

    $491,900

    -5.7

    Source: National Association of REALTORS®  --- www.realstorynj.com

    08/06/2008 10:02 PM by Pamela STETSON (Abbott & Caserta Realtors)


    AND, I agree that anyone listing their home should listen to the actual market comps...not their neighbors...thnks for the post.

    08/06/2008 10:03 PM by Pamela STETSON (Abbott & Caserta Realtors)


    Yes indeed - delusional is the perfect word and behind that is in denial living in fantasy-land.

    If only sellers understood how much more it is costing them to hold on so tightly to their belief that THEIR house IS worth that much even when there is no data, and certainly no offers, to support it.

    08/06/2008 10:10 PM by Kathleen Daniels (San Jose ~ Silicon Valley Real Estate )


    Interest post and it looks as if it so true.  yes, delusional is a perfect term unless they are going to disneyland.

    08/06/2008 11:42 PM by Pam Winterbauer ~ 2006 REALTOR® of the Year (Windermere Welcome Home)


    Oh you have so hit the nail on the head!

    08/06/2008 11:46 PM by Pam Jank (Coldwell Banker Schneidmiller Realty)


    Real Estate values not going down mean they are worth exploring???.. That certainly sounds delusional.. especially when the median price of a home is cheaper in Las Vegas then Trenton or Atlantic City...

    08/06/2008 11:58 PM by Las Vegas Real Estate - Paul Francis, ABR,CRS (Prudential Americana Group)


    Oh, you have so hit the nail on the head on this one! Thanks for putting it in perspective.

    08/07/2008 12:03 AM by Pam Jank (Coldwell Banker Schneidmiller Realty)


    Spencer,

    This post, in my personal opinion is your best blog post ever!  This is such accurate useful information, and would be so helpful to me in my daily challenges with Borrowers and their unrealistic thoughts about the market.  I would like to share your graph and perhaps your entire post with several of my current Borrowers.  May I have your permission to do so?  Please let me know... Thank you again for the information...

     

    Tiffany Taylor

    Founder/CEO

    Platinum Funding Group Inc.

     

    08/07/2008 12:12 AM by Platinum Funding


    Thanks for all of your great comments. Yes Tiffany you may of course share this post and any other that you'd like. Here is a link to all of the data.

    08/07/2008 12:20 AM by Spencer Rascoff (Zillow)


    You are right. It's sad but true. Many home owners simply do not want to believe "their" home cold have declined.

    08/07/2008 01:56 AM by Bob & Carolin Benjamin - E Phoenix Arizona Real Estate (The Benjamin Team - Keller Williams Integrity First Realty )


    Spencer, Yes there are some delusional sellers out there, in Mi since we have been in a down turn before the rest of the country with the "big 3" restructuring, most of the ones are realistic. If not they get a dose of reality when we meet. If they still don't get it, I just don't take the listing, too frustrating, when I know it "just ain't gonna happen".

    08/07/2008 06:58 AM by Missy Caulk Ann Arbor Realtor Ann Arbor Real Estate (Keller Williams Ann Arbor)


    Few sellers have taken the mandatory dose of reality in pricing their homes...we refuse to "buy" a listing using a price that the seller "have to" have...and I sincerely question the ethics of the realtors who do...that should be a violation of some sort of realtor oath if not our ethics code, hmmm ?

    08/07/2008 07:26 AM by Sally & David Hanson, Southeastern Wisconsin Realtors (First Weber Group)


    OMG Spencer...

    I never made it past the title just cuzz I'm laughing so hard :)

    Delusional? Indeed :)

    TLW...ROAR!

    08/07/2008 07:59 AM by "The Lovely Wife"...Broker Bryant's Wife... (Co-Owner Tutas Towne Realty, Inc.)


    And WHY shouldn't homeowners be delusional?  WE are telling tham that values aren't decreasing.  Seriously.  Real estate agents all over the country are buying into the NAR line that all real estate is local and that the big declines are isolated to Florida, Nevada and California... and the Northeast... but everyone else is ok.  And if you read a lot of agent web pages and listen to the Realtorsauruses, they will tell you that it is the best year ever...  And most of them are just poop pumps... they don't even look at the local numbers. 

    08/07/2008 08:53 AM by Lane Bailey - REALTOR & Car Guy (Diamond Dwellings Realty)


    I for one am not a fan of Zillow's market stats especially in my area of Northwest Suburban Chicago.  If you guys use the closed recorded deeds from our area that makes your report a minimum of 6 months or more behind the curve or the times.  Anything you get from there is already "ancient history".  You don't even sell real estate but I guess thanks for your opinion?

    08/07/2008 05:03 PM by Lyn Sims - Northwest Suburban Chicago Homes (RE/MAX Suburban)


    Hey Lyn-  Spencer's point that home owners don't have accurate perceptions of whether their home is gaining/losing value is a result of a Harris Interactiveconducted poll of 1,361 homeowners.  This data has nothing to do with Zillow's numbers. 

    He then compared that to what is actually happening based on Zillow's Quarterly Home Value reports.  These market reports are not based on closed recorded deeds, as you mention in your comment, but rather the Zillow Home Value Index.  To get this index we generate valuation several times a week on more than 67 million homes, calculating historical values back to 1997, and then aggregate these valuations into indexes at the neighborhood, ZIP, city, county, metro, and national levels.  So the number isn't solely tied to a data set of closed transactions, but rather what all homes (whether for sale or not) are doing with respect to fluctuating values. 

    (for a comprehensive explanation of the Zillow Home Value Index methodology compared to that OFHEO and Case-Shiller Indexes, here is a great blog post by our VP of Data & Analytics)

    Hope this helps clear up where the data in the post is originating!  

    08/07/2008 08:57 PM by Sara Bonert {Real Estate Internet Marketing} (Zillow)


    Spencer that is some great information to have.  It happens with refinancing a home as well.  When I ask the client what they believe the home is worth, they are ALWAYS over in the estimate.  Then when the appraisal comes in far lower than thier expectations, the just want to argue and put it on the appraiser.  People are strange.

    08/13/2008 12:35 AM by Thomas Hargreaves (Teamwork Financial Services)


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    Real Estate - Other: Spencer Rascoff (Zillow)
    Spencer Rascoff
    Seattle, WA
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